Bush says does not support independence for Taiwan -(Bush Shafts Taiwan, mine)

Reuters ^ | 10-26-02

[tallhappy]

CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush said on Friday the United States would use its influence to ensure China and Taiwan settle their differences peacefully and promised to make it clear to Taipei that Washington does not support independence.

In a news conference with Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Bush said the United States stood by the "one China" policy, which acknowledges that Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of China.

"The 'one China' policy means that the issue ought to be resolved peacefully," Bush said.

"We've got influence with some in the region. We intend to make sure that the issue is resolved peacefully, and that includes making it clear that we do not support independence," Bush added.

Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, has voiced support for a referendum on formal independence from China.

The move outraged Beijing, which views the island as a renegade province and a linchpin in Sino-U.S. relations.

Beijing had hoped Bush would repeat a pledge not to back independence for Taiwan, which China says must eventually be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Nationalists headed by Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists. Washington shifted diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979.

But the United States has offered Taiwan the biggest arms package in a decade and Bush has pledged to do "whatever it takes" to help the democratically governed island protect itself.

Bush did not repeat that pledge at Friday's news conference.

But during a visit to China earlier this year, he said, "When my country makes an agreement, we stick with it, and there is (something) called the Taiwan Relations Act and I honour that act, which says we will help Taiwan defend herself if provoked."

China says it is seriously concerned about the U.S. warming to Taiwan under Bush and has called on Washington to halt military contacts and arms sales to the island.

[philman_36]

I am just telling you the situation in Taiwan.
As you see it or as it is. You're awfully short of anything besides opinion.
These are just some facts maybe you weren't aware of.
Show me the facts. All I have so far, as far as I can tell, is your opinion.

[philman_36]

Taiwan's fast economic days are over.
Taiwan Economy Returns to Growth Monday, 20/5/2
Taiwan's economy grew 0.89% in the first three months of 2002. This is lower than some private sector forecasts but higher that the official Government prediction. As a result of the better than expected figure the Taiwan Government has raised its full year growth forecast to 2.55%. While this return to growth is welcome news, other statistics - such as those for imports - show that domestic demand remains weak. The recovery is fragile.

It seems that "opinions" are everywhere.

[formosaplastics]

Um, are you not aware that Chen won in 2000 only because the two pro-opposition parties split the opposition vote? 62% of Taiwan's electorate actually didn't vote for Chen. In addition, Chen's popularity now is the lowest it's ever been, for good reason.

Sure, China still has 850 mil. peasants or so. China's still a developing country. Nevertheless, Taiwanese still invest billions of dollars there and move there, and this year China became the #1 destination for foreign direct investment worldwide.

[formosaplastics]

You consider 0.89% growth to be "fast" growth? Strange, no one in Taiwan does.

[formosaplastics]

Um, you think Taiwanese feel about happy about their economy these days? Really? Hahahahaha

[philman_36]

Are you even aware that in the last 2 years, over 1 mil. Taiwanese have actually moved to the mainland?
Are you even aware of the restrictions on hiring PRC nationals and bringing them to Taiwan?
These restrictions make Taiwan's business environment less internationally competitive, as a majority of AmCham member companies now have operations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Work permit restrictions make it difficult for them to rotate Chinese staff to Taiwan for meetings, to participate in training activities, or to work longer-term. Businesses would benefit if government agencies worked together to formulate rules that facilitated rather than obstructed global business plans, which now often include markets on the mainland.
I may know more than you think. Don't patronize. If I don't know I can sure find out for myself, from many places.

[philman_36]

Shall I just go ahead and assume that you're pro-Chinese and anti-Taiwan and that anything I might say positively about Taiwan will be taken negatively by you?
If so I'll just go ahead and end this discussion. You seem very adamant about pushing an anti-Taiwan agenda no matter what I show.

[philman_36]

You consider 0.89% growth to be "fast" growth?
No, that isn't, but I didn't state that it was "fast", did I?
You're attributing things to me that I didn't say (putting words in my mouth).

[batter]

Here are some international articles on the subject to put things in perspective:
MOFA: Taiwan's interests not harmed
Post-summit, the score is even
Texas summit yields little for Jiang
No surprises from summit
Taiwan: interests not dented in Bush-Jiang talks
All the above were taken via ChiCom Watch
Basically, my impression is that nothing has changed, particularly given Pres. Bush's statement re: the TRA. Further, none of the press agencies (including the socialist leaning ones besides Reuters) have played up the comment to be a victory for the PRC. There are still a few days for this to play out but I think the "no surprises from summit" title sums the whole thing up fairly well. Thus far everyone is in consensus that the summit was, as expected, a wash.

FWIW, here's an neat editorial I found regarding Taiwan continuing with a peaceful attitude:
Missile threat to Taiwan

Philman & maui (heads-up) - ignore 'formosaplastics' (signed up 2002-10-27) s/he's just a PRC agitprop that has gone by several other monikers such as AIG and latourette. They've been banned/booted from FR several times but are, evidently, too dumb to learn. As a result, freepers familiar with this agitprop have just started to ignore his/her posts (trust me - it really is like talking to a mind-numbed robot).

[BillCompton]

Well I had concluded that you were just an arrogant pr!ck, but you raise an interesting parallel. It is sometimes hard to tell the difference between a troll who just likes arguing for its own sake and those that actually think about things. Sorry for the mistake.

So the parallel is Germany re-uniting with a break away province. Yeah, that fits. As I recall, Hitler described it as the most nervous time for him because he would have had to withdraw his forces in the face of British and French tanks.

Bush as Chamberlain? The situation is the similar, but the men aren't. Also, China is not as bold as Hitler. Finally, the Taiwanese, as it stands today, could rebuff a Chinese attack without our help. Obviously, China is taking steps to change that situation. There have been arguments for asymetric tactics that might neutralize the Taiwanese advantage, but they would be highly risky and the U.S. would have to fail to respond. It is certainly something to worry about, but my judgement is that it is a future scenario, not one for today.

I appreciate your thoughtful approach to this matter, but there are some real fools here that think this is just a contest to see who has the bigger d!ck. Diplomatically, it is very tough. The Chinese side, as they like to say, has some legitimate ties to Taiwan. China, I believe, is now Taiwan's biggest trading partner. True, the Chinese have been belacose in the last few years, and true they are preparing to be able to make a credible threat to invade Taiwan by increasing their sea-lift capacity and moving a gazillion rockets into position. They are also buying credible fighters from Russia. Their problem, the way I see it, is they don't have the technology to coordinate them. No doubt they are working on that capability, but we are not just sitting still either. The are known to be developing laser weapons, but we are too. They are aquiring Russian subs and are building some new ones. Pretty good diesals, but nothing like our Los Angeles class and a damn site short of our Seawolf. The blue water navy will take a long time and I don't think they even have plans for a carrier. They are developing (or maybe bought from Russia?) some pretty scary supersonic antiship missiles. They have around 100 divisions. Most are poorly equipped and trained. They are doing some modernization, but coordination is beyond their capabilities. Space wise, they lag far behind, but thanks to Klintoon and Loral and Lee, they are farther than they should be.

Bottom line is that Taiwan faces an uncertain future, but so do the Chinese. I still maintain that Imperialism is impractical in the modern world; bad for business. I think the power of business interests will supercede the political interests of the communist and the business guys will win. As long as we don't provoke them by doing something stupid, call me nieve, but I think things will work out politically.

Regarding the show I saw, the couple simply said the "surpisingly, Taiwan's young people dislike America by a higher percentage than all but one of the Arab countries.

[4CJ]

Sounds about right....

For a pubbie. But hey, what else is new. When W signed the unconstitutional piece of legislation - Campaign Finance Reform Incumbent Protection Act - we should have guessed.

[Enemy Of The State]

Dude? Do you ever get writers cramp? hehe.

[philman_36]

Well I had concluded that you were just an arrogant pr!ck, but you raise an interesting parallel.
I'm sure many more do so also.
Sorry for the mistake.
No problem. Thanks for sticking it out with me. I admit I can be circular and indirect at times. I'm also trying to see if the other person thinks about things too.
Bush as Chamberlain?
Nah, I don't think so either (with the caveat "at this time"), but I don't care much for the position. A future president/administration? Very likely, especially if it is a Democrat sucking up to the Reds for some favor (interesting parallels still). We'll see.
It is certainly something to worry about, but my judgement is that it is a future scenario, not one for today.
See above.
I liked the rest of your comments. China is rapidly building up their military and the missile threats and their expanding navy are evidence of that. Let's not forget their ability to manufacture small arms. Ship with 2000 AK-47s mentioned. Productivity is key.

[philman_36]

...s/he's just a PRC agitprop...
As I assumed.

[ffrancone]

That sounds like the consensus of world opinion before WWI that war was no longer possible because the economies of the world had become so intertwined that war was irrational.

Honest, that's what almost all right thinking people believed just before the most hideous war in human history.

[Quix]

Not usually. Type 80-90nwpm.

I do miss the split keyboard I left with my "dry" son [Chinese term for 'God-son] in Taipei. It was more comfortable for hours of typing.

But the cordless Logitech has merit in other respects.

I did strain a muscle inside my lower right arm trimming bougainvillae in Hawaii for my hosts. It can trouble me a bit.

Believe it or not, I try not to write unless I think I have something to say. But brevity is not my strong point unless I work real hard at it. That's often more work than I want to bother with.

I don't often know if I'm more likely to be misconstrued because I wasn't precise enough or because I said too much.

Nevertheless, your comment is no doubt considered a fitting one by many hereon.

[formosaplastics]

Economic globalization wasn't such a big factor then as it is now. Countries today are far richer and trade with each other far more today than they did back then. International trade as a percentage of global GDP is about 30% now and expected to hit 40% by 2010. Even during the EP-3 incident, Bush didn't even consider cutting off trade with China because he knew it would hurt America's economy and his election chances. Even during the recent US West Coast port strike, Bush had to intervene because if he let it continue for much longer, millions of downstream US jobs were at stake. US politicians want to keep the economy healthy so as to stay in power, not lose elections. China has permanently replaced Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, etc. as the source of low-cost goods for Americans. This is a phenomenon which is going to last over the next several decades. Without such low-priced goods, America could never have attained the high standard of living and low inflation it has attained. America is essentially dependent on China over the next several decades to keep America's standard of living high.

[formosaplastics]

I'm a Taiwanese. Most Taiwanese don't want independence. I suggest you start listening to the Taiwanese mainstream rather than foolishly believe every Taiwanese is seeking independence and being all gung-ho about defending us. Taiwanese are practical people. We know that business is what made Taiwan rich in the first place. A wealthy middle-class is the basis of Taiwan's democracy, in fact. Some Taiwanese actually think that Taiwan's democracy can remain healthy and vibrant even if Taiwan's businesses (particularly hi-tech) which are the foundation of Taiwan's wealth don't make adjustments to new economic realities. These people are born fools. These people are living in a dreamworld. Taiwan gets 50% of its GDP from exports, but Taiwan's exporters are all moving to the mainland now. The best chance Taiwan has is to invest in China, thereby keeping Taiwan's own businesses healthy, and returning profits back to Taiwan.

[formosaplastics]

Sure, I'm aware that Taiwan's self-defeating government restricts PRC workers from entering Taiwan. This is just another reason why Taiwanese and foreigin investors are abandoning Taiwan. Many US companies in Taiwan are the ones actually lobbying Taiwan's government to lift these restrictions. But since Taiwan doesn't and these firms still want PRC workers, these firms end up abandoning Taiwan altogether and relocating their plants in the mainland! See, I told you Pres. Chen is a true moron. While he thinks he's saving Taiwan, he's actually accelerating capital flight and Taiwan's death! Beijing is probably silently pleased that Pres. Chen is such a dolt because it has only resulted in tens of billions of dollars more leaving Taiwan for the mainland.

[formosaplastics]

The Taiwanese leaving Taiwan and moving to China these days are Taiwan's best and brightest hi-tech entrepreneurs, the people who made Taiwan great in the first place. While these people continue to leave Taiwan, Taiwan's Pres. is too busy talking independence and scaring away foreign investors to even address Taiwan's fundamental economic problems. As I said before, Taiwan's military budget has hit an 8-year low due to Taiwan's economic problems. Over the long term, an island of 22 mil. cannot compete economically or militarily with a nation of 1.2 bil.