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To: philman_36
Well I had concluded that you were just an arrogant pr!ck, but you raise an interesting parallel. It is sometimes hard to tell the difference between a troll who just likes arguing for its own sake and those that actually think about things. Sorry for the mistake.

So the parallel is Germany re-uniting with a break away province. Yeah, that fits. As I recall, Hitler described it as the most nervous time for him because he would have had to withdraw his forces in the face of British and French tanks.

Bush as Chamberlain? The situation is the similar, but the men aren't. Also, China is not as bold as Hitler. Finally, the Taiwanese, as it stands today, could rebuff a Chinese attack without our help. Obviously, China is taking steps to change that situation. There have been arguments for asymetric tactics that might neutralize the Taiwanese advantage, but they would be highly risky and the U.S. would have to fail to respond. It is certainly something to worry about, but my judgement is that it is a future scenario, not one for today.

I appreciate your thoughtful approach to this matter, but there are some real fools here that think this is just a contest to see who has the bigger d!ck. Diplomatically, it is very tough. The Chinese side, as they like to say, has some legitimate ties to Taiwan. China, I believe, is now Taiwan's biggest trading partner. True, the Chinese have been belacose in the last few years, and true they are preparing to be able to make a credible threat to invade Taiwan by increasing their sea-lift capacity and moving a gazillion rockets into position. They are also buying credible fighters from Russia. Their problem, the way I see it, is they don't have the technology to coordinate them. No doubt they are working on that capability, but we are not just sitting still either. The are known to be developing laser weapons, but we are too. They are aquiring Russian subs and are building some new ones. Pretty good diesals, but nothing like our Los Angeles class and a damn site short of our Seawolf. The blue water navy will take a long time and I don't think they even have plans for a carrier. They are developing (or maybe bought from Russia?) some pretty scary supersonic antiship missiles. They have around 100 divisions. Most are poorly equipped and trained. They are doing some modernization, but coordination is beyond their capabilities. Space wise, they lag far behind, but thanks to Klintoon and Loral and Lee, they are farther than they should be.

Bottom line is that Taiwan faces an uncertain future, but so do the Chinese. I still maintain that Imperialism is impractical in the modern world; bad for business. I think the power of business interests will supercede the political interests of the communist and the business guys will win. As long as we don't provoke them by doing something stupid, call me nieve, but I think things will work out politically.

Regarding the show I saw, the couple simply said the "surpisingly, Taiwan's young people dislike America by a higher percentage than all but one of the Arab countries.
250 posted on 10/27/2002 6:28:56 AM PST by BillCompton
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To: BillCompton
Well I had concluded that you were just an arrogant pr!ck, but you raise an interesting parallel.
I'm sure many more do so also.
Sorry for the mistake.
No problem. Thanks for sticking it out with me. I admit I can be circular and indirect at times. I'm also trying to see if the other person thinks about things too.
Bush as Chamberlain?
Nah, I don't think so either (with the caveat "at this time"), but I don't care much for the position. A future president/administration? Very likely, especially if it is a Democrat sucking up to the Reds for some favor (interesting parallels still). We'll see.
It is certainly something to worry about, but my judgement is that it is a future scenario, not one for today.
See above.
I liked the rest of your comments. China is rapidly building up their military and the missile threats and their expanding navy are evidence of that. Let's not forget their ability to manufacture small arms. Ship with 2000 AK-47s mentioned. Productivity is key.
253 posted on 10/27/2002 7:14:49 AM PST by philman_36
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