California Puzzle -- Poll Shows Simon Beating Davis

Creators Syndicate ^ | 10-21-02 | Bob Novak

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The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association (CTA), made available to Republicans Friday morning, was startling.

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis. They also force a decision on George W. Bush that must be made instantly. Should he pay a final one-day visit to San Diego, perhaps next Monday, to affirm Simon as the Republican Party's California standard-bearer in good standing? Or should he not risk the damage to his prestige in the Golden State that could result from association with a drubbing?

At stake is not just the way the nation's most populous state will be governed for the next four years. The baroque Simon-Davis contest is drenched in 2004 presidential politics. President Bush's friends here are concentrating on his becoming the first Republican to carry the state since his father in 1988. Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, non-performing and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline. Democrats enjoy immense advantages in money, organization and even the erstwhile Republican superiority in getting out the absentee vote.

On top of this, Simon's error-plagued campaign shows that a shakedown candidacy for the county board of supervisors or state assembly would have helped. Indeed, the conventional wisdom remains that Davis will win easily against a man best known for being the son of financier William E. Simon, a former secretary of the Treasury.

Diluting these immense advantages, Gray Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him "another Nixon." He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.

The poll for the CTA (by Washington-based Republican pollster Jan Van Lohuizen) showed in the Tuesday-through-Thursday three-day roll last week that 52.9 percent of Californians think the state is on the "wrong track" compared with 30.4 percent who say it is going in the "right direction." Davis has never recovered from his handling of last year's energy problems. Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular. In response, the governor moved quickly to get 17 of the 22 caucus members to sign an endorsement. Questions cannot be definitively answered until Election Day. Will the lingering undecided voters just stay home? Could an usually light turnout defeat Davis? Has Simon, the victim of Davis's unremitting attack ads and his own mishaps, become unelectable in California? There are loyal, well-placed California Republicans who feel Simon should never have run in the first place, is a sure loser, and that the president should stay out of the Golden State for the next two weeks. Published reports suggest that he might come into Rep. Gary Condit's district in the Central Valley to support an underdog Republican bid for Condit's successor. That won't happen. If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon. This is a test for the president and his political team. A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats. Bush backers in California distrust the CTA poll, and fear humiliation for the president. A gambler would come here, but Republican presidents usually don't gamble.

[daviddennis]

I remember in the last reporting period he had something like $4 million left. So now he has $11m? That should mean we have about $3 million a week, so he can spend about as much as Davis here on in, especially since with this news contributions will be way up.

The new polls make me think Simon ads are working well. I read one earlier poll that said Davis was at 48% and Simon at 33. So the new Simon ads have pushed Davis down to 33 and Simon up to 34.

That's not bad for a week or so of heavy advertising. That also shows how fragile Davis' support is - from 48% to 33% is some huge jump, even if we allow for statistical error and the like.

I guess we should now change the mix so there are more positive ads. And bring back the Maids! I just loved those funny ads; if they had a chance to run with any frequency, I think they'd blast Davis' dull creations right out of people's memory.

D

[SierraWasp]

"turning into a moderate to strong monsoon throughout the election day"

Careful Gramps, we ain't got no Auburn Dam yet an the next Pineapple Express could over-top Folsom and flush that turd right outa the Crapitol!!!

COME ON RAIN!!!

[ElkGroveDan]

STATEWIDE PING

[NormsRevenge]

ADMIN - PLease zap #42 post. My first screwup of the day , I think.

;-)Thanks

You Can Make A Difference! FReepWatch !! What's Goin' Down?
...DATE../..TIME...	...CITY../..SITE...	...ADDRESS..	...MORE INFORMATION...
Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm	Chico, CA	CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico	CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs
Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm	Eureka, CA	FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay	Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-)
Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm	Palo Alto, CA	BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road	Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster.
Tuesday 10/22/2002	Los Angeles, CA	Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ?	Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc.
Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm	San Francisco, CA	West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally City Hall - across from the Civic Center Plaza. Carlton Goodlett Place between McAllister St. and Grove St.	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available.

Updated 10:00 AM 10/21/02

[homeschool mama]

SIMON bump!!! DUMP DAVIS!

[Carry_Okie]

The only thing that is "puzzling" to the media is that the campaign they are waging agains Simon (magically not regarded as a gift in kind) isn't working better than it is. Perhaps their advertising time isn't worth what they say it is either!

[SevenofNine]

Hey ELK do you read Robert Novak this morning he said that ole Simon is smackdown Grey Out as b**** he is according to poll

I saw the poll from Sac-Town Bee site Bill making Grey his b****

[mombonn]

Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

What an absurd statement. IF he wins, it will only be because he is seen as the lesser of two evils.

[mvpel]

The Silicon Valley NRA Members' Council is organizing a phone-banking project for Simon for the next two weeks - please e-mail Mark Towber if you are in the San Jose/Santa Clara area and are interested in volunteering.

[litany_of_lies]

"Probably indicates a low turnout."

Disagree. It means that 30% of the voters are undecided two weeks before the freaking election (after subracting 2-3% for the Greenie)!

SIMON CAN WIN, and W has nothing to lose by coming out and supporting him one last time. If Doofus wins, he was "expected" to, and the margin will certainly be closer than Bush-Gore in 2002, so GOP is gaining headway regardless of outcome. If Simon wins, it reinforces W's already high popularity.

Where's the risk? Karl Rove, get him out there!

[Tony in Hawaii]

Agreed, and if Davis wins, it will only be by a very tiny margin. No dishonor in that.

Camejo the Green will probably get close to 10% of the vote this time around, which could possibly open up a permanent split in the liberal coalition.

[Tony in Hawaii]

1966

[Poohbah]

"Probably indicates a low turnout."

Disagree. It means that 30% of the voters are undecided two weeks before the freaking election (after subracting 2-3% for the Greenie)!

Disagree with your disagreement. A 30% undecided two weeks out indicates that a LOT of folks will NEVER decide, and will thus not vote.

[tubebender]

Yard signs are a interesting story in Eureka. The yards with "Rat signs do not have many Davis signs and those that do have very small ones. There are more Simon signs but not enough. Davis is here at 3:00PM hope I can get close.

I will not be surprised if the Greenes come in with 12-15 % of the vote which will help Simon.

Man am I glad FR is up and running.Any word what happened?

[Gophack]

My mom's old college roommate lives in Eureka because Grass Valley was too conservative for her. She's the one who told me I shouldn't move to Idaho because "that's were all the white supremists are". Please. Eureka will probably go TWENTY PERCENT for the greenie! (No offense ... I also have a pro-life Republican cousin who lives up there!)

We need to get Simon signs out. We blanketed our precinct with them as best we could and have like 15 up in the neighborhood. I think other people can do the same. Yard signs are more effective than road signs! Every Freeper should have a Simon sign in his/her/their yard AND convince two friends/neighbors to put a Simon sign up. Agree?

[Gophack]

That's not bad for a week or so of heavy advertising. That also shows how fragile Davis' support is - from 48% to 33% is some huge jump, even if we allow for statistical error and the like.

Different polls, different criteria. The CTA poll is a track, and likely voters. The Field Poll and the L.A. Times polls are ALL voters or ALL ELIGIBLE voters, and they don't track for likely voters.

I think we're up or down one, and we have 15 days to solidify the vote, get OUR PEOPLE TO THE POLLS, and DUMP DAVIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Varmint Al]

Here is a poll taken on the Jesse's Hunting Page.

Poll choices	Votes	Statistics
Davis	2	[4.76%]
Simon	40	[95.24%]
Other	0	[0.00%]
Don't vote	0	[0.00%]
Varmint Al - You have already voted in this poll

Tells you where hunters stand in CA. I don't know what is wrong with the 2 misguided voters!

Related thread: How can any hunter support the Democrat party?

Good Hunting... from Varmint Al

[tubebender]

Eureka will probably go TWENTY PERCENT for the greenie!

That would be great as that would help our guy win the Assembly seat for the First District from liberal Patty Berg.

Something that concerns me is the fact the local 'Rat committee has become deeply involved in our city council and board of Supervisors races here. These races used to be non partisan.

BTW...I didn't make it to the Davis gig.

[tubebender]

Nice profile page...