California Puzzle -- Poll Shows Simon Beating Davis

Creators Syndicate ^ | 10-21-02 | Bob Novak

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The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association (CTA), made available to Republicans Friday morning, was startling.

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis. They also force a decision on George W. Bush that must be made instantly. Should he pay a final one-day visit to San Diego, perhaps next Monday, to affirm Simon as the Republican Party's California standard-bearer in good standing? Or should he not risk the damage to his prestige in the Golden State that could result from association with a drubbing?

At stake is not just the way the nation's most populous state will be governed for the next four years. The baroque Simon-Davis contest is drenched in 2004 presidential politics. President Bush's friends here are concentrating on his becoming the first Republican to carry the state since his father in 1988. Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, non-performing and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline. Democrats enjoy immense advantages in money, organization and even the erstwhile Republican superiority in getting out the absentee vote.

On top of this, Simon's error-plagued campaign shows that a shakedown candidacy for the county board of supervisors or state assembly would have helped. Indeed, the conventional wisdom remains that Davis will win easily against a man best known for being the son of financier William E. Simon, a former secretary of the Treasury.

Diluting these immense advantages, Gray Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him "another Nixon." He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.

The poll for the CTA (by Washington-based Republican pollster Jan Van Lohuizen) showed in the Tuesday-through-Thursday three-day roll last week that 52.9 percent of Californians think the state is on the "wrong track" compared with 30.4 percent who say it is going in the "right direction." Davis has never recovered from his handling of last year's energy problems. Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular. In response, the governor moved quickly to get 17 of the 22 caucus members to sign an endorsement. Questions cannot be definitively answered until Election Day. Will the lingering undecided voters just stay home? Could an usually light turnout defeat Davis? Has Simon, the victim of Davis's unremitting attack ads and his own mishaps, become unelectable in California? There are loyal, well-placed California Republicans who feel Simon should never have run in the first place, is a sure loser, and that the president should stay out of the Golden State for the next two weeks. Published reports suggest that he might come into Rep. Gary Condit's district in the Central Valley to support an underdog Republican bid for Condit's successor. That won't happen. If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon. This is a test for the president and his political team. A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats. Bush backers in California distrust the CTA poll, and fear humiliation for the president. A gambler would come here, but Republican presidents usually don't gamble.

[randita]

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent.

Davis, the incumbent, garnering only 34% of the vote-unbelievable if true. After raising and spending gazillions of $$$, Davis only manages to get a paltry 34.2% of support.

Looks like 32% of the voters are undecided still--also amazing.

[section9]

It's 6:15 am and I'm on my way out to put up SIMON for Governor signs! This article is a big boost to my efforts and I hope others also. I haven't seen ONE Davis sign but they surely have alot of Simon signs hidden somewhere as they are disappearing pretty quickly...we have more! Let's press on to save CA!

This is a sign that I have been waiting for.

Davis' people are lackluster and not motivated. This isn't like his first campaign four years ago.

They have no enthusiasm.

That is our hidden weapon, turnout in a close election. If Davis' base was energized, Simon would have absolutely no chance, such is the numeric superiority of Democrats in California.

As it is, even the liberal papers are holding their noses when endorsing Simon. So imagine how the activist base is feeling: not happy.

I get the feeling that despite all of Simon's missteps, his base understands that he's been wronged, and may decide to go out and storm the polls for the guy.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Coop]

It's 6:15 am and I'm on my way out to put up SIMON for Governor signs!

Outstanding work!

[frmrda]

Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular.

Wouldn't it be the height of irony if the reason this scumbag lost was because, for once, he actually tried to do the right thing. I can see it now

The Latino caucus: Don't Vote for Davis - He actually followed the law for a change.

[Judith Anne]

I've never done that before, but if you post one, I'll bump it.

[I_Love_My_Husband]

I just did and I pinged you :)

[Judith Anne]

Gotcha! Thanks...;-D

[eureka!]

Good job DB. I'm out there talking, cajoling etc. too. Simon can win this one, and will. Turnout, turnout, turnout.

Coop--What these numbers tell me is that grayout's $30 million in negatives worked to keep Simon down. Anecdotally, those I talk to don't like Simon but don't know why. In speaking with them though, they hate Grayout. Simon is going to surprise many...

[Saundra Duffy]

Yahoo! We had a great DUMP DAVIS rally Saturday! Simon is on a roll! GO, SIMON! For victory & freedom!!!

[NEWwoman]

bump and dump Davis

[eureka!]

For what it's worth, I thnk this poll shows where Grayout is loathed and his numbers will not go up, so he only tries to bring Simon down...

[NormsRevenge]

Well,Well,Well ...

Faith .. Mustard seed .. ;-)

You Can Make A Difference! FReepWatch !! What's Goin' Down?
...DATE../..TIME...	...CITY../..SITE...	...ADDRESS..	...MORE INFORMATION...
Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm	Chico, CA	CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico	CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs
Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm	Eureka, CA	FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay	Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-)
Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm	Palo Alto, CA	BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road	Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster.
Tuesday 10/22/2002	Los Angeles, CA	Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ?	Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc.
Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm	San Francisco, CA	West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally San Francisco City Hall at the Civic Center	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available.

Updated 21:00 PM 10/20/02

[NormsRevenge]

Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, non-performing and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline.

WHEWWW... Nowhere to go But UP !

DUMP DAVI$ - FIRE Davi$

Deep Fry the Debate Chicken!!!




GO SIMON

***

Tom McClintock for CA State Controller
***

Dick Ackerman for CA Attorney General

[mlo]

C'mon simon, stay on target. Stay on target...

Use the force, Bill.

[NEWwoman]

Right! Defeat Darth Davis!

[Gophack]

While I find it hard to trust the CTA (and why would they give us these numbers???) I also remember that the actual teachers as opposed to the leadership really, really hate Davis. They are frustrated because he suspended their teacher tax credit, stopped their bonuses, and really hasn't done much for education, though he has done a lot for the trial lawyers and bureaucrats. Classroom teachers ARE frustrated, as well they should be. I hope they skip the race or vote for Simon in protest ... at least Simon has some REAL ideas for getting teachers and parents involved in their children's education -- namely, getting the lawyers and bureaucrats out of the way so teachers can teach and parents can be involved.

I think Simon squeaks by. Yes, he has had a series of missteps, but nothing fatal. The press -- and even Simon's friends! (or so-called friends) -- have made mountains out of molehills, and we knew that would happen. We can't abandon ship. We know how the press operates. I haven't seen ONE Davis sign on anyone's lawn, but every day I see Simon signs popping up in my neighborhood ... in places I least expect them. In every parking lot I drive into -- the gym, the store, and even a furniture store over the weekend with less than 25 cars parked -- I see a Simon bumper sticker.

We have the momentum, we have the message. We Freepers and conservatives need to help spread it. This is a grassroots campaign. Davis has pilfered millions of dollars from PACs and special interests to trash Simon with $25 million in negative and false ads over the summer. Still, Simon raised more money during the last reporting period! ($11 million to $10 million). The press doesn't report THAT, do they?

For all the missteps, Simon is a good man and a good candidate. He'll make a GREAT governor because he's smart, has solid ideas, and isn't a career politician. He's a businessman, a husband, a father, a Christian. He's someone who actually cares about leaving this state better than he found it ... unlike Gray Davis who is raping California every day and enjoying it.

We have our calling, people. 15 days. It's up to us ... and it reminds me of a quote I can't remember who said:

I am only one.
But still I am one.
I cannot do everything.
But I can do something.
And because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do the something I can do.

[Irish Eyes]

bump

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Memories:

California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis

AND......................

...to see what bad, bad things Davis has done... - CLICK HERE

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

[Grampa Dave]

Thanks for posting this.

This is why the leftwing maggots who control the fish wraps of the state are slamming Simon 24/7 and admitting that they are in bed with the whore Davi$. Their polls show that Simon is either closing the gap or is ahead of their whore Davi$.

This is why the phoney conservatives on Free Republic are spending so much time trashing Simon and saying he is going to lose.

Novak is doing his typical smash any republican that he doesn't agree with. He and the POS Billy Kristol are nothing but Rat moles who have worked for decades to screw up Republicans running for office. Simon has no time for Novak, so Novak trashes Simon. Typical of this elitist POS pretending to be a conservative to trash Simon when Rat polls show that Simon is ahead and gaining strength.

The Rats own internal polls show that Davis is in big trouble. They and their buddies the phoney conservatives will trash Simon and try to paint him as a loser 24/7 until 6 November.

Now, if we can have a mild monsoon starting on Monday 4 November and turning into a moderate to strong monsoon throughout the election day, this will help.

Ignore the trash talkers who hate to see Republicans win.

Just go vote for Simon 5 November and get as many friends and relatives to vote for him as possible.

[Grampa Dave]

Thanks for posting this.

This is why the leftwing maggots who control the fish wraps of the state are slamming Simon 24/7 and admitting that they are in bed with the whore Davi$. Their polls show that Simon is either closing the gap or is ahead of their whore Davi$.

This is why the phoney conservatives on Free Republic are spending so much time trashing Simon and saying he is going to lose.

Novak is doing his typical smash any republican that he doesn't agree with. He and the POS Billy Kristol are nothing but Rat moles who have worked for decades to screw up Republicans running for office. Simon has no time for Novak, so Novak trashes Simon. Typical of this elitist POS pretending to be a conservative to trash Simon when Rat polls show that Simon is ahead and gaining strength.

The Rats own internal polls show that Davis is in big trouble. They and their buddies the phoney conservatives will trash Simon and try to paint him as a loser 24/7 until 6 November.

Now, if we can have a mild monsoon starting on Monday 4 November and turning into a moderate to strong monsoon throughout the election day, this will help.

Ignore the trash talkers who hate to see Republicans win.

Just go vote for Simon 5 November and get as many friends and relatives to vote for him as possible.