Posted on 10/08/2002 5:32:09 AM PDT by Pharmboy
Experts in mass murder and the profiling of killers say the sniper who has killed six people in the Washington metropolitan area does not fit the usual categories, and that may make the case much harder to solve.
Most mass murderers, for example kill to settle a grudge or avenge a perceived wrong, targeting victims who are relatives, colleagues or members of an ethnic group they hate, the experts said.
The majority of gunmen committing multiple murders in recent years also used semiautomatic weapons, fired several times, and ended up either killing themselves or remaining at the scene to be captured.
But the sniper in the Washington area has picked his victims seemingly at random, firing a single round from a considerable distance and escaping while leaving behind no obvious clues. He has used a hunting or military-style rifle, leaving no shell casings for the police to investigate as evidence until one was found today.
The profilers know that this killer is cool and cautious. They do not know much more than that.
"Since there is no evidence of a motive, or evidence that this person is trying to get even with society, what is left is killing for sport," said James Alan Fox, the Lipman family professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University, who has written several books on mass murderers.
The sniper's use of a single shot also suggests less anger than mass killers normally have, Professor Fox said. "If he was expressing his anger or frustration, he would continue to fire, creating a blood bath. But this guy is coolly and calmly finding victims, taking a very accurate shot, and then escaping."
"I think he is hunting or target shooting with humans," Professor Fox said.
Raymond Pierce, a retired New York City police detective and criminal profiler, said he could think of only one similar case. In 1994, a lone gunman set up a hunting rifle equipped with a sniper scope on a tripod outside a diner, a gas station and a Burger King restaurant in small towns in Suffolk County, N.Y., firing a single bullet each time at individuals inside.
One man was killed, a woman was badly injured and a third intended target escaped harm when bulletproof glass deflected the bullet.
The shooter turned out to be a gun enthusiast, who targeted his victims "for the thrill of it," said Lieutenant Jack Fitzpatrick of the Suffolk County police homicide department. The gunman, Peter Sylvester, was eventually tracked down, convicted and is now serving a life prison sentence, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said.
Mr. Sylvester also carried out his shootings by firing only one round each time, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said. He carefully placed a blanket beneath his rifle, and left no shell casings at the scene.
As with the Washington-area shootings of the past week, the Suffolk County shootings in 1994 created great public unease. More than 100 Suffolk County police and detectives were assigned to hunt for the sniper. The case was solved when the police received information that a Remington .35 caliber rifle had been stolen from a gun store in a burglary and that the weapon was sold to Mr. Sylvester.
A bullet recovered from the body of a man killed in the diner matched the markings of a bullet fired from the Remington, Lieutenant Fitzpatrick said.
Professor Fox said that it was unusual that the shootings were continuing. Mass killers usually end up dead or captured at the scene of their shooting, he said, or if they are not seriously emotionally disturbed and able to plan carefully, will stop their killings when the number of police in the area increases.
"But this guy may be getting an added thrill out of continuing to outwit the police even while they are looking for him," Professor Fox said, noting that there was another victim today, a 13-year-old boy shot outside a middle school in Bowie, Md.
A number of studies of mass killers have found that they usually give warning signs to friends, relatives or co-workers, talking about their grievances and threatening to take some violent act of vengeance. These studies have shown that mass killers, contrary to popular belief, do not just snap. Unfortunately, these warning signs are usually ignored until too late.
One of the most widely publicized rampage killing involved Colin Ferguson, a black man frustrated by his failed life who blamed white racism for his troubles. In December 1993, he killed 6 people and wounded 19 on the Long Island Rail Road before being subdued by other passengers.
The bloodiest rampage killing took place at a Luby's Cafeteria in Killeen, Tex., in October 1991. George Hennard, a delusional man who had told an F.B.I. agent that a secret national conspiracy of white women was plotting against him, crashed his pickup truck into the restaurant and opened fire. He killed 22 people and wounded 23 more before killing himself.
The difficulty of tracking the Washington sniper reminded Joseph Borrelli, a retired New York City chief of detectives, of a year-long wave of killings by David Berkowitz, known as Son of Sam, who shot and killed six people and wounded seven others in 1977 as they sat in their cars.
"The complete absence of a motive is very similar to Berkowitz," Mr. Borrelli said.
"We never did establish a motive," Mr. Borrelli said. "When we caught him, he claimed it was the devil talking to him through the dog; that was his story."
Mr. Pierce, the retired profiler, said the Washington sniper seemed different from the angry, emotionally unstable type of killer. "He is a very calculating person, preoccupied with escape," Mr. Pierce said. "He is not out of touch with reality."
"He may have an antisocial personality disorder, and thrive on power and control," Mr. Pierce said. "But he is not psychotic."
OK. That sounds reasonable. The sound could be dismissed as a backfire or something. Is that the idea?
He knows that a single shot is very difficult to locate by sound and a .223 is very unlikely to let out a puff of smoke unless it is fired close to dirt or dust.
And he knows to pick a variety of targets that will scare hell out of people.
BS. They're both vile in their own ways.
The sniper-serial murderer is far more dangerous to society at large--and still on the loose. No one will dispute that.
Hmmmm...
One can buy a modern bolt-action rifle to handle ANY modern ammunition, from .22 long rifle up to .50 caliber machine gun rounds (Barrett).
Probably a bolt action is more accurate that an M-16--makes little difference what kind of weapon was used; point is accuracy. This round which is really the 5.56 NATO round is an accurate round because it has a nice flater trajectory; you don't have to calculate drops or rises on the fly as you pick your target.
The point of this is that yes, maybe this is not a Moslem attack--but when you have the training video depicting this event, with the islamics practicing this for use in the United States; very difficult to conceive of any other motive; the obvious first guess is that this is an enemy attack. Why do the authorities have so much difficulty responding reasonably?
Something this cold, calculating, and precise strikes me as a highly paid assassin. Look at the precision of the shots.I know a lot of people have the physical capacity to make the shot if it were a target or a deer. How many people could make that shot looking down the scope at a child or an old man. The sheer confidence to do it in broad daylight in a congested area, especially the last incident in which the cops were on alert. A nut job would crack under the strain. The precision of the attacks. They are done in such a manner as to leave a clear escape route. I think if it is a team it vastly increases the odds that they are ex-military. Whackos don't usually come in pairs. One man could be the shooter while the other is a spotter/driver.
Then again, I may be reading way too many pulp fiction novels.
The casing could easily be a plant. Considering how careful this shooter has been otherwise, I'd be inclined to think so.
Here are some of my latest thoughts. I don't pretend to be any kind of expert but I feel the need to contribute to the discussion.
I think yesterday's shooting could tell us a few things. While the other shootings may have been staked out before hand, the school is the first of the shootings that does not have at least the appearance of complete randomness. While it is possible he picked which school at random, the fact that he picked a school shows intent. Instead of wanting to kill random people, he wanted to kill a student. While the killer(s) could get off the highway on almost any exit and find a shopping center, that is not the case with a school. That, to me, indicates a motive other than just the desire to kill. As to what that motive is, others have pointed out that the police made a big deal last Friday about how safe the schools are. It could be the motive was to taunt the police. If that is the case, I would lean away from terrorist as I don't believe their plan would change on the fly. The exception is an isolated cell acting on its own. Another possibility is that a school was always part of some overall plan of terror. As we all know, recent proclamations from AQ have mentioned schools specifically.
I think it is very likely that commuter traffic is part of the escape plan. Driving patterns are typically much different and much lighter on the weekend. If true, this shows that the killer(s) have thought through how not to get caught. I think that rules out a mass murderer but does not rule out a serial killer or terrorist.
This is important. I believe there are at least two people involved in the killings - a shooter and a driver. Early news reports had police on the look out for two men. It makes a big difference if there are one or two. Serial killers almost always work alone. For me, multiple perps leans toward terrorism rather than thrill kills but could be either.
That only one shot is taken shows discipline - a preconceived operational decision by a group or individual. That indicates planning which means this isn't something someone just decided to do one day and then did it. To me, it also indicates that the shooter is both skilled and cautious. Skilled because the shooter has the confidence that one shot will do the trick and cautious because the one-shot-and-run method makes escape much easier. Note, also, that where the victims were wounded, the shooter did not feel it necessary to take a second shot to finish the job. More on that next.
The first six victims were kills on Wednesday and Thursday, all head shots on more-or-less stationary victims. The victims on Friday and Monday were wounded with body shots. Also, it sounds like the wounded victims were moving targets - a woman loading packages into her car and a student walking to school. The body shots instead of head shots could be because the targets were moving or because the shooter set up farther away. The latter indicates a cautiousness while it is not clear to me what the former indicates. It is clear that the shooter did intentionally choose head shots for some victims and body shots for others. That tells me the shooter has knowledge beyond the average citizen who would most likely not think of such things. It might also mean that the killer does not require that all shots result in death. After the Friday shooting, it would be clear to the shooter that a body shot does not guarantee death yet he took another one on Monday and, sure enough, only wounded the victim. For me, that lessens the likelyhood it is a thrill killer who would want the kill by taken a head shot even if he missed and leans more towards terrorists who inflict terror whether the victim is killed or only wounded.
I realize that most of what I have written is speculation. My hope is that by posting these thoughts, I might spark an idea in someone else's mind and contribute to the collective knowledge that could lead to the resolution of these crimes.
You have learned from Charley Gibson and Diane Sawyere very well. Continue to obey them, and mindlessly react to any images they flash before your eyes.
I would dispute it. In the context of war, a terrorist sniper is a mosquito. If he quits now, people will eventually calm down. If he continues, he will be caught. If he has an agenda other than simply killing, the net will eventually close.
I do no wish to minimize the pain felt by the families and the victim-survivors, but we have had bigger incidents than this.
If it turns out to be an act of war, it will backfire against the perps. Already, I think it will be in people's minds when the Homeland Security Act is voted on.
Yes, and yes.
David Marshall "Carbine" Williams developed his prototype for the M1 carbine using hand tools -- mainly a file -- and scrap steel. There are Pakistanis who produce Enfield and Kalashnikov rifles today, using the same techniques.
Some of the finest bolt-action hunting rifles made today are built around the M98 Mauser action. Military Mausers using this action are available on the wholesale market right now for under $100, in original military trim. M98 indicates the year 1898, the year in which Peter Paul Mauser perfected the design.
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