Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

That would be it! We would always travel from IL to FLA after school got out for the summer. My folks owned a small, ma & pa motel in Central FLA, where we kids and my mom would spend our summers.

[WillVoteForFood]

Hey dennis1x, I think you are probably right, but the track listed at www.hurricanetrack.com seems to indicate a right hand turn still needs to take place to get Houston/Galveston completely out of the ballgame. Link below. Whatcha think?

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java/seatemp.html

[Diddle E. Squat]

No, some of the NOAA statements show winds to reach 125 knots 24 hours from now, before landfall. IIRC, that works out to about 150mph. So Drudge is correct.

[BearCub]

Um, the storm is already above 150 mph.

[DETAILER]

Mercifully, it looks like it will tear up the Louisiana swamp between Lake Charles and Lafayette (if you believe the Weather Channel). No offense to anyone but there ain't a lot to hit around there. Lots of rain and flooding though, particularly so soon after Isidore.

Go to www.mapquest.com and look up Jennings LA. Back up a little from the default image. There are a lot of small towns through that area, and a lot of people. If they didn't get out this is going to be a disaster. And it's also going to destroy a whole lot of sugarcane, which means jobs. Lili is going to hurt a lot of people no matter where it goes....

[Types_with_Fist]

No argument....it just doesn't jive with his posted story and headline...er, previous headline that is.

[john316]

just looked at the latest visible loop..she's starting to turn nort.

[HAL9000]

Yikes! It's heading to the Tabasco Sauce bottling plant!

[dennis1x]

i would say that if the storm continued on its heading Galveston may experience slightly higher than 40-50mph winds....maybe 60-70mph as it would be about 75 miles from landfall (once again, on its current heading if it missed "the turn).

reasons:

small storm
southwest quad storm weaker

[Types_with_Fist]

My guess is Morgan City...right about where Andrew hit.

[john316]

nort=north

[Diddle E. Squat]

HURRICANE LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LILI HAS DROPPED TO 941 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 131 KT. LILI IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TRACK...WIND RADII...AND WARNINGS ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1800Z 25.3N 89.4W 115 KTS

12HR VT 03/0000Z 26.0N 90.5W 125 KTS<

24HR VT 03/1200Z 28.1N 92.1W 125 KTS

36HR VT 04/0000Z 30.4N 92.5W 85 KTS...INLAND

48HR VT 04/1200Z 33.5N 91.0W 40 KTS...INLAND

72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.5N 82.0W 30 KTS..

[bonfire]

Anyone have a link to a satellite picture?

[Types_with_Fist]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_400x300c/ir/isaGUL.gif

[bonfire]

Wow!!! You are FAST! Thanks!

[Types_with_Fist]

Yeah...that's what my wife tells me too...:-)

[dennis1x]

that 125kt prediction is troubling....still crossing fingers for the October weakening mechanism seen throughout history......125kt just terrible.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

125 knots per hour is 143.84 miles per hour

[Quilla]

A coworker of mine has an aunt and uncle in New Iberia. He spoke with them a little while ago - they have been advised to evacuate. However, they raise limousines and refuse to leave their animals.

[txhurl]

Your temperature map suggests that Lilli will soon enter a cooler zone, thus picking up less energy, then moving again into a warmer zone as she approaches land, where she might pick up more energy and strengthen.

Wonder what this change in water temperature might do to path.