Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[seeker41]

There should be another advisory out in about 14 minutes. I can't believe I'm still up watching this cane, they fascinate me.

[Uncle Sham]

All I know is that the power better stay on long enough for my popcorn to finish.

[newsperson999]

winds down to 120 MPH repeating winds down to 120 mPH....

[Uncle Sham]

BTW, where are you as we chat? You know where I am. :-(

[Uncle Sham]

That's good news! Today is the 38th anniversary of Hurrican Hilda hitting New Iberia. That is still the worst storm I've ever been through. Very slow mover ala Hurricane Georges a few years back and very, very wet. Lots of downed trees and power lines.

[seeker41]

Houston, we get lots of good storms here (like Allison). Most of the problems we have are due to major flooding if somebody spits on the street. I went to Holly Beach once, lots of gators.

[glorygirl]

If this is true, then about four hours till the eye makes landfall, correct? Last I saw it was moving about 17 mph.. maybe even longer.

[Uncle Sham]

Parish chairman announcing on radio that we might have dodged a bullet both from the wind speeds as well as the storm surge! It appears to have lost it's eye somewhat and will be making landfall near Intrcoastal City. Y'all prayers have worked! :-) Time-out, the popcorn is ready. :-)

[seeker41]

Sounds close. The thing that bothers me most is you watch the darn things for a week or two, then it seems to take forever for them to come onshore.

[Uncle Sham]

BTW, it's time for a quickie poll. Should Sham wake his mother-in-law with this good news so she can go home? yes or no? :-)

[seeker41]

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on October 03, 2002


...Lili weaker but still dangerous...expected to make landfall later
this morning...
At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning from Freeport Texas
to High Island Texas is discontinued.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from east of High Island Texas
to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from east of the mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...including New
Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Lili was located near
latitude 28.7 north... longitude 91.7 west or about 95 miles south
of New Iberia Louisiana.
Lili is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph and a turn
toward the north is expected this morning. On this track the center
will reach the central Louisiana coast later this morning.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph...195
km/hr...with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is expected before
landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195
miles. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland up to
150 miles near the track of the center of Lili. Hurricane force
winds...in gusts...have begun spreading onshore over southeast
Louisiana. Southwest Pass...near the mouth of the Mississippi
River...recently reported a wind gust to 81 mph...and Grand Isle
reported a gust to 79 mph.
As Lili moves over land...people in the path of the hurricane are
cautioned not to venture outside during the relative calm of the
eye...because winds will increase suddenly from the opposite
direction.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb...28.26 inches.
A potentially deadly storm surge of 10 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels is likely near and to the east of where the center crosses
the coast. The surge could spread as much as 25 miles inland across
the low-lying portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
track.
Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible near the path
of Lili. These rains could cause dangerous flooding.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi today.
Repeating the 4 am CDT position...28.7 N... 91.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 6 am CDT and 8 am CDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 10 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 03, 2002

aircraft flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that Lili has weakened significantly since reaching its peak intensity yesterday evening. The hurricane hunters reported that the eyewall has collapsed into a few fragments...however WSR-88D from New Orleans and Lake Charles still show about 50 per cent of an eyewall...open to the south. Water vapor imagery suggests some elongation of the cloud pattern toward the north-northeast...indicating some possible shear. Radar images suggest some erosion of the precip pattern over the southwestern part of the circulation...indicating a possible intrusion of dry air. Also...there is a shallower layer of warm water available over the northwest Gulf as compared to farther south and east.

All of the above factors may have contributed to the decline. Despite the weakening...Lili is still a formidable hurricane and...since it is moving at a fairly fast forward speed...it can still spread strong winds as far as 150 mi inland.

The hurricane continues on a north-northwest...about 335 degree...heading. A northward turn is likely very soon but it now appears that the center will pass near the western portion of Vermilion Bay...which could still produce storm surge heights approaching 20 ft in that basin. Since the northward turn has been delayed somewhat...the short-term track forecast has been shifted just slightly westward. The center of the hurricane should make landfall on the Louisiana coast...about in the middle of the Hurricane Warning area...later this mo

[seeker41]

Nahh..let her sleep and as soon as it passes your house ask her to go. BTW-I'm gonna break for awhile...Take care, check back in on you in a bit.

[glorygirl]

still a relief

[Uncle Sham]

Get some rest. Here comes the rain again...

[glorygirl]

Good luck to you, Cajun and all in the area. I'll be signing off now....

[Free Trapper]

You know the old saying.

Let sleeping dogs lie.

[2sheep]

>What was the top speed of Hurricane Andrew?

One source said it hit South Dade at over 214 mph going rapidly up to 350 mph.  It put a 200 foot gaping hole in a 400 foot tall smokestack at Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant.  "When Turkey Point was built in the 1960s, its main structures were designed to withstand 235 mph winds. Hurricane Andrew was clocked at 164 mph at the plant. FPL officials don't know why the smokestack didn't hold up..."  [Miami Herald, Sept. 5, 1992]

The Lili discussion Number 47 posted above and here indicated, "although Lili will start to weaken once it moves inland...the strong winds just a few hundred feet above the surface will not weaken as quickly as the surface winds...which means that high rise structures could experience sustained winds of at least one category higher than what is occurring at the surface."

[Diddle E. Squat]

Salt Dome. Interesting, I had always just assumed that they were an entirely underground thing. So Avery Island is a zit on Mother Earth's face?

[Uncle Sham]

These rain bands are quite intense. Don't know how much longer our power will last.