Posted on 09/26/2002 3:43:08 PM PDT by FoxPro
I havent heard this stated anywhere, but after reading several editorials, and the statement by Condoleezza Rice, something to the effect We dont want to witness a smoking gun where the smoke is a mushroom cloud, it dawned on me what Western powers are really terrified of, losing power.
The Assumptions:
1. Saddam Hussein possesses a few small nuclear devices.
2. He has the ability to secretly transport these devices to the United States.
What he wont do:
He wouldnt actually detonate these devices in a large metropolitan area. This would be suicide on his part. If he did, there would be massive retaliation, and probably the destruction of Iraq and most of its people. This serves no purpose. Its called MAD, mutually assured destruction. It is what has provided relative world peace for the last 50 years.
The Scenario:
Agents of Hussein would take one of these devices and detonate it in some remote location in the US, such as a desert in Nevada or an eastern location in Montana. Theoretically this could be done without killing anyone, with a timing device or some other methodology.
After this, Hussein would appear in the media and credibly claim that he has hidden several of these devices in secret locations in New York, Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles. He would also state that any attack on his country would lead to massive destruction of these cities, immediately.
At this point Hussein has become a major nuclear player, without having the ability to deliver nuclear weapons the more expensive and conventional way.
Then the bargaining and blackmail begins. Hussein has assured his survival, and enhanced his global power, with little expense or effort.
This, I believe, is what the Western powers are really concerned about.
MAD doctrine is demonstrably ineffective against a.) madmen and b.) martyrs.
Thus, the Bush doctrine of preemption...
I think it is fatally flawed in the current situation for two reasons, one practical, one theoretical.
The practical problem: From the moment these devices get near the coast of the country they are subject to capture by the "enemy" (us). There are many points that radiation from such a device could be detected -- everything would have to go just right and no accidental discovery could occur throughout the complex process of importing and placing these devices. This is one of many reasons why no one risks their nuclear weapons in this manner -- the worst possible outcome is to have your ultimate weapon captured 10,000 miles from territory you control.
The theoretical: Even if an enemy nuclear device were exploded in such a manner as no one was killed by the blast, there would be significant environmental damage -- and merely the gaul of setting off such a device on our territory would be enough to result in a massive nuclear strike against Iraq. There is no way to do this in which there would not be an overwhelming response. Hell, we'd probably nuke Iraq if they even thought about such a thing.
Not that I know of. Heard nothing about it offloading cargo, nor of it going to the two destinations it actually had: Norfolk and Savannah. And someone sent me an url belonging to the shipowners which was supposed to be giving current info on the ship's whereabouts - the day after the "tile" statement, it didn't work anymore.
Scary, huh?
Talk about emptying those cities out... You haven't seen an exodus like you would at that point.
I think if anyone did, it would be curtains for this planet. I also think if we strike first, he knows it is over and will take millions of Americans with him.
I think his weapons are in position - not nuclear bombs but weaponized anthrax. On command, an Iraqi janitor in every major city could take a couple pounds of the stuff in a soap container to the roof of a skyscraper and fling it over the side, killing 100,000 or more people. I think that was the point of last year's post 9/11 attacks - a warning that there was more to come.
I forget... is that orange tin foil or yellow tin foil?
More recently, UN inspectors have learned that Iraq's first bomb design, which weighed a ton and was a full meter in diameter, was replaced by a smaller, more efficient model. From discussions with the Iraqis, the inspectors have deduced that the new design weighs only about 600 kilograms and measures only 600 to 650 millimeters in diameter. That makes it small enough to fit on Iraq's Scud-type missiles, some of which are still unaccounted for. Iraq has mastered the key technique of creating an implosive shock wave, which squeezes a bomb's nuclear material enough to trigger a chain reaction. The new Iraqi design also uses a "flying tamper," a refinement that "hammers" the nuclear material to squeeze it even harder, so that bombs can be made smaller without diminishing their explosive force. The inspectors have determined that Iraq now has a successful bomb design and lacks only the material to fuel it.
From iraqwatch.org
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