Ya'll are missing the truely cunning approach. Which is, assuming he has more than 1 working nuke, he:
- Gets it smuggled into the US.
- Calls up the White house and has a quiet discussion with the appropriate person, tells them where it is.
- HEAT goes and finds it.
- Yep, its a live nuke. Confiscate it.
- Saddam calls back, asks - You find it yet?
- Yes, he is told, found it.
- Saddam says - more where that came from. They are dispersed. You invade, kill me, they get smuggled in and detonated. Now you know I have them. Leave me alone.
Bush team backs off, says lets go with weapons inspections. Because, by that strategy, Saddam shows that:
(a) He is sane enough not to preemptively strike when he has the chance.
(b) He deters any attack on him.
(c) By handling it real quiet he gives Bush a way to quietly back down.
(d) This plan would mean we don't get nuked
unless we attack him first. So he uses MAD against us!
Scary, huh?
Now there you go, we have a pitch for a movie script here. I like your deduction.
If you had the Algore team in the White House, I'd believe that. I think that the Bush team is a bit closer to my way of thinking, which is that Baghdad would be the second target after Mecca.