Posted on 09/24/2002 11:51:53 AM PDT by Protagoras
Don’t Start the Second Gulf War
The case against war with Iraq.
By Doug Bandow
August 12, 2002, 9:00 a.m.
President George W. Bush says that he hasn't made up his mind about "any of our policies in regard to Iraq," but he obviously has. To not attack after spending months talking about the need for regime change is inconceivable. Unfortunately, war is not likely to be the simple and certain procedure that he and many others seem to think.
Lots of arguments have been offered on behalf of striking Baghdad that are not reasons at all. For instance, that Saddam Hussein is an evil man who has brutalized his own people.
Certainly true. But the world is full of brutal regimes that have murdered their own people. Indeed, Washington ally Turkey's treatment of its Kurds is scarcely more gentle than Iraq's Kurdish policies.
Moreover, the U.S. warmly supports the royal kleptocracy next door in Saudi Arabia, fully as totalitarian, if not quite as violent, as Saddam's government. Any non-Muslim and most women would probably prefer living in Iraq.
Also cited is Baghdad's conquest of Kuwait a dozen years ago. It is a bit late to drag that out as a justification for invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam. He is far weaker today and has remained firmly contained.
Richard Butler, former head of the U.N. Commission on Iraq, complained to the Senate Foreign Relations that Iraq had violated international law by tossing out arms inspectors. In fact, there are often as many reasons to flout as to obey U.N. rules. Washington shouldn't go to war in some abstract pursuit of "international law."
Slightly more plausible, at least, is the argument that creating a democratic system in Iraq would provide a useful model for the rest of the Mideast. But that presupposes democracy can be easily planted, and that it can survive once the U.S. departs.
Iraq suffers from significant internal stresses. Convenient professions of unity in pursuit of democracy from an opposition once dismissed by Mideast special envoy and retired Gen. Anthony Zinni as "silk-suited, Rolex-wearing guys in London" offer little comfort and are likely to last no longer than have similar promises in Afghanistan.
Also problematic are Kurdish demands for autonomy and Shiite Muslim resistance to the central government. One defense official told the Washington Post: "I think it is almost a certainty that we'd wind up doing a campaign against the Kurds and Shiites." Wouldn't that be pretty? <
There are external threats as well. Particularly worrisome would be covert and possibly overt action by Iran, with which Baghdad fought a decade-long war and which might see intervention against a weakened Iraq as an antidote to serious political unrest at home.
Indeed, the U.S. backed Baghdad in its conflict with Iran and decided not to depose Saddam in 1991, in part out of fear of Iranian aggression throughout the Gulf should Iraq no longer provide a blocking role. Keeping the Iraqi Humpty Dumpty together after a war might not be easy.
Moreover, while Americans might see America's war on Iraq as a war for democracy, most Arabs would likely see it as a war for Washington. If the U.S. deposes Saddam, but leaves in place friendly but despotic regimes elsewhere — such as Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia — few Arabs would take America's democracy rhetoric seriously. Nor should they. Yet to go to war against everyone, including presumably Iran, Syria, and maybe others, would have incalculable consequences.
Saddam's complicity in September 11 would present a good argument for devastating retaliation for an act of war, but there's no evidence that he was involved. All that exists is a disputed meeting, which might not have occurred, in the Czech Republic between hijacker Mohammed Atta and an Iraqi official.
Certainly Saddam shed no tears over the thousands who died on that tragic day, but he has never been known to promote groups which he does not control. In contrast to Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein is no Muslim fanatic looking forward to his heavenly rewards; moreover, he heads a government and nation against which retaliation is simple.
Probably the best, at least the most fearsome, argument for overthrowing Saddam is the prospect of Baghdad developing weapons of mass destruction. Yet if nonproliferation should be enforced by war, Washington will be very busy in the coming years.
The problem is not just countries like Iran and North Korea, which seem to have or have had serious interest in developing atomic weapons. It is China, which could use them in any conflict with the U.S. over, say, Taiwan. And India, Pakistan, and Russia, which face unpredictable nationalist and theological currents, enjoy governments of varying instability, and offer uncertain security over technical know-how as well as weapons.
Potentially most dangerous is Pakistan's arsenal. The government of Pervez Musharraf is none too steady; Islamabad long supported the Taliban and its military and intelligence forces almost certainly contain al Qaeda sympathizers. It is easy to imagine nuclear technology falling into terrorist hands.
An Iraqi nuclear capability seems less frightening in comparison. Saddam would not use them against America, since to do so would guarantee his incineration. Israel possesses a similarly overbearing deterrent.
Would Baghdad turn atomic weapons over to al Qaeda or similarly motivated terrorists? Not likely.
First, it would be extraordinary for Saddam to give up a technology purchased at such a high price. Second, Baghdad would be the immediate suspect and likely target of retaliation should any terrorist deploy nuclear weapons, and Saddam knows this.
Third, Saddam would be risking his own life. Al Qaeda holds secular Arab dictators in contempt and would not be above attempting to destroy them as well as America.
Of course, the world would be a better place without Saddam's dictatorship. But there are a lot of regimes that should, and eventually will, end up in history's dustbin. That's not a good reason to initiate war against a state which poses no direct, ongoing threat.
Especially since war often creates unpredictable consequences. Without domestic opposition military forces to do America's dirty work, Washington will have to bear most of the burden. The task will be more difficult and expensive without European support and Saudi staging grounds.
If Iraq's forces don't quickly crumble, the U.S. might find itself involved in urban conflict that will be costly in human and political terms. If Baghdad possesses any weapons of mass destruction, Saddam will have an incentive to use them — against America, Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia — since Washington would be dedicated to his overthrow.
Further, the U.S. would be sloshing gasoline over a combustible political situation in friendly but undemocratic Arab regimes stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia. Israelis and Palestinians are at war, America continues to fight Taliban and al Qaeda forces in Afghanistan as the pro-western government teeters on chaos, fundamentalist Muslims rule western Pakistan, and Muslim extremists are active a dozen other countries. Yet the administration wants to invade Iraq. Riots in Egypt, a fundamentalist rising in Pakistan, a spurt of sectarian violence in Indonesia, and who knows what else could pose a high price for any success in Iraq.
War is a serious business. Making war on a country which does not threaten the U.S. is particularly serious. Even if the optimists who think a campaign against Iraq would be easy are right, and we can only hope they are, war should be a last resort. As House Majority Leader Richard Armey warned, an unprovoked attack "would not be consistent with what we have been as a nation or what we should be as a nation."
There's certainly no hurry to go to war. Nothing is different today from September 10, 2001, or any time since Iraq was ousted from Kuwait. Observes Jim Cornette, formerly an expert in biological warfare with the Air Force: "We've bottled [Saddam] up for 11 years, so we're doing okay."
There are times when Washington has no choice but to fight. Iraq is not such a place and now is not such a time.
— Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan.
That's what they say publically. I'd bet a ton that behind the scenes it's a different story. There is a lot more going on in the planning / strategy area of the Bush admin than we'll ever know. The Bush admin has some of the best military minds ever assembled- and they are always thinking 3 steps ahead.
We? As in you and your buddy? You are free to do your own thing.
The rest of us will continue to debate this important decision until we make up our minds on whether we support this particular course of action or not.
For what it's worth, I held the article in higher regard than you, but then, my mind isn't already made up. He makes his points, you make yours. I am unconvinced by the arguments you use to support your position thus far.
And yet, you can't ask the 3025 who died on 9-11 because they didn't HAVE A CHOICE.
Huck is right... the author seems to wallowing in moral hyperbole... because this has happened in the past, the US can't or shouldn't do this. Or because in the past the US did this and that, the US should refrain from this and that.
Foreign policy isn't about morality. Ask Jimmy Carter how that worked out for him. It is about strategic interest. 9/11 changed everything. We got a crash course on the perils of not doing anything (Ask the Clinton Administration how that worked out) and loosing everything.
When an author spells out reasoning based on the psychology of a madman... I have trouble believing anything he writes next. He says that we don't need to do anything because Saddam won't do 1) turn over atomic weapons to a terrorist group. 2) Won't do it because everybody suspects them. (He has the number one suspect in international terror for the past 11 years.. that hasn't stopped him) 3) He wouldn't risk his own life. (which proves this author has no understanding of him at all)
Then we are back in the Vietnam prism. Bad war that... but, all wars are not Vietnam. All decades aren't the 1960's. And all leaders aren't LBJ. So, it's over. Let's move on before we find ourselves weeping on the Oprah show.
The author has very little understanding about the structure of international terrorism. To write that Iraq is not a threat to us wipes over the last 11 years. Iraq has their dirty paws all over Al-Qaeda and the PA. It is folly to think they don't.
Lastly, I am so tired of people saying that we can't defend ourselves because we have allies in Egypt, Pakistan, etc. That sounds good on paper, but isn't the real world.
Which sums up my major problem with this article. This author doesn't live in the real world.
What this country needs to ask itself is: Do we want 9/11 to become our way of life. Or, do we summon the courage and fight. Fight until the battle is over. Fight until the enemy is vanquished. And the enemy is militant Islam terror and those states that sponsor it.
The author then says this: War is serious. Do you think, Captain Obvious. Yes it is serious. Sometimes it is needful. And sometimes it comes to you from a clear blue sky on a Tuesday in September.
This guy doesn't know the enemy. What motivates them and what their ultimate goal is. I do... let's roll! (a little hyperbole of my own)
This is a straw man argument. It is not why we're going to war. The reason the author brings it up is because it is so easy to knock down.
There are external threats as well. Particularly worrisome would be covert and possibly overt action by Iran, with which Baghdad fought a decade-long war and which might see intervention against a weakened Iraq as an antidote to serious political unrest at home.
Part of what Bush is trying to accomplish is to tell nations like Iran, "Try something and we will stop you. You're on the list. Behave and improve or face our wrath." Iran won't try anything.
Saddam's complicity in September 11 would present a good argument for devastating retaliation for an act of war, but there's no evidence that he was involved. All that exists is a disputed meeting, which might not have occurred, in the Czech Republic between hijacker Mohammed Atta and an Iraqi official.
That's not no evidence. Many people think it is significant.
Probably the best, at least the most fearsome, argument for overthrowing Saddam is the prospect of Baghdad developing weapons of mass destruction. Yet if nonproliferation should be enforced by war, Washington will be very busy in the coming years.
So, we should do nothing, because otherwise we must do too much? Childish. Better to light a candle than curse the darkness. Better to deal with one major threat than to do nothing.
An Iraqi nuclear capability seems less frightening in comparison. Saddam would not use them against America, since to do so would guarantee his incineration. Israel possesses a similarly overbearing deterrent.
Terrorists have been pecking at us for years because they think we won't respond. It makes a poor argument to say that Hussein won't do anything because he wouldn't dare to face the consequences. This is a region plagued by Suicide Bombers.
If Baghdad possesses any weapons of mass destruction, Saddam will have an incentive to use them - against America, Israel, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia - since Washington would be dedicated to his overthrow.
So, we should allow him to accumulate such weapons, in hopes that he won't use them. Because if we try to stop him, he might use them. I find this singularly unconvincing.
Further, the U.S. would be sloshing gasoline over a combustible political situation in friendly but undemocratic Arab regimes stretching from North Africa to Southeast Asia.
Such a tired line. Don't do anything to upset the Arab Street. Get over it!
Even if the optimists who think a campaign against Iraq would be easy are right, and we can only hope they are, war should be a last resort.
He's been violating International Law for 10 years. War is exactly the last resort.
There's certainly no hurry to go to war.
Recent reports indicate Hussein is close to getting nuclear capability. There is a definite need for fast action.
I would suggest that you ask those living under the Taliban if they would rather be dead.
And yet, you can't ask the 3025 who died on 9-11 because they didn't HAVE A CHOICE.
Better?
So we can't believe what they say publicly? Hmmm, not too conforting from my viewpoint. I'm supposed to trust people I can't rely on to tell me the story?
Please make the case, that even though they themselves don't say they are in possession of additional information, we can't be trusted with information which would convince us that Iraq presents a clear and present danger to our country.
I'll leave the speculation to you, before I am on board, I would like more info. I remain undecided based on facts, not speculation about postitions not held by our leaders.
I used to to attend tough love meetings. Parents who attended would rationalize just like this while their children gave them all the signals they needed to determine they were into self destructive behaviors.
The author is in deep denial that Saddam not only wants him dead, he has tried before and he will try again.
Thanks for proving my point. Please continue to avoid the argument, I so enjoy your pretty graphics.
Oh, and that way, they get to live out their juvenile fantasies of living as survivalists in a "Postman" world.
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