Posted on 09/15/2002 12:14:04 PM PDT by Theodore R.
Perry is going to destroy Sanchez, and he'll have sufficient coattails to carry Cornyn into office.
BTW, I notice you scarf up every obscure source that predicts gloom-and-doom for Republicans. Jack Anderson hasn't been a serious political commentator since he thought somebody was trying to assassinate him.
Another example of staying past one's shelf life?????
I am assuming, with good cause, that Drudge or someone else on the Internet will break the embargo on the results of the exit polls that are conducted once in the morning and again in the afternoon at key precincts in key races across the country. If so, word will get out between 3 and 3:30 that Forrester has defeated Torricelli in New Jersey.
The Torch is, of course, campaigning on the idea that no matter how bad he is, the people of New Jersey should reelect him to prevent the (nasty) Republicans from retaking the Senate. The same argument is being made by other Democrat candidates for Senate, across the country.
Once Torricelli goes down in flames, the Senate is back in Republican hands UNLESS the Democrats take more seats from the Republicans than the Republicans take from the Democrats. The Republicans have, arguably, three seats at risk -- Arkansas, Colorado, and Texas. The Democrats also have three seats at risk (other than New Jersey) -- Minnesota, Missouri, and South Dakota.
The Republicans are all in a statistical tie in their "at risk" seats. The Democrats are all down in the polls in their "at risk" seats (unless Johnson is now statistically tied with Thune in South Dakota). If Torricelli goes down, early, the "Save us from a Republican Senate" argument goes down with him.
The Senate slap-down of Texas Supreme Court Judge Priscila Owen by the Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee will savage the Democrat in Texas. She is very popular in Texas; remember that state has elections for its judges. And it will also hurt the Democrat in Missouri; the only thing keeping the Widow Carnahan in the race there is the gender gap of women preferring her over Talent. He will hang the defeat of Judge Owen around her neck like a long-dead albatross (insert Monty Phython riff, here).
When Torricelli goes down, Daschle goes down with him. And the momentum from the Torricelli loss -- spread by the Internet and talk radio -- will bring down other Democrat candidates with them.
I stand by my prediction, made in writing here last November, that the Republicans "will gain 1-3 seats in the Senate" and will take control.
I hope the political assassination of Judge Owen does sink Jean Carhahan in Missouri. As mentioned on other threads, that is a "special election" and Talent would be seated immediately rather than waiting until January, so the Republicans can reorganize the Senate BEFORE the lame duck session which will take place in November.
Congressman Billybob
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I think the polls show that Republican seats in Oregon and New Hampshire are more at risk then our seat in Colorado. Aslo the Texas polls still show a high number of undecided votors. With Kirk trying to racially politicize the war with Iraq I think you will see his numbers sink as we get closer to election day.
Yep. More than a coinky dink I think...
And of course Johnson in SD like you said.
When is Daschle up for re-election. I truly believe he is finished. He has been too much of an obstructionists for the South Dakotans to handle. But, of course, he does bring home the pork--even for the loggers.
I didn't forecast anything in 1998, and the folks I picked in 2000, won.
Rick Perry is GOING to be re-elected governor of Texas, and Ron Kirk is beginning to self-destruct by playing the race card because he can't get traction any other way.
I can't speak to the reliability of your memory.
- Gin
What about GA and the chances for Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland? Anyone have any data on that?
Despite GOP hopes, Cleland will win comfortably. Agree on 3 GOP pickups above (Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey), plus Thune will win in South Dakota. Senate: R-53; D-46, I-1
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