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Senate Still Too Close to Call; Dems Need Minor Miracle in the House! (My title)
Center for Politics ^
| 9/13/2002
| Larry Sabato
Posted on 09/13/2002 7:13:40 PM PDT by LS
Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Political Scientists with a pretty good track record, has the following (the briefest summary: please go to his site, as he has EVERY race analyzed!)
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ (Maybe someone can actually post the link?)
Senate is too close to call. The Dems could have a net gain of 2, the GOP could have a net gain of 2. He has moved the Torch into the endangered category; has Talent leading; but has Thune and Hutchinson trailing. Cleland could be vulnerable, but not likely. He moved NH back more toward the GOP. Wellstone in trouble, Dole considered safe, and NH now considered safer for GOP.
He now has the edge going to the GOP in TEXAS, so the key races will be SD and ARK. If Hutch holds, and Thune wins, the GOP could be up by more than 2 seats---and I have said for months they need three to keep Chaffee from bolting.
In the House, he has the GOP ahead with 216 safe or leaning seats. Get this: 15 are "up for grabs." That means that the Dems must take 9/15 to take back the House. On the other hand, if the GOP just wins about half, it INCREASES its majority.
Best news of all? All this analysis was done prior to the events this week. No Iraq, no UN speech. Sabato based this on the infamous "kitchen table" issues that are about to go out the window!
I will repeat MY earlier prediction that, with just a few races breaking the right way, we could have a 4-5 vote lead in the Senate and 10-15 margin in the House!
TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; house; senate
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To: Torie
To: Arkinsaw
I dunno. Maybe I'm the only one, but right now I don't see the war making that big a difference come Nov. 5th. The Democrats are not being perceived as openly opposed to it, but rather are getting away with their usual mushy/muddy/imply tactics. And I would be shocked if Daschle delayed a war resolution until after the election. He's not that stupid, and so the war won't be a major issue for the election. What has the GOP done to get the message COMMUNICATED to the average voter that the Dems have weakened our military and obstructed our efforts? Perception matters.
No, my guess is that at some point they'll overwhelmingly pass it, and the Dems will be able to claim they are on board. Of greater fear is that this takes place sometime in October, while the UN/diplomatic side drags its feet until Nov. Then the media shifts to all the DNC spun "local" issues and their fresh pack of lies and accusations, with not enough time left for the GOP to refute and have that refutation filter down to the average voter. Even if the UN moves fast and the war does start, this may be the political danger. And there's no guarantee that some Pandora's negative won't emerge from the start of the war.
Rather than the war, perhaps the single greatest influence that would swing votes would be for Bush to campaign hard. Not just the standard fundraising visits, but personal appeals directly to the voters. Explain how and why he NEEDS them to vote GOP, not just the usual 'vote for them because its my party.' Why it matters on the national level in a way that benefits them, why such overrides more of the same and local issues. The default mode is standing pat to slightly Dem, and it appears only Bush can give them a reason to break that pattern. But he has to communicate it, and actually campaign. He's built up a trust with Americans, and I'm amazed at how many of my liberal friends I've seen come to his defense regarding war, though they usually have the caveat that "While I disagree with him on many issues..." But with that trust for some has come a new assessment and willingness to listen. By an earnest and well reasoned appeal, Bush can use that trust to persuade some to swing on other issues. He did it before with Soc. Security privatization, and that was before the war trust. And remember, he doesn't have to persuade alot of the moderates and libs, but rather a few percent.
How bad does he want the Senate? He's been saving political capital, he's a patient man, but without the Senate he will be unable to achieve anything approaching the bold reforms needed to redefine the GOP. That's why we are painfully inching along now, the GOP does not seem to be able to communicate a message with widespread appeal that differentiates itself from the past. So we just float slowly down the same currents. While I've seen no evidence that this will take place, my gut feeling is that Bush is trying to wrap up war preparation this month, and that he will actively campaign for the GOP across the country in Oct. Which is another reason I suspect Daschle is trying to drag out the war debate as long as possible.
We'll see.
To: Salvation
I pray you are right. I know you are right--I mean I pray you are correct.
43
posted on
09/13/2002 9:12:31 PM PDT
by
Pushi
To: Dog Gone
It can with Saddam being overthrown on September 28.
44
posted on
09/13/2002 9:13:19 PM PDT
by
Pushi
To: Diddle E. Squat
The war will have been over for weeks before November 5.
45
posted on
09/13/2002 9:18:49 PM PDT
by
Pushi
To: Mudboy Slim
Check out your boy Sabato's analysis.
46
posted on
09/13/2002 9:23:33 PM PDT
by
sultan88
To: Torie
I think The Torch had an edge in both debates (well in the second one I just listened to the tail end just now on the CSPAN site Torie, I saw most of the 2nd debate and IMO Forrester beat The Torch soundly. The Torch came off as desperate and off balanced most of the time. He constantly brought up his pro-choice positions and other liberal baggage like the environment. This is a rather telling sign that the Torch is still worried about his democratic base. Forrester by contrast seemed more confident and on message.
47
posted on
09/13/2002 9:25:06 PM PDT
by
WRhine
To: Pushi
"The war will have been over for weeks before November 5." Yep...this ain't gonna be no Somalia!! We're goin' in like we mean business and a large share of the Iraqis will welcome us as Liberators from an Ogre!!
FReegards...MUD
To: WRhine
"The Torch came off as desperate and off balanced most of the time." If I knew I'd been publicly-exposed as a MafiaWhore, I reckon I'd be a bit off-balance myself...the most telling Indictment is that the Senate hasn't ordered Torricelli's Resignation already!! Does NooJoisey feel no shame?!!
FReegards...MUD
To: sultan88
Sabato, whatta TWIT!! I used to think that dude had some poltical wisdom; however, increasingly I 've seen him as a man with an Agenda towards an ever-expanding Federal Leviathan!! His views are not to be trusted.
FReegards...MUD
To: LS
"Senate is too close to call." Too close to call, my arse!! GOP's gonna pick up 3-5 seats in the Senate and 20-30 in the House...it's '94 all over again, bay-BEEEE!!!
FReegards...MUD
To: Mudboy Slim
If I knew I'd been publicly-exposed as a MafiaWhore, I reckon I'd be a bit off-balance myself...the most telling Indictment is that the Senate hasn't ordered Torricelli's Resignation already!! Does NooJoisey feel no shame?!! LOL. I guess NOT! Nor does the Senate.
52
posted on
09/13/2002 10:21:03 PM PDT
by
WRhine
To: WRhine; Landru; sultan88
"Nor does the Senate." With a DemonRAT Guv'nuh in NJ, the Senate RATS just wanna git the Torch elected so they can oust him in March, then name his RAT replacement...I think the good folks of New Jersey deserve better!~!
FReegards...MUD
To: LS
"I have said for months they need three to keep Chaffee from bolting." How STOOOOPID do you reckon Chaffee is to abandon the burgeoning GOP to climb aboard the obsolete USS DemonRAT?!! After November 5, both Zell Miller and Don Breaux will have an excellent justification/opportunity to switch to Independent and Caucus with the GOP...just you watch, young man!!
LOL and FReegards...MUD
To: PhiKapMom
Very interesting analysis by Sabato. As I read him, if everything falls as he predicts and Repubs get 1 of the 2 tossup states, Republicans regain control of the Senate.
To: Mudboy Slim
With a DemonRAT Guv'nuh in NJ, the Senate RATS just wanna git the Torch elected so they can oust him in March, then name his RAT replacement...I think the good folks of New Jersey deserve better!~! I think you got the inside track here. It makes a lot of sense.
56
posted on
09/13/2002 10:54:40 PM PDT
by
WRhine
To: fooman
You'll be interested in iowa electronic market. Breaking our way
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/Cong02.gif
Actually, it provides strong support for holding the House, but only a 25% chance of taking the Senate.
(Example: RH-NS means Rep House, Non-REp Senate)
To: marajade
I don't think we need to worry about Chaffee anymore... It seems Chaffee is upset about the judiciary committee not allowing nominations to the full senate floor... If the Republicans gain two seats Chaffee will stay. No Senator is crazy enough to give up Majority committee positions for the Minority seats. In Washington power often comes before principle ...
58
posted on
09/13/2002 11:02:12 PM PDT
by
StevieB
To: WRhine; Cincinatus' Wife; mommadooo3
"...the inside track..." Yeah...Limbaugh's been spreadin' that scuttlebutt...Forrester needs to ask who McGreevey's gonna pick as the Torch's replacement!!
I say he oughtta name Steve Forbes....LOL!!
FReegards...MUD
To: The Person
I know the level is still lower than sen dem, house rep, but the change is dramatically in our favor
60
posted on
09/13/2002 11:14:30 PM PDT
by
fooman
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