Senate Still Too Close to Call; Dems Need Minor Miracle in the House! (My title)

Center for Politics ^ | 9/13/2002 | Larry Sabato

[LS]

Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Political Scientists with a pretty good track record, has the following (the briefest summary: please go to his site, as he has EVERY race analyzed!)

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ (Maybe someone can actually post the link?)

Senate is too close to call. The Dems could have a net gain of 2, the GOP could have a net gain of 2. He has moved the Torch into the endangered category; has Talent leading; but has Thune and Hutchinson trailing. Cleland could be vulnerable, but not likely. He moved NH back more toward the GOP. Wellstone in trouble, Dole considered safe, and NH now considered safer for GOP.

He now has the edge going to the GOP in TEXAS, so the key races will be SD and ARK. If Hutch holds, and Thune wins, the GOP could be up by more than 2 seats---and I have said for months they need three to keep Chaffee from bolting.

In the House, he has the GOP ahead with 216 safe or leaning seats. Get this: 15 are "up for grabs." That means that the Dems must take 9/15 to take back the House. On the other hand, if the GOP just wins about half, it INCREASES its majority.

Best news of all? All this analysis was done prior to the events this week. No Iraq, no UN speech. Sabato based this on the infamous "kitchen table" issues that are about to go out the window!

I will repeat MY earlier prediction that, with just a few races breaking the right way, we could have a 4-5 vote lead in the Senate and 10-15 margin in the House!

[Lady In Blue]

Thanks,LS for this thread.BTW,has anybody seen or heard of any polls taken after the Presiden't UN speech? I wonder how the average American saw it. Thanks.

[Torie]

That is a very diplomatic statement. It must be all that training on that other forum. :)

[fooman]

You'll be interested in iowa electronic market.

Breaking our way


http://128.255.244.60/graphs/Cong02.gif

[GraniteStateConservative]

Next up is making sure Jeb wins in November

Which won't be as easy as summer thinks it will be.

[Dog Gone]

I wonder how the average American saw it. Thanks.

It had to have helped, but I'm quite sure the average American didn't see it.

The average American probably couldn't name the current Vice-President unless they can remember a Saturday Night Live sketch.

[fooman]

WE want rh_rs . Its spiking up!

[Dog Gone]

I disagree. Jeb is going to easily win, and summer will be ecstatic.

[Torie]

The chart is driven by the Senate races mostly. Their was a slight bump after the Talent Carnahan polls came out, and a bigger won after the big Sununu win, as well as the right GOP candidates winning for governor and in the NH1 in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is carrying a bit load on this one. The AZ1 and NC8 primary outcomes also helped a bit on the House side along with NH1.

[GraniteStateConservative]

I'm always a nice guy. Dealing with Steve Remming, JBBryan, RogueDem, and Strategem hasn't changed me. I've learned to ignore posts more than I used to, though. I am mad they invited all the liberal Political Wire weirdos over there.

I wish they'd delete the 9/11 national commission letter thread, don't you?

[GraniteStateConservative]

We'll see, I guess. Florida isn't a very GOP-friendly state.

[Torie]

I haven't read that thread much. I think New Party stepped in didn't he? I will leave that trash pickup to him.

[Salvation]

Freep this poll (I think the DU has invaded it.)

[Torie]

won = one. I sure wish there was an editing feature here. :)

[Cicero]

I agree with you. I don't know Chaffee that well, but he'd have to be abysmally stupid to bolt the party after seeing what has happened to Jim Jeffords.

Nobody loves a traitor. After the Dems have used Jeffords up, they will throw him away. They would do the same with Chaffee.

So, if Chaffee knows what side his bread is buttered on, he will remain a RINO.

[cinFLA]

We'll see, I guess. Florida isn't a very GOP-friendly state.

Republican Governor, Major majority in Senate, Major majority in House! Voted Republican in 2002!

[marajade]

McCain has a new book coming out and its rumored he talks about retiring in 2004... I sure hope so...

[Torie]

Are you familiar with the concept of gerrymandering? Florida is an art form.

[Congressman Billybob]

You're being over optimistic in your predictions. Senate = 1 to 3 gain for the GOP. House = 5 to 7 gain for the GOP. Larry Sabato is known as the "mouth of the South" as getting himself quoted as an expert in more papers than any other non-elected human. His predictions are only average.

For a more detailed analysis than good ol' Larry has ever done in his life and all his books, of the House elections, click the first link below.

Congressman Billybob

Click for major article on turnover in the House of Representatives: "Til Death Do Us Part."

Click for latest column: "The Star-Spangled Banner, Part II, & More Lies from the Media"

[Torie]

I thought Robert Byrd was the mouth of the South.

[Torie]

Where exactly is the link to your detailed analysis?