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Maryland Poll: Tight For Governor (Ehrlich vs Townsend)
WBAL Radio Website ^ | August 6, 2002 | WBAL.com

Posted on 08/06/2002 7:25:12 AM PDT by caa26

A newly-released statewide poll shows the race for Governor of Maryland as a dead heat.

Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is shown with support from 48 percent of the Marylanders surveyed by telephone on Saturday, August 3, while Republican Robert Ehrlich is supported by 47 percent. Five percent of those surveyed are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points using the overall sample.

The poll, conducted for WJLA(TV) in Washington, also known as 'ABC-7', shows that Townsend's support overall has fallen 11 points since a similar ABC-7 survey released about a month ago.

The new results say that 26 percent of the self-identified Democrats in the poll say they would cross party lines to vote for Ehrlich, with 17 percent of the Republicans saying the would cross over to Townsend. Independents are breaking five to three for Ehrlich, with self-identified conservatives going two to one for the Republican, and those saying they are liberals going three to one for Townsend. Participants calling themselves moderates are evenly split between the two candidates.

In the Baltimore area, Ehrlich is shown with a 53 to 43 lead over Townsend with four percent undecided. In the remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties, Townsend leads 58 to 36 over Ehrlich, with six percent undecided.

The poll shows Ehrlich leading among men 52 percent to Townsend's 42 percent with six percent undecided. Among women, Townsend leads Ehrlich 53 to 42 with five percent undecided. In ABC-7's poll last month, Townsend had a 30 point lead among women compared with today's 11 percent margin.

The new survey also says that Ehrlich has 58 percent support statewide among participants identifying themselves as white, compared with 38 percent for Townsend and four percent undecided. Among blacks, Townsend has 70 percent support, Ehrlich 23 percent and seven percent undecided. Hispanic voters surveyed go 61 percent for Townsend, 35 percent for Ehrlich and four percent undecided. Townsend also gets 60 percent support among persons identifying themselves as 'other', with 32 percent of this group going for Ehrlich and eight percent undecided. Hispanic is defined as an ethnicity, not a race, hence members of the group may be of any race.

The poll was conducted Saturday, August 3 from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. by telephone with a sample of 669 participants


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Maryland
KEYWORDS: ehrlich; kennedytownsend; kkt; townsend
This poll is showing Ehrlich is only trailing by one point. Its a dead heat now! Hopefully Ehrlich will keep up the momentum.
1 posted on 08/06/2002 7:25:13 AM PDT by caa26
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To: caa26
Good news, thanks. Consistent with several other polls. And now, to counteract the inevitable handwring and naysaying, I'll say:

This is awesome! Ehrlich can't lose!!

He's a cinch in this Republican stronghold!!!

A Kennedy can't possibly overcome all of Ehrlich's advantages!!

Whew! I'm tired.

2 posted on 08/06/2002 7:32:25 AM PDT by Coop
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To: caa26
Only 5% undecided in early August? I wouldn't put too much stock in this poll, but it is encouraging that Ehrlich is even on the radar screen.

But if the race is this tight on election eve, it doesn't bode well. Ask Ellen Sauerbrey what happens to Republicans on election night in the People's Communist Republic of Maryland. Answer: the Rats simply fraud up a few thousand votes (or whatever they need) in the massive Baltimore ghetto and open those boxes just before midnight. KKKT wins by a nose!

DWG

3 posted on 08/06/2002 7:37:55 AM PDT by DownWithGreenspan
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To: Coop
I'm just hoping the GOP won't kive up to its nickname as the "stupid party" before November. Also Ehrlich is going to have to tough out the hit jobs that The Baltimore Sun, Wash Post, and other local media outlets will do on him.
4 posted on 08/06/2002 7:39:25 AM PDT by caa26
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To: caa26
Don't look now but there's a Libertarian on the ballot!

The only real effect is that each vote he takes from Ehrlich is one less graveyard vote the Rats have to conjure.

5 posted on 08/06/2002 7:45:23 AM PDT by StockAyatollah
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To: Coop
If only it would hold true. Knowing MD. for what it is,
I won't hold my breath.

Hope and prayer for my neighbors in Md.
6 posted on 08/06/2002 7:47:09 AM PDT by vin-one
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To: caa26
What is really surprising is that Ehrlich has a very fine lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 82 as a Congressman. Only Roscoe Bartlett has better at 98.

What an outstanding chance for Maryland to start toward removing that "People's Republic" from its name. Good luck.

7 posted on 08/06/2002 8:05:40 AM PDT by Commiewatcher
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To: vin-one
Md has the wimpiest state motto. "Womanly words. Manly deeds." Ha. In this case let's hope the woman talks and the man wins!
8 posted on 08/06/2002 8:09:37 AM PDT by far sider
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To: Coop
Baltimore voting is crooked...Erlich can definitely lose.
9 posted on 08/06/2002 8:10:55 AM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: caa26
If Townsend wins, it's because she took lessons from the Grand Master of Votescam, Parris Glendenning. Watch out for her League of Women Voters support--the Democratic Party machine gets this bunch of old ladies to help them to cheat.

Prayers for Rep. Ehrlich--he is definitely one of the good guys.

10 posted on 08/06/2002 8:13:33 AM PDT by pray4liberty
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To: Mamzelle
Baltimore voting is crooked...Erlich can definitely lose.

No way!! It's not possible!!! Maryland is a Republican stronghold! He's a guaranteed victor!!!!

11 posted on 08/06/2002 8:22:48 AM PDT by Coop
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To: DownWithGreenspan
As you describe Maryland, apparently Floridians are copy cat when it came to Presidential election improprieties.
12 posted on 08/06/2002 9:39:06 AM PDT by Zubercyber
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To: pray4liberty
If Townsend wins, it's because she took lessons from the Grand Master of Votescam, Parris Glendenning.

It was in her blood before Spendenning came along...

13 posted on 08/06/2002 9:41:30 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands
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To: Mamzelle
Baltimore voting is crooked...Erlich can definitely lose.

That's how KKT became Lieutenant Gov. in the first place, isn't it? Wasn't there a bunch of suspiciously late votes that came in from Baltimore that just put Glendenning over the top? Let's pray God won't allow them to get away with this crime.

14 posted on 08/06/2002 9:43:01 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: caa26
In the Baltimore area, Ehrlich is shown with a 53 to 43 lead over Townsend with four percent undecided. In the remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties, Townsend leads 58 to 36 over Ehrlich, with six percent undecided.

Does anyone else find this puzzling as hell?

Since when does the GOP lead in a huge city and trail everywhere else?! It was the heavily black areas of Baltimore where Paris Glendening manufactured enough votes to steal the '94 election.

15 posted on 08/06/2002 11:40:15 AM PDT by winin2000
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To: winin2000
In the Baltimore area, Ehrlich is shown with a 53 to 43 lead over Townsend with four percent undecided. In the remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties, Townsend leads 58 to 36 over Ehrlich, with six percent undecided.

Does anyone else find this puzzling as hell?

It is rather confusing, depending on just what they mean by "Baltimore area" and "remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties". Just what cities/counties are considered in these two areas?

Nevertheless, Ehrlich is best known in the "Baltimore area" since he has been elected there many times. He is less well known in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore but has great possibilities in both of these since they are more conservative and more Republican.

His big task will be in Baltimore city, Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties (lots of blacks, government workers, etc.).

One extremely good sign is his numbers among blacks (23%). Blacks in Maryland typically vote DemocRAT in excess of 90%. Lots of politically savvy people say that he has a very good chance if he can get 20% of the black vote. If the poll is correct, he's just about there (considering the possible error) or has exceeded that level.

Face it, he's gotta get some black votes for having had the courage to put a black Lt. Gov. candidate on his ticket, when the "big liberal, civil rights advocate, DemocRAT defender of the blacks" didn't pick a black running mate. Some blacks have got to see the hypocrisy.

16 posted on 08/06/2002 12:21:25 PM PDT by jackbill
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To: jackbill
Bump
17 posted on 08/07/2002 6:38:26 AM PDT by Coop
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To: winin2000
The other Dem areas of the state are Prince Georges and Montgomery. Those, plus Baltimore, are enough to win any election.
Maybe someday more of the rest of us will vote....
18 posted on 08/09/2002 8:10:39 PM PDT by speekinout
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