Posted on 08/06/2002 7:25:12 AM PDT by caa26
A newly-released statewide poll shows the race for Governor of Maryland as a dead heat.
Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is shown with support from 48 percent of the Marylanders surveyed by telephone on Saturday, August 3, while Republican Robert Ehrlich is supported by 47 percent. Five percent of those surveyed are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points using the overall sample.
The poll, conducted for WJLA(TV) in Washington, also known as 'ABC-7', shows that Townsend's support overall has fallen 11 points since a similar ABC-7 survey released about a month ago.
The new results say that 26 percent of the self-identified Democrats in the poll say they would cross party lines to vote for Ehrlich, with 17 percent of the Republicans saying the would cross over to Townsend. Independents are breaking five to three for Ehrlich, with self-identified conservatives going two to one for the Republican, and those saying they are liberals going three to one for Townsend. Participants calling themselves moderates are evenly split between the two candidates.
In the Baltimore area, Ehrlich is shown with a 53 to 43 lead over Townsend with four percent undecided. In the remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties, Townsend leads 58 to 36 over Ehrlich, with six percent undecided.
The poll shows Ehrlich leading among men 52 percent to Townsend's 42 percent with six percent undecided. Among women, Townsend leads Ehrlich 53 to 42 with five percent undecided. In ABC-7's poll last month, Townsend had a 30 point lead among women compared with today's 11 percent margin.
The new survey also says that Ehrlich has 58 percent support statewide among participants identifying themselves as white, compared with 38 percent for Townsend and four percent undecided. Among blacks, Townsend has 70 percent support, Ehrlich 23 percent and seven percent undecided. Hispanic voters surveyed go 61 percent for Townsend, 35 percent for Ehrlich and four percent undecided. Townsend also gets 60 percent support among persons identifying themselves as 'other', with 32 percent of this group going for Ehrlich and eight percent undecided. Hispanic is defined as an ethnicity, not a race, hence members of the group may be of any race.
The poll was conducted Saturday, August 3 from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. by telephone with a sample of 669 participants
This is awesome! Ehrlich can't lose!!
He's a cinch in this Republican stronghold!!!
A Kennedy can't possibly overcome all of Ehrlich's advantages!!
Whew! I'm tired.
But if the race is this tight on election eve, it doesn't bode well. Ask Ellen Sauerbrey what happens to Republicans on election night in the People's Communist Republic of Maryland. Answer: the Rats simply fraud up a few thousand votes (or whatever they need) in the massive Baltimore ghetto and open those boxes just before midnight. KKKT wins by a nose!
DWG
The only real effect is that each vote he takes from Ehrlich is one less graveyard vote the Rats have to conjure.
What an outstanding chance for Maryland to start toward removing that "People's Republic" from its name. Good luck.
Prayers for Rep. Ehrlich--he is definitely one of the good guys.
No way!! It's not possible!!! Maryland is a Republican stronghold! He's a guaranteed victor!!!!
It was in her blood before Spendenning came along...
That's how KKT became Lieutenant Gov. in the first place, isn't it? Wasn't there a bunch of suspiciously late votes that came in from Baltimore that just put Glendenning over the top? Let's pray God won't allow them to get away with this crime.
Does anyone else find this puzzling as hell?
Since when does the GOP lead in a huge city and trail everywhere else?! It was the heavily black areas of Baltimore where Paris Glendening manufactured enough votes to steal the '94 election.
Does anyone else find this puzzling as hell?
It is rather confusing, depending on just what they mean by "Baltimore area" and "remainder of the state excluding Baltimore and the nearby counties". Just what cities/counties are considered in these two areas?
Nevertheless, Ehrlich is best known in the "Baltimore area" since he has been elected there many times. He is less well known in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore but has great possibilities in both of these since they are more conservative and more Republican.
His big task will be in Baltimore city, Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties (lots of blacks, government workers, etc.).
One extremely good sign is his numbers among blacks (23%). Blacks in Maryland typically vote DemocRAT in excess of 90%. Lots of politically savvy people say that he has a very good chance if he can get 20% of the black vote. If the poll is correct, he's just about there (considering the possible error) or has exceeded that level.
Face it, he's gotta get some black votes for having had the courage to put a black Lt. Gov. candidate on his ticket, when the "big liberal, civil rights advocate, DemocRAT defender of the blacks" didn't pick a black running mate. Some blacks have got to see the hypocrisy.
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