Posted on 07/13/2002 4:12:58 PM PDT by vannrox
Election 2002 All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.
Generic House ballot test
Control of CongressState and local campaign polls are available in the subscriber area of our web site. INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING
Generic House Ballot Test Polls listed chronologically.
Public Opinion Strategies (R). Latest: June 30-July 1, 2002. N=800 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. | ||||||
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"And thinking ahead to the next U.S. congressional election in your district in November: If the election were held today, for whom would you vote: [rotate] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? [If Republican/Democrat, ask:] And would you say you would DEFINITELY be voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate or just PROBABLY voting for the Republican/Democrat candidate? [If undecided, ask:] Which way do you lean as of today? Do you lean toward the Democratic or Republican candidate?" |
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Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Undecided/ Refused |
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% | % | % | ||||
6/30 - 7/1/02 | 45 | 42 | 13 | |||
5/28 - 6/2/02 | 42 | 42 | 16 | |||
5/7-9/02 | 42 | 41 | 17 | |||
4/15-18/02 | 43 | 40 | 17 | |||
3/19-25/02 | 43 | 40 | 17 | |||
2/27-28/02 | 40 | 37 | 23 | |||
1/14-16/02 | 41 | 38 | 21 | |||
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CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: June 28-30, 2002. N=865 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4. | ||||||
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"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district [rotate]: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [rotate] the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.)/ Undecided |
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% | % | % | ||||
6/28-30/02 | 49 | 44 | 7 | |||
6/21-23/02 | 42 | 50 | 8 | |||
5/28-29/02 | 46 | 45 | 9 | |||
4/29 - 5/1/02 | 44 | 48 | 8 | |||
4/5-7/02 | 43 | 50 | 7 | |||
3/02 | 46 | 46 | 8 | |||
2/02 | 47 | 43 | 10 | |||
1/25-27/02 | 46 | 44 | 10 | |||
1/11-14/02 | 46 | 43 | 11 | |||
12/01 | 48 | 43 | 9 | |||
11/01 | 45 | 45 | 10 | |||
6/01 | 45 | 49 | 6 | |||
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Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Latest: June 18-24, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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". . . If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | |||
6/02 | 43 | 45 | 1 | 10 | ||
5/02 | 44 | 45 | 1 | 10 | ||
4/02 | 42 | 46 | 2 | 11 | ||
2/26 - 3/3/02 | 44 | 44 | 2 | 10 | ||
1/02 | 45 | 45 | 2 | 8 | ||
12/01 | 44 | 43 | 2 | 11 | ||
9/01 | 43 | 47 | 2 | 8 | ||
6/01 | 44 | 46 | 2 | 7 | ||
4/01 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 12 | ||
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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: June 19-23, 2002. N=941 registered voters nationwide. | ||||||
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"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other/ Undecided |
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% | % | % | ||||
6/02 | 44 | 46 | 10 | |||
2/02 | 46 | 45 | 9 | |||
11/01 | 44 | 44 | 12 | |||
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CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Latest: June 19-20, 2002. N=841 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4. | ||||||
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"If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district or for the Republican candidate?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | |||
6/02 | 40 | 49 | 3 | 8 | ||
5/02 | 44 | 48 | 2 | 6 | ||
4/02 | 42 | 45 | 3 | 10 | ||
1/02 | 43 | 47 | 2 | 8 | ||
10/12/01 | 46 | 45 | 2 | 7 | ||
9/27/01 | 42 | 46 | 2 | 10 | ||
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CBS News Poll. Latest: June 18-20, 2002. N=748 registered voters nationwide. | ||||||
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"If the 2002 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Depends (vol.) |
Don't Know |
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% | % | % | % | |||
6/02 | 38 | 37 | 12 | 13 | ||
5/02 | 40 | 40 | 9 | 11 | ||
2/02 | 40 | 40 | 11 | 9 | ||
1/02 | 37 | 39 | 10 | 14 | ||
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Bloomberg News Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: June 11-16, 2002. N=1,201 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. | ||||||
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"If the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.) |
Wouldn't Vote (vol.) |
Don't Know |
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% | % | % | % | % | ||
6/02 | 36 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 20 | |
4-5/02 | 34 | 38 | - | 3 | 24 | |
1/02 | 38 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 20 | |
12/01 | 35 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 23 | |
11/01 | 36 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 22 | |
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Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D) Battleground Survey. Latest: June 9-11, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for U.S. Congress -- If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for [rotate] the Republican candidate OR the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other/ Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
6/02 | 39 | 44 | 16 | |||
1/02 | 41 | 39 | 20 | |||
4/01* | 35 | 39 | 26 | |||
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* Among registered voters | ||||||
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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: June 8-10, 2002. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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"In this year's election for U.S. House of Representatives, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean at this time? | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Depends (vol.) |
Other/ Neither/ Won't Vote (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | % | ||
6/02 | 33 | 35 | 15 | 3 | 14 | |
4/02 | 33 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 12 | |
1/02 | 34 | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | |
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Zogby America Poll. Latest: May 28-30, 2002. N=1,015 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2. | ||||||
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"In the congressional race in 2002, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Neither/ Other/ Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
5/28-30/02 | 34 | 34 | 32 | |||
4/19-22/02 * | 30 | 36 | 34 | |||
3/25-27/02 * | 33 | 31 | 36 | |||
3/8-10/02 * | 32 | 33 | 36 | |||
3/1-3/02 * | 29 | 33 | 38 | |||
1/29-31/02 | 32 | 32 | 36 | |||
1/21-23/02 | 29 | 32 | 39 | |||
1/2-4/02 | 31 | 31 | 38 | |||
12/17-19/01 | 32 | 29 | 40 | |||
8/28-30/01 | 25 | 31 | 44 | |||
6/24-26/01 | 28 | 38 | 34 | |||
4/23-25/01 | 27 | 32 | 42 | |||
3/27-28/01 | 28 | 30 | 42 | |||
2/27-28/01 | 25 | 30 | 45 | |||
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* Among registered voters | ||||||
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League of Conservation Voters Education Fund poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 13-19, 2002. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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"Now, thinking about the election this November: If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district where you live?" |
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Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | |||
3/02 | 36 | 38 | 10 | 15 | ||
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American Viewpoint (R) National Monitor. March 6-11, 2002. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. | ||||||
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"Thinking ahead to the 2002 elections for a moment, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the [rotate] Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
3/02 | 35 | 34 | 32 | |||
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FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Feb. 26-27, 2002. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. | ||||||
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"...If the congressional election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Other/ Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
2/02 | 40 | 32 | 28 | |||
12/01 | 40 | 29 | 31 | |||
3/01 | 38 | 36 | 26 | |||
1/01 | 33 | 38 | 29 | |||
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The Los Angeles Times Poll. Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 2002. N=1,545 adults nationwide. Results shown are among registered voters. | ||||||
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"If the election for Congress were being held today, which party would you like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- cratic |
Neither (vol.) |
Other Party (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | % | ||
2/02 | 41 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
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ABC News and The Washington Post. Jan. 24-27, 2002. N=1,507 adults nationwide. Results shown are among registered voters. | ||||||
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"Thinking about the U.S. House of Representatives election in November, in the congressional district where you live, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?" If "Neither," "Don't know," or "Refused," ask: "Who would you lean toward?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Neither (vol.) |
Wouldn't Vote (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | % | ||
1/02 | 50 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
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EMILY's List poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang (D). Jan. 2-8, 2002. N=1,205 active voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9. | ||||||
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"In the election for U.S. Congress that will be held later this year, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If "Not sure" or "Depends," ask: "Well, all other things being equal, do you lean more toward the Democrat or more toward the Republican?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- crat |
Neither (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | |||
1/02 | 32 | 31 | 3 | 34 | ||
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Control of Congress Polls listed chronologically.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: July 5-8, 2002. N=1,013 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. | ||||||
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"Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, or if the Democrats controlled Congress?" | ||||||
Repub- licans |
Demo- crats |
Neither (vol.) |
Same (vol.) |
No Opinion |
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% | % | % | % | % | ||
7/02 | 40 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 7 | |
1/02 | 44 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
10/01 | 38 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 7 | |
8/01 | 34 | 43 | 10 | 6 | 7 | |
4/01 | 41 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 7 | |
1/01 | 39 | 41 | 7 | 5 | 8 | |
7/99 | 37 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 7 | |
6/99 | 41 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | |
5/99 | 36 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 9 | |
12/98 | 30 | 41 | 13 | 5 | 11 | |
9/98 | 35 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 10 | |
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Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. Latest: June 21-23, 2002. N=797 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.6. | ||||||
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"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?" | ||||||
Repub- licans |
Demo- crats |
Neither (vol.) |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | % | |||
6/21-23/02 | 45 | 39 | 13 | 3 | ||
6/7-9/02 | 44 | 39 | 12 | 5 | ||
5/17-19/02 | 44 | 40 | 12 | 4 | ||
5/3-6/02 | 43 | 40 | 12 | 5 | ||
4/19-21/02 | 44 | 41 | 10 | 5 | ||
4/12-14 & 19-21/02 | 45 | 39 | 11 | 5 | ||
3/14-17/02 | 39 | 44 | 14 | 4 | ||
3/1-3/02 | 42 | 40 | 13 | 4 | ||
2/1-3 - 2/15-17/02 | 43 | 41 | 12 | 4 | ||
1/18-21 & 2/1-3/02 | 46 | 39 | 11 | 4 | ||
1/4-6/02 | 44 | 43 | 9 | 3 | ||
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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: June 8-10, 2002. N=1,008 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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"What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2002 congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans, or a Congress controlled by Democrats?" | ||||||
Repub- licans |
Demo- crats |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
6/02 | 42 | 41 | 17 | |||
1/02 | 44 | 40 | 16 | |||
12/01 | 42 | 40 | 18 | |||
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Ipsos-Reid Express. Nov 30-Dec. 2, 2001. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1. | ||||||
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"And if the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of Congress?" | ||||||
Repub- lican |
Demo- cratic |
Not Sure |
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% | % | % | ||||
11/30 - 12/2/01 | 48 | 39 | 13 | |||
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It would be even more useful if we knew where these voters were located and whether their existing rep. was D or R. As it is, it really says nothing more than it's a crap shoot.
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