Why didn't I listen to Bob Brinker? He called the bear market in 2000 - and is no Pollyanna today

bobbrinker.com ^ | june 29, 02 | churchillbuff

[churchillbuff]

Brinker - who has the nationally syndicated "Money Talk" radio show on Saturdays and Sundays - - put out a sell signal in Jan., 2000, I think it was, at what turned out to be the precise peak of the market. Ever since, the Dow's been going down - but a lot of the financial talking heads on TV have, all along, persisted in predicting imminent turnaround. Not Brinker. Valuations still too high, he has said all along. It's tough to hear such talk - easier to listen to happy talk - - but Brinker's been right! He says we're in a possible 18 year flat to bear "secular" trend. Given his track record, I'm not gonna reject that out of hand.

[churchillbuff]

One blind spot for Brinker - he doesn't call for tax cuts. I think if Bush were to push for real, REAGAN-STYLE tax cuts, we could get the market going the way RR did in the 80s.

[Fury]

I managed to do a major switch of investments around the beginning of February 2000, in large part due to the information provided by Bob Brinker. For the meltdown that started in April 2000, he was pretty much on the mark.

[sinkspur]

He says we're in a possible 18 year flat to bear "secular" trend.

Brinker's pretty good, but he's not good enough to make this kind of prediction.

[mercy]

****I think if Bush were to push for real, REAGAN-STYLE tax cuts, we could get the market going the way RR did in the 80s.****

Oh noooooooooooooo! Not the 'unbridled greed' of the eighties! ANYTHING but THAT. HEAVENS!

[galt-jw]

brinker was the only guy out there telling like it is. you have to give him credit. well, i think warren buffet was bearish also, and into bonds.

[Alberta's Child]

Brinker was not exactly right on target. If I remember correctly, he issued his "sell" signal in late 1999, not early 2000. I'm quite certain of this because his show was carried by a local station in the fall of 1999 but I wasn't around to hear him in 2000.

I've noticed that over the last two years he's kept pushing the date of his "call" closer to the start of the March 2000 collapse.

[Grampa Dave]

I stopped listening to Brinker when he was Bradley's cheer leader and was against tax cuts.

Every so called financial expert who is a Rat voter and supporter should be forced to wear big Clinton/Gore buttons super glued on their foreheads. That would be fair warning to all who watch and listen to them.

Brinker admitted to voting for the Bent One in 1992, and I can't remember whom he voted for in 1996.

Voting for Bradley and Clinton makes him a Rat Whacko and not to be trusted.

[snopercod]

There are many similarities to the 1973 bear market, I think. It took twelve years to break even back then, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened now.

Some stocks are doing well, though. Lockheed, for instance.

[churchillbuff]

I stopped listening to Brinker when he was Bradley's cheer leader and was against tax cuts.

I definitely agree that he doesn't seem clued in on politics and policy issues. Although, if pressed, he'll say cap gain taxes should be cut or eliminated, he doesn't push this issue - - even though it's a vital matter for both fairness and economic health. in contrast, Rukheser (sp?) is big on tax cuts - - but he hasn't been warning people out of the market the way Brinker has. So in dollars and cents terms, Brinker's been a much more valuable advisor

[churchillbuff]

I stopped listening to Brinker when he was Bradley's cheer leader and was against tax cuts.

I definitely agree that he doesn't seem clued in on politics and policy issues. Although, if pressed, he'll say cap gain taxes should be cut or eliminated, he doesn't push this issue - - even though it's a vital matter for both fairness and economic health. in contrast, Rukheser (sp?) is big on tax cuts - - but he hasn't been warning people out of the market the way Brinker has. So in dollars and cents terms, Brinker's been a much more valuable advisor

[churchillbuff]

I stopped listening to Brinker when he was Bradley's cheer leader and was against tax cuts.

I definitely agree that he doesn't seem clued in on politics and policy issues. Although, if pressed, he'll say cap gain taxes should be cut or eliminated, he doesn't push this issue - - even though it's a vital matter for both fairness and economic health. in contrast, Rukheser (sp?) is big on tax cuts - - but he hasn't been warning people out of the market the way Brinker has. So in dollars and cents terms, Brinker's been a much more valuable advisor

[VOA]

If I remember correctly, he issued his "sell" signal in late 1999, not early 2000.

I can't remember the exact dates...but I suspect the call was a few months before the actual
peak for stocks.
The reason I say this is I think I remember a month or two of calls from people telling
him what a fool he was to tell people to "get out".

The real, total point is this: if you'd been with Brinker for at least three or four years
before that peak, and listened to his call to exit the markets, you'd done pretty good.

Those who refused to listen and "stayed the course" are now enjoying events like Worldcom, etc.

Brinker misses some of the calls, but his overall track record is admirable.
I think the current malaise will go on at least a year more as we uncover most all
of the significant accounting/lying scandals...and find out if we've really squished the
radical Islamicists.

Oh, and at least one painful, one-day "capitulation" is probably necessary as well.

[berned]

The world of Investment Advisor Letters has hundreds and hundreds of "advisors" who continually and perpetually predict bear markets even through the very best of times. The most classic recent example is Elaine Garzarelli who screamed SELL SELL SELL in 1996!!!!!! (Thereby missing one of the hugest bull mkt upswings in history and losing her "advisor letter" in the process.)

Then after a bear mkt DOES coincidentally come along, these perpetual bears always wearily "take credit".

[Grampa Dave]

It is just a personal bias of mine, not to pay attention to anyone who is a Rat supporter and voter.

I used to listen to Brinker until 2000, and to me, he got very squirrely. That was when he came out for Bradley, and a caller got him to admit that he voted for Clinton in 92.

Some of his mutual fund recommendations from 2000 on were disasters.

[VOA]

And for the eventual rally...
A few "show-trials" for the heads of Andersen Accounting, WorldCom, Enron, Global
Crossing, Xerox, and all the rest would serve notice to the captains of industry to get
their acts together.

[caltaxed]

I believe Brinker recommended selling when the Nasdaq was at just over 4000, and the Dow and S&P 500 were at all time highs.

Brinker then foolishly recomended investing in the QQQ's which were trading in the 80's (20-35% of portfolio) and advised to hold (now at 26+).

Brinker is a fiscal conservative and feels that tax cuts should be used to stimulate the economy. He was opposed to tax cuts at a time when economy was allready overheated and the fed was increasing rates to slow the economy.

[rohry]

Wow! First time I've ever seen a "triple post."

[operation clinton cleanup]

He says we're in a possible 18 year flat to bear "secular" trend.

18 year or 18 months?!

[Grampa Dave]

Exactly these bad news bears are just as bad as the bullish buy all the time guys. That is why after Brinker lost my confidence, I became my own advisor. We did very well in 2001 and are beating the market this year with most of our funds.

I will credit Bob Brinker for his constant warnings about the insanity of the pe ratios during the Clintoonian Bull years. Those warnings kept me from losing big time on our 401k's, iras and the church savings program which I advised and basically set the decisions. All of these programs have increased their value and not had devastating losses since 2000 like so many of my friends who got caught in the bear trap of 2000 to now.

[Alberta's Child]

Brinker misses some of the calls, but his overall track record is admirable.

I agree, but I suspect that much of this is the result of dumb luck. As someone once said, if market-timers really knew what the heck they were talking about, they would all be the richest people in the world! I don't think Brinker would even make a list of the 5,000 wealthiest Americans, which tells me how little confidence he has in his own predictions.