Believe it or not - Playing the war game - The disturbing results of a recent war simulation

Har har etz ^ | Saturday, June 22, 2002 Tamuz 12, 5762 | Amnon Barzilai

[Phil V.]

Saturday, June 22, 2002 Tamuz 12, 5762

w w w . h a a r e t z d a i l y . c o m

---

Believe it or not

The events began to unfold on the morning of June 5, 2002: Almost nine months after the terror attack on New York's World Trade Towers, the United States launched an attack on the strongholds of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Thus began the war scenario in the simulation game conducted by the School of Government and Policy at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Zeev Maoz. But from that point on, the game branched out into surprising directions that left even the experienced players gaping.

About two weeks ago, the participants met for three days at Kibbutz Nir Etzion. Overlooking an amazing view from Mount Carmel, they conducted a war game. Unwittingly, as pawns in the hands of the simulation management that devised the scenario, the participants expressed the government of Israel's ineffectiveness and paralysis, its predictable moves and lack of imagination and creativity. Israel's decision-makers were caught in the grip of the concept.

The idea - developed by Maoz and Haim Assa, who served as head of the strategic team of the late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin - was presented to National Security Council chairman Major General Uzi Dayan over six months ago. The two proposed to Dayan that they hold a war simulation with an emphasis on the policy aspects, so that the lessons would provide food for thought to decision-makers and also perhaps improve their functioning. A management team was set up and comprised of Dayan, Maoz, Assa and Brigadier General (res.) Dr. Shimon Naveh.

Premature enthusiasm

In order for the game to approximate reality closely, Dayan wanted to involve senior officers to represent the General Staff and also to put them in the other side's shoes, and not just use experts from academia and the media. Thus, for example, it was suggested that the coordinator of government activities in the West Bank and Gaza, Major General Amos Gilad, would play the head of the Palestinian team and perhaps assume the role of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. His successor at Military Intelligence, research division head Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser, was to be director general of the Arab League. The head of the Plans and Policy Directorate, Major General Giora Eiland, was supposed to have represented the Israel Defense Forces General Staff.

Dayan expected that there would be sensitivity on the political level and, therefore, the only one to hold a position in the virtual government was Minister Dan Meridor, who was happy to accept the offer to be prime minister.

However, the enthusiasm was premature. The Israeli establishment had reservations about the American model from which the initiators took their idea. Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Shaul Mofaz reacted angrily and forbade his officers to take part. The Prime Minister's Office also reacted coldly. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that he was not interested in war games in which the players have anything to do with him or his government.

Those administering the exercise figured that Sharon was suspicious about the meanings or interpretations that would be given to the game. Though it was promised that the simulation would take place under a heavy blanket of secrecy, there could be no guarantees against leaks. The suspicious Sharon might have suspected that they would serve his opponents. And also, either the lessons drawn from the game would limit his actions, or would be held against him if something under his responsibility did not function well.

Nevertheless, the decision was not to give up on the simulation, and its management was transferred from the National Security Council to TAU's School of Government. Instead of officers on active duty, senior reserve officers were invited. Meridor was replaced by Dr. Uzi Arad, who was the policy advisor to former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Former chief of staff Lieutenant General (res.) Dan Shomron was appointed defense minister. Dr. Yehuda Ben-Meir, formerly the deputy foreign minister, was bumped up to foreign minister and Major General (res.) Dr. Yitzhak Ben-Yisrael was appointed chief of staff. The attorney-general was Prof. Ze'ev Segal. The representatives of the right in the government were played by Yisrael Harel, and the representatives of the left by former minister Prof. Yuli Tamir.

On the Palestinian side, former head of Military Intelligence, Major General (res.) Shlomo Gazit, played Arafat. Israel's former ambassador to Jordan, Oded Aran, served as U.S. President George W. Bush and Ha'aretz commentator Ze'ev Schiff played Vice President Richard Cheney. On the Arab team, Middle East specialist Prof. Dan Shiftan took the role of King Abdullah of Jordan and other Middle East specialists represented other Arab states. An international team and a terror team were set up. Participants on the media team were Prof. Gabi Weiman, Dr. Mina Zemach and journalists Yair Stern and Rami Tal.

Collapse of Jordan

Several hours after the American attack on Iraq was launched, an American spy satellite reported movements by Iraqi military forces in the direction of Jordan. As a result, during the next five days, the following events occurred: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Jordan flew Iraqi flags and displayed pictures of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. The Palestinians rioted and the Jordanian army lost control. The kingdom was on the verge of anarchy. A correspondent for the Sky network reported that, according to rumors from Amman, King Abdullah had been killed in an armed attack on his vehicle. At a joint press conference, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned Israel not to exploit the degenerating situation in Jordan in order to invade its territories.

The simulation game came into play on June 10, the fifth day of the American attack on Iraq. Because of the fear of an Iraqi invasion of Jordan, the government of Israel took several steps: It requested consultation with the United States, called up reserves and ordered the Home Front Command to distribute protective kits against atomic, biological and chemical attacks on civilians for fear that ground-to-ground missiles armed with these substances might be launched.

Before that, the White House made a surprising move that, in retrospect, had far-reaching effects on events: At a press conference, the president declared his support for the collapsing Jordanian regime and for sending rapid deployment forces to save it. The PA appealed to Israel's Defense Ministry with a request that protective kits be distributed to the Palestinian civilian population as well. Those in charge of the game decided to leak this to the international media.

From the headquarters it set up, the game management headed by Prof. Maoz used a computer to follow the work of the various teams, which were located in nearby buildings. Each team had a student and a psychologist attached to it. One documented the events in the room; the other evaluated the feelings and the relationships that developed among the team members, and among them and the other teams.

"I'm playing God here," joked Maoz when, from time to time, he sent out instructions to the teams. Once he limited the duration of the reserve call-up to two days. Another time, he restrained the response of the terror organization team when he estimated that an exaggerated number of attacks would overturn the intentions of the game.

Although the battles were raging in Iraq, the simulation game's managers asked that attention be focused on three areas: the Palestinian ferment in Jordan, the PA and the government of Israel. In the latter, an argument broke out over the future of Jordan. The right wing (Harel) argued that a Palestinian takeover of Jordan would be a long-term strategic outlet for lowering pressure for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank. At his own initiative, Harel contacted the Palestinian team about this, but was rebuffed. The left wing (Tamir) dismissed this and said scornfully that on this issue, the right represents "a vociferous but very small element."

`Ripe fruit'

The chief of staff suggested deploying IDF troops around the centers of power in Jordan, to protect them from the Palestinians. The right pressured: It won't work. The Americans can deploy forces wherever they want, but if 70 percent of the population is not prepared to come to terms with the regime ...

The chief of staff: "In Lebanon, the Americans were successful."

The right: "If the Americans see that the royal house is not significant, they will leave Jordan. And then a Palestinian regime will arise and we will be facing another hostile state."

The media pressured the government of Israel to react to rumors that Israel would take a positive view of a Palestinian takeover of Jordan.

The prime minister replied: "The rumors do not reflect Israeli policy. Our policy is to restore law and order in Jordan quickly."

The foreign minister reported that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had told him regarding the situation in Jordan that "we should not think of anything connected to moving people from place to place."

In the government, the following discussion ensued:

The prime minister: "I want to take preemptive action."

The chief of staff: "I suggest that we don't take the IDF into Jordan. But this needs a policy discussion, not a military discussion."

The foreign minister: "Let us suppose that the regime falls and a republic is declared in Jordan."

The defense minister: "This means that a Palestinian state would arise between the Iraqi border and Qalqilyah."

The prime minister: "What are the alternatives for Israel? Can the Plans and Policy Directorate of the IDF produce alternatives?"

The defense minister: "The state of Palestine will be established in Jordan."

The foreign minister: "What do you gain from this?"

The right: "The public opinion surveys are showing full support for the establishment of the state of Palestine in Jordan."

The prime minister, in an interim summation, expresses satisfaction with his policy. Syria is sitting on the sidelines. Lebanon deploys its army in the south. "The righteous have their work done for them by others. The Americans are dealing with Iraq, in Jordan there are upheavals and to this day, not a single Israeli has been killed," notes the prime minister (Arad).

The left mentioned the way then prime minister Yitzhak Shamir acted during the Gulf War, adding: "We are satisfied with the situation and with the government's policy of restraint."

At the same time, the Palestinian team also discussed the situation in Jordan. The collapse of the monarchy and the establishment of a Palestinian state are not in accord with Arafat's interests.

Said Arafat (Gazit): "The Israelis want to get rid of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan. A Palestinian state in Jordan will fall into their hands like ripe fruit. This could serve as an excuse for transfer and will distract attention from our effort to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank."

Chemical missiles in Israel

Warning sirens shake Israel on the seventh day of the American attack on Iraq. The Israeli radar system warns of an attack by 15 missiles launched from Iraq. Twelve of the missiles are intercepted by Arrow missiles and three missiles bearing chemical warheads land in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Yavneh. There are casualties.

The government discusses its response to the firing of the missiles. The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons and have called upon the inhabitants of Baghdad to evacuate the city. A Channel One reporter bursts into the government meeting room and announces that a smart bomb has hit Saddam's bunker and killed him. Then the government also wakes up to action.

The chief of staff: "What do you think of eliminating Arafat on the background of the general upheaval?"

The defense minister supports the proposal.

The prime minister: "An IDF force has acted in response to the Palestinian provocations and aggression and has eliminated the leaders of the PA and Arafat."

_{By Amnon Barzilai}

---

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Nuke Saudi Arabia.

[Thud]

ping

[Husker24]

I think the point is moot, any Iraqi forces heading west into Jordan would be destroyed the first day of the war.

[crypt2k]

The Israeli radar system warns of an attack by 15 missiles launched from Iraq. Twelve of the missiles are intercepted by Arrow missiles and three missiles bearing chemical warheads land in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Yavneh.

If missiles bearing chemical/biological agents are intercepted over the target country, doesn't that INCREASE the efficiency of dispersal?

[Tree of Liberty]

I might be wrong, but the heat of the explosion might kill most of the microbes in a biological weapon. I don't know how this would effect a chemical weapon.

[Tree of Liberty]

Don't forget that Jordan's filled to the brim with Iraqi fith-columnists (the "palestinians"). If they get wind of a possible invasion by Iraq, whether effective or not, they will probably instigate a civil war on their side of th border.

[Phil V.]

There is probably no pat answer to your question. If the effect is a function of concentration then dispersal at high altitude MIGHT diminish or negate the effect. Probably depends on the threshold needed to cause harm

[xzins]

Not true of chemical, but it may be true of biological. If I remember correctly, chems have a particular dispersal rate and time of effectiveness. They're used as blocking weapons to channel enemy forces into certain avenues of approach and to deny other avenues of approach for just those reasons.

When the chem has reached its limit then the friendly forces are then able to use the contaminated area.

[walden]

Is there supposed to be a down-side to this scenario? Arafat dead, Hussein dead, the Jordanian king deposed and/or dead (I used to think he was a "moderate" Arab, but there is truly no such thing.) And, we have a problem with all of this because? Hmmmm.

Virtually every Arab state government needs to either fall or change. The Saudis need to fall, Iran needs to fall, Iraq, Syria, and on and on. The only Arab government worth a damn is, I believe, Bahrain, where their western-educated leader is steadily moving the country towards representative democracy.

[gitmo]

Interesting.
Jordan is the designated homeland for the Palestinian arabs. And the model led the players into a re-establishment of that concept.

[Dog]

Interesting

[Lael]

Virtually every Arab state government needs to either fall or change.

I have been saying since the first intefada in 1987 that things will only end with an expulsion...either the Arabs, or the Israelis.

Unfortunately, given the mush brained Left, the odds seem to favour the Jews getting the 'Heave Ho'.

Never have I seen a people so apparantly incapable of self defence. And I find THAT really Tragic!!

[Always A Marine]

...Jordan is the designated homeland for the Palestinian arabs. And the model led the players into a re-establishment of that concept.

BINGO! Jordan IS the Palestinian state. That it is ruled by a Hashemite king (imported by the British from Mecca, Saudi Arabia) is but a thin and temporary camouflage. The solution is obvious -- and should have been to all since the Six Day War (1967) and the events of Black September (1970).

[Focault's Pendulum]

The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons

This is the only part of the simulation I find a possibility of error. Is there any offered proof other than a chem/bio attack, we would exercise a nuclear option of strategic value rather than tactical?

[zeromus]

The article just said there were 15 missiles incoming. I suppose in the situation, one should shoot first, and ask questions later. Youd have a much easier time explaining the consequences of shooting down missiles of unknown character than letting them hit their urban targets!

[Grampa Dave]

The Israelis are so good at this cat and mouse game.

The government discusses its response to the firing of the missiles. The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons and have called upon the inhabitants of Baghdad to evacuate the city. A Channel One reporter bursts into the government meeting room and announces that a smart bomb has hit Saddam's bunker and killed him. Then the government also wakes up to action.

The chief of staff: "What do you think of eliminating Arafat on the background of the general upheaval?"

The defense minister supports the proposal.

The prime minister: "An IDF force has acted in response to the Palestinian provocations and aggression and has eliminated the leaders of the PA and Arafat."

By releasing this, the Israelis have sent out two messages if we decide to attack Iraq.

One to Saddam, you are dead. You can't run nor hide from the Candy Gram message, the President will send to you.

The second one to Arafat, You and your PA terrorists are dead!

You can bet that those who rule Jordan, the Saddam and the Arafatty have read these loud and clear messages.

[Focault's Pendulum]

You can bet that those who rule Jordan, the Saddam and the Arafatty have read these loud and clear messages.

You are of course, correct for some of the reasoning behind this release.

I am however, still concerned about the reference to the nuclear option. Wouldn't a B52 strike pretty much reduce Bagdhad to rubble? Any thoughts on this?

[Grampa Dave]

This was an Israeli War Game, wasn't it?

So if they came up with the nuclear weapons being used, they did this for the reasons in my reply above.

I don't want to even try to predict what we will do re when/what/where re our war efforts, let along the Israelis.

This as a great way to warn: the King of Jordan what would happen, Saddam that a Candy Gram will be coming his way from GW, and Arafatty if your clymers act up when the US takes out Saddam, you and your top thugs will become bits and pieces and sold for pig food.

[Focault's Pendulum]

Saddam that a Candy Gram will be coming his way from GW, and Arafatty if your clymers act up when the US takes out Saddam, you and your top thugs will become bits and pieces and sold for pig food.

I think you're going a mite easy on them.