If missiles bearing chemical/biological agents are intercepted over the target country, doesn't that INCREASE the efficiency of dispersal?
This is the only part of the simulation I find a possibility of error. Is there any offered proof other than a chem/bio attack, we would exercise a nuclear option of strategic value rather than tactical?
The government discusses its response to the firing of the missiles. The chief of staff reports that the Americans are planning to bomb Iraq with atomic weapons and have called upon the inhabitants of Baghdad to evacuate the city. A Channel One reporter bursts into the government meeting room and announces that a smart bomb has hit Saddam's bunker and killed him. Then the government also wakes up to action.
The chief of staff: "What do you think of eliminating Arafat on the background of the general upheaval?"
The defense minister supports the proposal.
The prime minister: "An IDF force has acted in response to the Palestinian provocations and aggression and has eliminated the leaders of the PA and Arafat."
By releasing this, the Israelis have sent out two messages if we decide to attack Iraq.
One to Saddam, you are dead. You can't run nor hide from the Candy Gram message, the President will send to you.
The second one to Arafat, You and your PA terrorists are dead!
You can bet that those who rule Jordan, the Saddam and the Arafatty have read these loud and clear messages.
Napoleon
If a real war played out the way the simulation did, and the Hashemites were killed and lost Jordan, then even if Arafat didn't want to take Jordan his people would take it without him. I don't see how he could restrain his people from leaving the west bank and heading towards Jordan. They would perceive it as a friendlier place to live then on the west bank.
Since they would have control of Jordan, but still be in hostilities with Israel, natural laws would dictate that, like water, the people will move along the path of least resistence. With heavy resitence on the west bank and none in Jordan, it wouldn't take very long before the west bank emptied itself of Palestinians.
I feel pretty sure all these scenarios have been covered by our generals already. The one that bears watching is Syria.
In the simulation, how did the Palis in Jordan get several hundred thousand Iraqi flags in five days?