Posted on 06/02/2002 4:55:21 AM PDT by Ordinary_American
Edited on 09/03/2002 4:50:35 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
"The former First Lady is positioning herself as a showy centrist for Campaign 2008."
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
Whither Hillary?The former First Lady is positioning herself as a showy centrist for Campaign 2008. But the Republicans also have their favorites waiting in the wings
NEWSWEEK WEB EXCLUSIVE
May 31 — All politics is personal. Nobody knows that better than Hillary Clinton, whom voters seem to either love or hate depending on her latest hairdo or karma with her husband.HILLARY REMAINS resolutely opaque on the subject of her future ambition. Neutral observers give her high marks for the way she has blended into the Senate’s clubby culture, even joining conservative Republicans in a weekly prayer group. The junior senator for New York has never been the wild-eyed liberal her critics imagine, but she must have squirmed just a bit when protesters showed up outside her Washington home in late May objecting to her support for a Republican-backed welfare bill.The former First Lady’s makeover as a political centrist dates back to the shellacking she took as the architect of the health-care plan that almost sank the Clinton presidency. Her acquiescence to punitive welfare rules on poor women is analogous to her husband’s capitulation to his political advisors in 1996, when he signed the original welfare-reform bill that the Republican-controlled House has now voted five years later to toughen. Senator Clinton claimed in a letter to the editor of The New York Times earlier this month that she backs the bill because her intention is to try to improve some of its provisions, like making more money available for child care for mothers required to work more hours.
But the political calculation is transparent, and it may pay off. Hillary is establishing her bona fides as a centrist, which is where elections are won when the country is as divided between the two main parties as we are today. She rebuffs all talk about a presidential run for now and is focused on New York. But watch what she does, not what she says. This is a woman who knows how to keep her options open, and she’s doing it very well.
The likely scenario for 2004 is that President Bush will win re-election. Americans don’t like to change presidents in the middle of war. And you can be sure the war against terrorism will be ongoing, as the Bush administration defines it, until at least election day in 2004. Even if we go a full three years without another attack, Bush will say it doesn’t mean a thing—and who’s to say he’s wrong?
President Clinton is telling friends that Al Gore has a 60 percent chance of winning the nomination in 2004. The likely path for Democrats is that Gore runs again, probably teamed with Sen. Joe Lieberman, on a “We wuz robbed” ticket. Unless Sen. John McCain jumps in the race as an independent and scrambles the numbers, Gore will lose.
Looking ahead to 2008 is therapy for Democrats. “Will Rudy [Giuliani, the former New York mayor] run against Hillary ?” muses a Democratic pollster. “Only if Rudy makes up with W,” he concludes. “Otherwise Bush will block him.” Speculating about a race six years out may be foolish given the vagaries of politics, but it’s such fun. The three biggest GOP stars are McCain, Giuliani and Secretary of State Colin Powell. Each, however, has crossed swords with Bush either personally or ideologically. The successors Bush might prefer, Vice President Dick Cheney or Homeland Security tsar Tom Ridge, are not credible contenders; Cheney because of his health, Ridge because he’s been a dud on TV.
Bush might once have looked to Powell, but their dissonance on hot-button issues like the Middle East and a missile-defense shield have eroded Powell’s popularity with the Bushies. Powell may be a huge hero to everybody in the country, but to Bush’s brain trust, namely Cheney and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, he is a staff officer. They knew him when he was a lieutenant colonel and those hierarchical relationships get set in stone. For his part, Powell is extremely respectful of the chain of command. A Democrat who served in the Carter administration regrets that President Carter didn’t discover Powell when he was just beginning his rise through the ranks. “He’s the guy you dream about,” says this former official. “How could we have let him slip through the net?”
Powell voted Democratic at least through the 1964 election of Lyndon Johnson, and who knows after that. On social issues, he appears to favor the Democrats. But Republicans gave him his breaks, and he is Republican more by circumstance than inclination. He’s an unlikely future candidate for the GOP because the party’s foot soldiers don’t regard Powell as a real Republican.
The country loves Powell, but Bush doesn’t. That doesn’t mean that Powell will quit in disgust or disagreement. Friends who know him say that will never happen. One, he’s a military officer trained to be loyal. And two, as an African-American, he’s very aware he’s carrying a unique historical legacy. He’ll never quit, but he won’t have a second term after the election. “He’s a one-term secretary of State even if Bush wins a second term, and even if Cheney leaves,” says a former ambassador who has worked closely with Powell. And there’s only one person who Bush can replace Powell with, and that’s national-security adviser Condoleezza Rice.
Aside from her race, which would soften the blow of losing Powell, she is the natural successor to the job. There are enough historical precedents that if Bush didn’t promote her, he would be criticized—and deservedly so. Her critics see lapses in her expertise on non-Russian issues and aren’t sure where she stands, if anywhere, on some of the big strategic questions such as the Middle East. But her skills in presenting the administration’s message and staying cool under fire are unsurpassed. “She’s their surrogate daughter,” says a former Clinton official. “They love her, and she’s given her life to them.”
Imagining Rice as the next secretary of State makes Democrats crazy. Not that they don’t think she can do the job. But Clinton made so much of the fact that he was appointing the first woman to the job with Madeleine Albright, having Bush trump him is hard to take. Still, the Clintons have a few cards left to play as well, which is what Hillary’s showy centrism can do: get her ready for 2008.
© 2002 Newsweek, Inc.
What country is she going to run in? Cuba or maybe one of those forward looking african nations?
I always think it is funny when someone says Clinton left Bush with a good economy..and he ruined it.. Clinton left Bush with 8 years of foreign policy incompetency and no military ...thus we get 9/11
Noticeably absent - HRC (can't bring myself to write her name). Intentional ..... ???????
Clift is drinking some heavy duty Kool-aid again
Wow!!!!!! Putting aside the desperate grab for the Barf Bag over Clift's pik and the actual content of what is written........what I am astounded by is the unbridled PROPAGANDA and TRIAL-BALLOONing of this article.
No doubt, that there are many weak-minded Dems (Is there any other type?) that will be shaking their heads in the affrimative and salivating at the thoughts expressed herein.
Almost -- she had to nudge Monica out of the way first.
Unfortunately, these people existed in enough of a concentration in the New York area to get the First Bitch elected to the Senate, but there are insufficient numbers in the country as a whole to give her anything more.
Regards, Ivan
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