Posted on 04/04/2002 5:55:45 PM PST by jraven
Analysis: US policy change carries risks
By Jon Leyne BBC Washington correspondent
Under intense pressure at home and abroad, President Bush has finally taken decisive action to intervene in the Middle East. This is a major change of policy that carries many risks for the President.
In his speech in the White House Rose Garden, Mr Bush began with the usual calls on Yasser Arafat to control terrorism.
"Terror must be stopped. No nation can negotiate with terrorists, for there is no way to make peace with those whose only goal is death."
But Mr Bush went on to demand for the first time that the Israeli Government should begin withdrawing its forces from the Palestinian cities recently occupied.
"I speak as a committed friend of Israel," he insisted. "I speak out of a concern for its long-term security, the security that will come with a genuine peace."
'Collision course' But the president went much further than just calling for a ceasefire. He outlined a vision of the future of the Middle East. That vision includes the most explicit calls to date for a viable Palestinian state and more pressure on the Israeli Government to stop settlement activity.
"Israel should also show a respect, a respect for and concern about the dignity of the Palestinian people who are and will be their neighbours," he urged. Those demands present a major challenge to the government of Ariel Sharon. They could set Israel and the United States on a collision course. Final warning to Arafat President Bush's speech also contained what look like ominous words for Yasser Arafat.
"As Israel steps back, responsible Palestinian leaders and Israel's Arab leaders must step forward... I expect better leadership and I expect results."
That will be read, in some quarters, as a final warning to the Palestinian leader.
The immediate question is whether that final warning will be delivered, in person, by Colin Powell next week.
Already the Israelis have announced that the US envoy, Anthony Zinni, is to be allowed to visit Mr Arafat.
But even if the Israelis are agreeable, the secretary of state would still have to explain why he can meet Mr Arafat when the vice-president ruled it out a couple of weeks ago.
Nevertheless, after days and weeks of internal battles within his administration, the president has finally laid out an ambitious new agenda for the Middle East, that answers many of his critics.
The challenge now is how much political capital he is willing to spend to achieve these goals.
It is an ambitious agenda that puts President Bush on a potential collision course both with the Israeli Government and with hardliners within his own administration.
Loyalty's a two-way street.
I would suggest Arafat get control (if he is not in control) and insure Al Qaida and Saddam are not in the melting pot with him or he will be lumped in with them as we continue our war against terrorism. If terrorism flames after peace efforts - all in the U.S. will realize there is no possibility of peace with terrorism at play.
The situation over there is so flamable and can lead to such disasterous ends that a measure of caution and one further try at peace is possibly warranted. If it doesn't work, the Israelis can continue and beat the socks off of them and take out Arafat.
I don't expect Bush to cave on terrorism in the least. Didn't you catch his anger at the use of a teenage girl as a bomb to kill another teenage girl? A father of two young daughters would be very sensitive to an act like that and I don't think tolerance of it is in the makeup of President Bush.
What we are ACTUALLY seeing the the beginning of the endgame.
The doves are being given their last shot at solving this. GWB is a fair enough leader to realize that he will not have the force of CONSENSUS at his disposal if he does not let the doves at least try one more time to clean up this mess.
If it fails, which i suspect it will, THEN you will hear from the hawks. In the meantime, Powells visit (i am no fan of Powell, but believe he is infinitely better than half-bright was) will allow everyone to cool it a bit. Miracles happen, perhaps it will even work...
THIS IS ALL IN CLEARLY IN ISLRAELS BEST INTEREST...
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