SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!

I agree with dalereed. Losing a California state-wide race will nix any hopes for higher office. If I recall correctly, no Dim has taken the White House without California's electoral votes in over a century.

You can contact his campaign from his web site.

Simon for Governor

I'm reminded of how former Rep. Dan Lungren, once considered presidential timber, was the favorite to succeed Pete Wilson in the 1998 election. As late as September, he lead Gray Doofus by six points. He even had 38% of the Hispanic vote. On election day, however, he wound up with 38% of the general vote and 19% of the Hispanic vote.

STEPHEN KINNEY, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES, POLLSTER SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

Hmmm, an in-house poll release, must be bad news coming down the pike from the "Independent" news outlets polling.

Lungren never generated the enthusiasm among the grass roots Republicans that Bill Simon has and a lot of Republicans stayed home in that election, still having a bad taste from having to put up with Pete Wilson.

Here's a formated version of the press release:

http://www.pos.org/html/simonpressrelease.htm

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: SAL RUSSO, RUSSO MARSH AND ROGERS, CHIEF STRATEGIST SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN STEPHEN KINNEY, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES, POLLSTER SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

RE: WHY BILL SIMON WON THE CALIFORNIA PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR

DATE: MARCH 5, 2002

Bill Simon’s stunning come-from-behind victory today is due to a host of reasons, including his own discipline and focus, but also the Riordan campaign and the Davis advertising. Below you will see our analysis of this race:

1. Bill Simon had a focused message that was compelling to primary voters.

Our strategy was to target primary voters. After Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Simon, and we put up ads, Simon started improving significantly on the ballot test, picking up momentum with undecided voters. The ballot test went from:

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

November ‘01 5% 43% 16% 36%

Jan 22-24, ‘02 18% 45% 13% 21%

The Davis ads (which started January 20) actually had little impact on Riordan’s ballot numbers. By early February, a public poll still found Riordan leading 41%-24% over Simon, with Jones down to 9%. Undecideds had gone back up to 26%. Most of Simon’s vote had come from Jones on the strength of the Giuliani ad AND the Simon Tax/Bio ad where Simon spoke directly to the voters.

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

Feb 2-14 ‘02 24% 41% 9% 26% (PPIC)

Thus, Giuliani provided the initial kick, and then, by connecting the endorsement with an economic message that GOP primary voters were focused on, Simon kept climbing. By the time Riordan started attacking, he had no credibility with the Republican primary voters, and he couldn’t stop a train which had already left the station. Simon’s negatives never broke into double digits during the tracking.

2. Dick Riordan never said anything that appealed to GOP primary voters.

Riordan began his advertising on January 8, and he never improved his image or his ballot numbers. In focus groups, GOP women said that he was just not believable. Voters also were far more interested in the state’s economy than they were in moral issues such as abortion and gay rights. . .which was the focus of Riordan’s message.

Another key element of Riordan’s message was “electability” – in other words, he was the best candidate to beat Gray Davis. Republican primary voters have never responded to the “electability” message. They want a candidate who focuses on the important issues and agrees with their views and values.

3. The real turning point came at the GOP state convention.

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

Feb 10-11 ‘02 24% 32% 11% 30%

Feb 17-18 ‘02 28% 33% 14% 22%

In our polling following the convention (which featured Riordan’s attack on Governor Deukejian and Simon’s straw poll victory and the resultant positive press), Riordan cratered to just a 32%-24% lead, with 11% for Jones and 30% undecided. Among key primary turnout groups, such as very conservative voters and high interest voters, Simon had already pulled ahead.

Simon went ahead for good two weeks later, but the trend was already a foregone conclusion.

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

Feb 24-26 ‘02 33% 31% 12% 23%

Feb 26-28 ‘02 34% 27% 12% 25%

4. The Davis advertising blitz did play an important part, but it wasn’t the starring role.

While the Davis attacks did NOT drop Riordan’s ballot numbers, nor drive up his unfavorables, they had two important impacts: (Davis attack started Jan 20 ‘02)

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

Jan 22-24, ‘02 18% 45% 13% 21%

Feb 4-14 ‘02 24% 41% 9% 26% (PPIC)

A. They caused voters to pay attention to the campaign so that, when Bill Simon started his charge, they knew that the campaign was underway.

B. They shook Riordan up personally and caused him to make numerous mistakes, such as talking about abortion at a time when voters were focused on the economy.

In our focus groups, primary voters told us they didn’t believe anything Gray Davis said, even about Richard Riordan. Gray Davis had an impact, although primarily by distracting Riordan from the true task of winning over GOP primary voters. From Riordan’s campaign themes, however, he was not ever on message from the start.

Summary Bill Simon won this primary because he had a coherent message that appealed to primary voters. Dick Riordan lost largely on his own, by attacking Republican icons and focusing on messages and issues that did not resonate. This election was not just the story of the flameout of Riordan, but also the strategy of the Simon campaign.

Simon Riordan Jones Undecided

Feb 27- Mar 01 ‘02 36% 25% 12% 26%

Mar 01-03 ‘02 37% 24% 13% 22%

Didn't Lungren make some tactical errors, similar to those made by so many other losers, where he decided he needed to "go a little bit liberal" in order to win?

I never could figure out why some candidates are so easily suckered by the press into believing this. A little bit of cancer is never good. Being somewhat of a liberal scumbag is never good.

Hmmm, an in-house poll release, must be bad news coming down the pike from the "Independent" news outlets polling.

LOFL !!!
I would believe this poll before I would believe any poll done by the scumbag Democrat press in California, lol.

This is wonderful news. Now sit back and watch Davis and his leftist cronies begin throwing the dirt. It's going to get pretty nasty.

Thanks for the ping! Great news!

Cheers, CC :)

After Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Simon, and we put up ads, Simon started improving significantly

If some really smart people can manage to do things right, a couple of strategic ads and a couple of campaign stops for Simon by George W. Bush could simply bury Davis.

Any candidate that listenes to the advice of the media on how to win as a Republican is doomed to failure.

You need to do just the opposite, cater to the conservatives who will all show up on election day and vote for you and the moderates (liberals) will vote for you rather than vote for the democrap when they go to vote.

Conservatives far outnumber the liberals in the Republican Party (except in the NE), I don't know why candidates try to appease them.

The local Republicans and County Committee don't have anything yet.

However, I went to Simon's webpage and signed up for email, so it's a start. Thanks!

You can also e-mail them your request, that's how I got my bumper stickers.

Their campaign staff is on the ball, at least before the primary.

I e-mailed them a request for a couple of bumper stickers and they arrived 2 days later in the mail.

Go, Billie Boy! To see Simon elected would sure make a dent in the democrazies strategy planning.

This is going to be one of those buckets of ice cold water that gets tossed into the face of KARL ROVE, Gerry Parsky, Brooks Firestone, and Michael Huffington to remind them that nobody believes in them.

I hope that the democrats don't pull one of their nasty tricks and place a bunch of hot button issues on the ballot in order to generate democrat turnout. They have pulled it in the past.

A bigger worry: Remember Sanchez vs. Bob Dornan.

Defective product. Serious cause of RINO rollovers. Major lawsuits.