Skip to comments.
SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!
e-mail
| 3/16/2002
| Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc
Posted on 03/16/2002 6:15:13 PM PST by dalereed
THE INSIDER: Political Information Network
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: March 16, 2002
SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!
48% - 41%
SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.
The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.
Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men
Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.
Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon
Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.
This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.
Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles
Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.
SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market
SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%
SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%
?
SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%
Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters
After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.
Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.
Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New
Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.
Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory
Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leaderships, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."
###
____________________________________ Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc
770 L Street, Suite 950
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 441-3734
TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: simon
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-60, 61-80, 81-100 ... 121-125 next last
To: esmith
I agree with dalereed. Losing a California state-wide race will nix any hopes for higher office. If I recall correctly, no Dim has taken the White House without California's electoral votes in over a century.
To: patriciaruth
62
posted on
03/16/2002 8:02:49 PM PST
by
dalereed
To: dalereed; AlGone2001; Dan from Michigan; dpwiener
I'm reminded of how former Rep. Dan Lungren, once considered presidential timber, was the favorite to succeed Pete Wilson in the 1998 election. As late as September, he lead Gray Doofus by six points. He even had 38% of the Hispanic vote. On election day, however, he wound up with 38% of the general vote and 19% of the Hispanic vote.
To: dalereed
STEPHEN KINNEY, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES, POLLSTER SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN Hmmm, an in-house poll release, must be bad news coming down the pike from the "Independent" news outlets polling.
To: Holden Magroin
Lungren never generated the enthusiasm among the grass roots Republicans that Bill Simon has and a lot of Republicans stayed home in that election, still having a bad taste from having to put up with Pete Wilson.
65
posted on
03/16/2002 8:08:13 PM PST
by
dalereed
To: Joaquin
Here's a formated version of the press release:
http://www.pos.org/html/simonpressrelease.htm
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: SAL RUSSO, RUSSO MARSH AND ROGERS, CHIEF STRATEGIST SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN STEPHEN KINNEY, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES, POLLSTER SIMON FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN
RE: WHY BILL SIMON WON THE CALIFORNIA PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR
DATE: MARCH 5, 2002
Bill Simons stunning come-from-behind victory today is due to a host of reasons, including his own discipline and focus, but also the Riordan campaign and the Davis advertising. Below you will see our analysis of this race:
1. Bill Simon had a focused message that was compelling to primary voters.
Our strategy was to target primary voters. After Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Simon, and we put up ads, Simon started improving significantly on the ballot test, picking up momentum with undecided voters. The ballot test went from:
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
November 01 5% 43% 16% 36%
Jan 22-24, 02 18% 45% 13% 21%
The Davis ads (which started January 20) actually had little impact on Riordans ballot numbers. By early February, a public poll still found Riordan leading 41%-24% over Simon, with Jones down to 9%. Undecideds had gone back up to 26%. Most of Simons vote had come from Jones on the strength of the Giuliani ad AND the Simon Tax/Bio ad where Simon spoke directly to the voters.
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
Feb 2-14 02 24% 41% 9% 26% (PPIC)
Thus, Giuliani provided the initial kick, and then, by connecting the endorsement with an economic message that GOP primary voters were focused on, Simon kept climbing. By the time Riordan started attacking, he had no credibility with the Republican primary voters, and he couldnt stop a train which had already left the station. Simons negatives never broke into double digits during the tracking.
2. Dick Riordan never said anything that appealed to GOP primary voters.
Riordan began his advertising on January 8, and he never improved his image or his ballot numbers. In focus groups, GOP women said that he was just not believable. Voters also were far more interested in the states economy than they were in moral issues such as abortion and gay rights. . .which was the focus of Riordans message.
Another key element of Riordans message was electability in other words, he was the best candidate to beat Gray Davis. Republican primary voters have never responded to the electability message. They want a candidate who focuses on the important issues and agrees with their views and values.
3. The real turning point came at the GOP state convention.
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
Feb 10-11 02 24% 32% 11% 30%
Feb 17-18 02 28% 33% 14% 22%
In our polling following the convention (which featured Riordans attack on Governor Deukejian and Simons straw poll victory and the resultant positive press), Riordan cratered to just a 32%-24% lead, with 11% for Jones and 30% undecided. Among key primary turnout groups, such as very conservative voters and high interest voters, Simon had already pulled ahead.
Simon went ahead for good two weeks later, but the trend was already a foregone conclusion.
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
Feb 24-26 02 33% 31% 12% 23%
Feb 26-28 02 34% 27% 12% 25%
4. The Davis advertising blitz did play an important part, but it wasnt the starring role.
While the Davis attacks did NOT drop Riordans ballot numbers, nor drive up his unfavorables, they had two important impacts: (Davis attack started Jan 20 02)
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
Jan 22-24, 02 18% 45% 13% 21%
Feb 4-14 02 24% 41% 9% 26% (PPIC)
A. They caused voters to pay attention to the campaign so that, when Bill Simon started his charge, they knew that the campaign was underway.
B. They shook Riordan up personally and caused him to make numerous mistakes, such as talking about abortion at a time when voters were focused on the economy.
In our focus groups, primary voters told us they didnt believe anything Gray Davis said, even about Richard Riordan. Gray Davis had an impact, although primarily by distracting Riordan from the true task of winning over GOP primary voters. From Riordans campaign themes, however, he was not ever on message from the start.
Summary Bill Simon won this primary because he had a coherent message that appealed to primary voters. Dick Riordan lost largely on his own, by attacking Republican icons and focusing on messages and issues that did not resonate. This election was not just the story of the flameout of Riordan, but also the strategy of the Simon campaign.
Simon Riordan Jones Undecided
Feb 27- Mar 01 02 36% 25% 12% 26%
Mar 01-03 02 37% 24% 13% 22%
66
posted on
03/16/2002 8:10:55 PM PST
by
Joaquin
To: Holden Magroin
Didn't Lungren make some tactical errors, similar to those made by so many other losers, where he decided he needed to "go a little bit liberal" in order to win?
I never could figure out why some candidates are so easily suckered by the press into believing this. A little bit of cancer is never good. Being somewhat of a liberal scumbag is never good.
To: Vis Numar
Hmmm, an in-house poll release, must be bad news coming down the pike from the "Independent" news outlets polling.LOFL !!!
I would believe this poll before I would believe any poll done by the scumbag Democrat press in California, lol.
To: dalereed
This is wonderful news. Now sit back and watch Davis and his leftist cronies begin throwing the dirt. It's going to get pretty nasty.
To: mtngrl@vrwc
Thanks for the ping! Great news!
Cheers, CC :)
To: Joaquin
After Rudy Giuliani campaigned with Simon, and we put up ads, Simon started improving significantlyIf some really smart people can manage to do things right, a couple of strategic ads and a couple of campaign stops for Simon by George W. Bush could simply bury Davis.
To: Lancey Howard
Any candidate that listenes to the advice of the media on how to win as a Republican is doomed to failure.
You need to do just the opposite, cater to the conservatives who will all show up on election day and vote for you and the moderates (liberals) will vote for you rather than vote for the democrap when they go to vote.
Conservatives far outnumber the liberals in the Republican Party (except in the NE), I don't know why candidates try to appease them.
72
posted on
03/16/2002 8:20:49 PM PST
by
dalereed
To: dalereed; Tree of Liberty
The local Republicans and County Committee don't have anything yet.
However, I went to Simon's webpage and signed up for email, so it's a start. Thanks!
To: patriciaruth
You can also e-mail them your request, that's how I got my bumper stickers.
74
posted on
03/16/2002 8:23:08 PM PST
by
dalereed
To: patriciaruth
Their campaign staff is on the ball, at least before the primary.
I e-mailed them a request for a couple of bumper stickers and they arrived 2 days later in the mail.
75
posted on
03/16/2002 8:25:09 PM PST
by
dalereed
To: dalereed
Go, Billie Boy! To see Simon elected would sure make a dent in the democrazies strategy planning.
To: Nick Danger
This is going to be one of those buckets of ice cold water that gets tossed into the face of KARL ROVE, Gerry Parsky, Brooks Firestone, and Michael Huffington to remind them that nobody believes in them.
Comment #78 Removed by Moderator
To: dalereed;Dan from Michigan
I hope that the democrats don't pull one of their nasty tricks and place a bunch of hot button issues on the ballot in order to generate democrat turnout. They have pulled it in the past.A bigger worry: Remember Sanchez vs. Bob Dornan.
To: William Creel
Defective product. Serious cause of RINO rollovers. Major lawsuits.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-60, 61-80, 81-100 ... 121-125 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson