Osama has left the building!
(((PING))))))
Tell me if you want OFF or ON my ping list - don't be shy. . .
I have an idea how this was all militarily executed in the first strike, and why it took almost a month to commence, and I may post it after a while.
Moreover, although some of the tribal leaders have been willing to switch allegiance at the drop of a hat, that isn't true of the real fanatics. They are still showing that they are willing to die for the cause.
I am more inclined to agree with your general evaluation. We have been assuming that Bush would want to produce Bin Laden's body, but as you say there may be advantages in having him simply disappear. If he is already dead, there are also advantages in not saying so until after the whole country has been mopped up. He is a useful bogie to placate weenie-whiny liberal newspersons with. In fact, although he did nothing about the problem, it was clinton who first made bin Laden infamous, demonizing him in the clintonoid media, as had earlier been done with Saddam. So Bush already had a liberal-certified liberal demon to deal with, and that made it awkward for the press to complain.
I thought Bush seemed cranky that day. He seemed all hopped up on anger, or impatience, or something. He was snapping at people, and could barely contain himself. Did anyone else notice that?
The bigger question is, what's up? What would put him in such a cranky mood?
Another case in point concerning the cultural disconnect: Why should the Taliban make deliberate targets of Western journalists? It makes no sense in light of the Vietnam experience. The only hope for the survival of the Taliban regime is to make it politically impossible for the US to prosecute the offensive. The just made it a heckuva lot easier on Bush by offing those journalists. It's gonna make it a lot harder for Geraldo to second-guess Bush strategy. Western journalists are a potential ally to be wooed, not dragged from a pickup truck and shot like some rabid dog.
i vaguely recall rumsfeld early on discussing a war of disinformation. i believed his intention was to tip off the press that this would be a two way street. given this, bush's comments and actions would not be inconsistent with the war tactics. (in fact, i happen to believe that some of the united states/israel banter that went on while the coalition was being put together was planned to mute or at least mitigate arab nation concerns.)
i happen to believe, however, that much of the arab world believed that the taliban and al-qaeda were separate, a fact that is turning out to be false. bush was trying, i think, to show that the two worked hand in hand -- hence the edict to the taliban to turn over usama -- and bush knew they would not.
even if the taliban had turned over usama, bush would have put pressure on the taliban to chase down the rest of his network. without taliban resistance, bombing is not necessary.
the american public will demand some specific evidence that we are succeeding in this war. usama would be a major milestone -- although as you have alluded, there is a risk that the war ends with him. i believe that we would have heard if he were killed. al-jazeera, if nobody else, would have found out and publicized it for the response it would have received.
good thoughts and nice compilation of a lot of data. even though i am skeptical of the conclusions drawn, i highly respect the work you did!
Follow along with this bit of twisted logic, the only way that we keep the Taliban and Al Queda forces fighting is for them to be alive. The local Afghanis will turn at the drop of a hat, however Osama's boys will not. Using sat intell and on the ground intell we have followed them around the country. We have observed their troop deployments and using a newly armed N.A. went after them. We used our air power to turn the locals as we did in Desert Storm ie they see us and can't surrender fast enough. We deplete their forces with a minimum of ground action taking place. We've been herding them into a central location making it easier for us to take out the guys that we're really after and pretty much insulating the populace from total warfare (see winning hearts and minds).
After only a couple of weeks we have the terrorists and their handlers in two places, Kunduz and Khandahar. Now we don't have to go into every nook and cranny looking for them. Meanwhile, the peaceniks, the bleeding hearts, and the Arabs can't go off the deep end screaming stop and build any momentum against the war.
You've now managed to put your opposition in a box, and can prosecute the war on your terms with little or no loss of political capital. When the time is right, you strike the fatal blow (we went after Omar yesterday, Osama can't be too far off). Take out the remaining terrorist forces, the remaining Taliban, and finally Osama. Game, set, and match in Afghanistan. Time to aquire the next target.
Osama was killed in the first 5 days of the bombing campaign, probably on the first night while night vision technology would still be of added significant value. The U.S. generally knew where Osama was located prior to 9-11, but honed down his local zone of occupation in the 26 days prior to the bombing. Satellites and Predator spy planes were collecting real-time data on the suspected locations of Osama to narrow down the exact location. The Pentagon analyzed the recon photos to narrow the range, then used the bee-hive theory of probable location and confirmation. You can find the most important bee in a hive by finding the vibrant, dense cluster of worker bees surrounding their leader. Even at night, the IR signatures and night vision of the mobile and settled terrorist wanna-bees would create a radiating pattern, with all individuals’ movement and positions generally pointing to Osama’s location.
By waiting 26 days before bombing, a relatively false sense of security would be created for the terrorists. They would have sufficient time, and more importantly, a level of comfort and confidence in them to find Osama and stay near him. The response by terrorist followers to search and find Osama did in effect reveal bin Laden’s detailed position. Weeks were needed to finally settle on bin Laden’s actual position. Prior to bombing, The CIA confirmed his position with Predator drone aircraft and personnel operatives on the ground.
In the first night-time bombing raids, Osama’s entire surrounding Active Zone was thoroughly destroyed all the way out to a miles-wide buffer zone of absolutely no human activity. Bunker busters and conventional bombs fell continually for hours in the Active Zone, laying a continuous encircling carpet of utter destruction from which nothing larger than bacteria could survive. During the bombing runs, heavy jamming of cell phone frequencies made all cell phones and other forms of radio communication used by the terrorists ineffective.
Although nighttime can reveal the positions of explosions, the flash of light lasts only a moment compared with the resulting smoke, which can be seen for 10s of miles and for hours afterwards. By morning, all dense smoke evidence of the night’s bombings were not visible for miles beyond the Active Zone and the encircling Perimeter Zone.
Afterwards, for days later, everything that was detected to be moving or radiating energy inside the Active Zone was surgically struck with Apaches. Satellites and drones transmitted IR photos to assure that any body heat signatures were cold within the Active Zone. To create the illusion that the Active Zone was not necessarily Osama’s location, strikes were conducted all over parts of Afghanistan as a diversion.
Early on October 11, Bush was notified that the energy gradient in the Active Zone was flat, meaning that no bodies were alive, and no forms of electronic radiation were detected. The carefully constructed press conference speech was drafted and delivered stating that the US would "halt air strikes" if the Taliban would hand over bin Laden.
These concentrated air strikes met all 5 objectives and the last 4 Strategies shown above, and intentionally leave bin Laden’s death forever in question. The Active Zone is still maintained under surveillance, and any activity heading toward the Active Zone is stopped. For security and deterrence, several other zones are maintained to mimic the Active Zone.
Osama has left the building!