[Steven W.]

I thought this was the desire some weeks back, too (to nail him and we'd just never find out, which is still possible) - however, my opinion changed in the last week or so. 1st because of the impressive fashion that we've waged this war it's now far better for us to nail 'em than not (whereas that was a different case than before, as you outline). At this point we should get 'em and that'll help weak-kneed coalition members gain some strength. Lastly, as far as him being dead at this point, I don't agree, because of the large number of witnesses around Jolalabad that had seen him in the prior week's time.

[HighWheeler]

I think the "witnesses" who have seen him may be a ruse. If he is deep in the mountains as thought, word of his whereabouts would be slow to make it to the rest of the world.

He is an obvious person, and if there were actually sitings of him, he would also be seen by U.S. operatives and seen by other technological means.

I think the first 26 days were spent narrowing down his previously vaguely known position. I think the saturation bombing in the first days took him out.

[white_wolf]

I was struck by the Bush Press Conference in October (the one where the Presidential podium was at the head of the long hallway in the White House) in which he seemed supremely happy and confident. I remarked to my wife at the time that he looked and sounded like a man who had just won a big victory. I wondered at the time if we hadn't gotten bin Laden then.

However, mitigating against this is the lack of rumours about it. If we had gotten him, somebody within the terrorist ranks or the Taliban either knows or suspects it. They would have no incentive to keep quiet it about it.

So, you may be right, there is evidence for and against your theorem.

[white rose]

I don't agree, because of the large number of witnesses around Jolalabad that had seen him in the prior week's time.

But remember that it's been reported that bin Laden has at least 10 "doubles." These sightings could have been of any one of those guys, done to throw everyone off the trail.

I've been thinking along the lines of HighWheeler's argument for some time now. The fact that it's also been reported that we want DNA samples from bin Laden's female relations, to enable us to positively identify any remains we might find, also leads me to suspect this theory is correct. It tends to imply that we already have these remains, and want to make sure we didn't just blast one of his ringers to hell.