2002 Senate Elections - 34 Elections Tabulated

11-21-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

34 Senators will be up for election in 2002

It's time to start planning strategy.

Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:

- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.

There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.

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No.	State	Incumbent Senator	SenatorParty	Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party)	2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore)	The State Governor's party & next election year	State's Other Senator and party
1	Alabama	Jeff Sessions	Rep		14.91%
2	Alaska	Ted Stevens	Rep		30.95%
3	Arkansas	Tim Hutchinson	Rep		5.45%
4	Colorado	Wayne Allard	Rep		8.36%
5	Delaware	Joseph Biden	Dem		-13.06%
6	Georgia	Max Cleland	Dem	Yes	11.67%	Dem 02	Zell Miller (D)
7	Idaho	Larry Craig	Rep		39.53%
8	Illinois	Richard Durbin	Dem		-12.02%
9	Iowa	Tom Harkin	Dem	Close	-0.32%	Dem 02	Chuck Grassley (R)
10	Kansas	Pat Roberts	Rep		20.80%
11	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	Rep		15.13%
12	Louisiana	Mary Landrieu	Dem	Yes	7.43%	Rep 03	John Breaux (D)
13	Maine	Susan Collins	Rep	Yes	- 5.12%	Indep 02	Olympia Snowe (R)
14	Massachusetts	John Kerry	Dem		-27.30%
15	Michigan	Carl Levin	Dem		-5.14%
16	Minnesota	Paul Wellstone	Dem	Close	-2.41%	Indep 02	Mark Dayton (D)
17	Mississippi	Thad Cochran	Rep		16.92%
18	Missouri	Jean Carnahan	Dem	Yes	3.34%	Dem 04	Christopher Bond (R)
19	Montana	Max Baucus	Dem	Yes	25.08%	Rep 04	Conrad Burns (R)
20	Nebraska	Chuck Hagel	Rep		29.00%
21	New Hampshire	Bob Smith	Rep	Close	1.27%	Dem 02	Judd Greg (R)
22	New Jersey	Robert Torricelli	Dem		-15.84%
23	New Mexico	Pete Domenici	Rep	Yes	- .06%	Rep 02	Jeff Bingamen (D)
24	North Carolina	Jesse Helms	Rep		12.83%
25	Oklahoma	James Inhofe	Rep		21.88%
26	Oregon	Gordon Smith	Rep	Yes	- 0.44%	Dem 02	Ron Wyden (D)
27	Rhode Island	Jack Reed	Dem		-29.08%
28	South Carolina	Strom Thurmond	Rep		15.94%
29	South Dakota	Tim Johnson	Dem	Yes	22.74%	Rep 02	Tom Daschole (D)
30	Tennessee	Fred Thompson	Rep	Close	3.87%	Rep 02	William Frist (R)
31	Texas	Phil Gramm	Rep		21.32%
32	Virginia	John Warner	Rep		8.03%
33	West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller	Dem	Yes	6.33%	Dem 04	Robert Byrd (D)

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Last Updated on 11/21/01
By HighWheeler

[poet]

Doesn't that also apply to anyone "married" to a particular party? Many on this forum believe just because a repub gets elected, then everything will be all right. Not true. No diff between the parties IMO.

[VA Advogado]

Rockerfella and Dominici are far from likely to lose their seats.

[VA Advogado]

Unlike us junkies, regular people in the street are incredibly stupid (they think Dems stand for the "little guy," that the GOP only represents the rich, etc), and with the Leftist media drumming that into their empty heads non-stop, you begin to get the picture.

Its scary such people exist in our neighborhoods :)

[HighWheeler]

You need to sharpen your information to see some of the most obvious differences. One so big that anyone can see it is the Clintoon scandals vs. any Repub scandal. And remember, not everyone is a saint, but the reaction to a failure is what counts.

Clinton rapes women, lies under oath, has sex in the Oval Office, subborns perjury, etc, etc, etc. and all the Democrats come to his aid and give him cover.

Ted Kennedy kills a woman, makes waitress sandwiches at restaurants, etc, etc, etc, and all the DemocRATS come to his aid to cover him.

Nixon tries a cover up with Watergate and the most vocal people who convince him to resign? The Republicans. Nixon voluntarily resigns.

That Repub who was Speaker of the House for 5 minutes, has an affair and resigns.

Republicans clean house. DemocRATS embrace all deviants, criminals, liars and lowlifes and bring them into their RAThole.

[kayak]

Helms has definitely announced that he will not seek re-election. Liddy Dole has thrown her hat in the ring .... and is the only Republican with any statewide name recognition. Don't know who will be running against her. Erskine Bowles was not going to run against Helms but is apparently re-considering. Yikes!

Dole was born and raised in NC but has not lived here since her college days. The carpetbagger charge is already being thrown around .... and there is a lot of concern among conservatives about her stands on abortion and gun control.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Susan Collins isn't vulnerable for one reason-- John Baldacci isn't running against her because he wants to be Governor. The Dems want that Governorship next year and will spend most of their money and time to get it. King can't run again, so the Dems just have to stay focused. Collins isn't conservative enough to be considered out of step with Maine voters. Here are Bush's 2000 percentages for New England. Note where Maine ranks:

• New Hampshire, 48.07%

• Maine, 43.97%

• Vermont, 40.7%

• Connecticut, 38.44%

• New York, 35.23%

• Massachusetts, 32.5%

• Rhode Island, 31.91%

New Hampshire gave its electoral votes to Bush and the nearest non-electoral-vote-giver is Maine. This is a true indictation of where Mainers are ideologically. They aren't as liberal as the 30-percenters. The Bush's even have a home in Kennebunkport. As long as Bush doesn't embarass them while they harbor the Presidential Family, they aren't going to hold Susan's connection with Bush against her. In fact, Bush could easily campaign with her next year and it wouldn't hurt her. He couldn't do that in Massachusetts or Rhode Island for a candidate there.

[GraniteStateConservative]

New Hampshire is a Republican state. We have problems with soccer moms, so the GOP candidate has to be a smooth talker to win. A Republican will win back the governorship next year and Shaheen would lose big to Sununu, but Smith doesn't talk smooth at all and will be beat up on like Shaheen did last year to Gordon Humphries. Humphries was a former U. S. Senator for goodness sake and was handled without much trouble by Shaheen because she knew how to play her cards against him.

Sununu looks like a nice guy and acts like one-- sort of the like the other nice guy that the state supported for President last year. Shaheen will paint Smith as a throw-grandma-in-the-street Republican and will beat him. New Hampshire voters would laugh at such a characterization of Sununu so she'd have to run on issues and there she'd lose big.

Sununu is very conservative, is pro-ANWR-drilling and knows how to work the cameras and the crowds. Smith looks like a grumpy old man to NH voters.