Posted on 11/21/2001 3:11:17 PM PST by HighWheeler
It's time to start planning strategy.
Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:
- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.
There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.
No. | State | Incumbent Senator | SenatorParty | Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party) | 2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore) | The State Governor's party & next election year | State's Other Senator and party |
1 | Alabama | Jeff Sessions | Rep | 14.91% | |||
2 | Alaska | Ted Stevens | Rep | 30.95% | |||
3 | Arkansas | Tim Hutchinson | Rep | 5.45% | |||
4 | Colorado | Wayne Allard | Rep | 8.36% | |||
5 | Delaware | Joseph Biden | Dem | -13.06% | |||
6 | Georgia | Max Cleland | Dem | Yes | 11.67% | Dem 02 | Zell Miller (D) |
7 | Idaho | Larry Craig | Rep | 39.53% | |||
8 | Illinois | Richard Durbin | Dem | -12.02% | |||
9 | Iowa | Tom Harkin | Dem | Close | -0.32% | Dem 02 | Chuck Grassley (R) |
10 | Kansas | Pat Roberts | Rep | 20.80% | |||
11 | Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | Rep | 15.13% | |||
12 | Louisiana | Mary Landrieu | Dem | Yes | 7.43% | Rep 03 | John Breaux (D) |
13 | Maine | Susan Collins | Rep | Yes | - 5.12% | Indep 02 | Olympia Snowe (R) |
14 | Massachusetts | John Kerry | Dem | -27.30% | |||
15 | Michigan | Carl Levin | Dem | -5.14% | |||
16 | Minnesota | Paul Wellstone | Dem | Close | -2.41% | Indep 02 | Mark Dayton (D) |
17 | Mississippi | Thad Cochran | Rep | 16.92% | |||
18 | Missouri | Jean Carnahan | Dem | Yes | 3.34% | Dem 04 | Christopher Bond (R) |
19 | Montana | Max Baucus | Dem | Yes | 25.08% | Rep 04 | Conrad Burns (R) |
20 | Nebraska | Chuck Hagel | Rep | 29.00% | |||
21 | New Hampshire | Bob Smith | Rep | Close | 1.27% | Dem 02 | Judd Greg (R) |
22 | New Jersey | Robert Torricelli | Dem | -15.84% | |||
23 | New Mexico | Pete Domenici | Rep | Yes | - .06% | Rep 02 | Jeff Bingamen (D) |
24 | North Carolina | Jesse Helms | Rep | 12.83% | |||
25 | Oklahoma | James Inhofe | Rep | 21.88% | |||
26 | Oregon | Gordon Smith | Rep | Yes | - 0.44% | Dem 02 | Ron Wyden (D) |
27 | Rhode Island | Jack Reed | Dem | -29.08% | |||
28 | South Carolina | Strom Thurmond | Rep | 15.94% | |||
29 | South Dakota | Tim Johnson | Dem | Yes | 22.74% | Rep 02 | Tom Daschole (D) |
30 | Tennessee | Fred Thompson | Rep | Close | 3.87% | Rep 02 | William Frist (R) |
31 | Texas | Phil Gramm | Rep | 21.32% | |||
32 | Virginia | John Warner | Rep | 8.03% | |||
33 | West Virginia | Jay Rockefeller | Dem | Yes | 6.33% | Dem 04 | Robert Byrd (D) |
LH - From Mass, NY, NJ to name the top 3
Maine still has the best welfare system thanks to Anus King and company, last election voters passed all the reforemdem questions which without a major tax increase, makes the State insolvent... and we are already the #1 taxed state.
Congressman John Thune...a very attractive candidate indeed.
Regards...EV
Smith is vulnerable, but I read where Sununu (R) is significantly ahead of both Smith and the likely DemonRAT challenger.
I have no idea about Collins.
He has been THE stalwart for our principles---many times the only one with the guts to stand all the way for the GOP platform...(THE statement of the principles of the grassroots activists).
John Sununu, Jr. may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but it was BOB SMITH STANDING ALONE with the Gonzalez family at the gates of the airbase where the Dem kidnappers were holding their present for their fellow communist Fidel.
FReepers love to rail on cynical, self-serving politicians whose only concerns are poll numbers and campaign $$, as they should. But then some of y'all, when you have one who doesn't play that game, are ready to abandon him, (based on biased polling done early by Dem activist pollsters who are hot to destroy the most conservative member of the US Senate---paid for by RINOs who also hate conservatives).
No wonder RINOs think conservatives are a joke.
Or maybe some of you aren't as conservative as you would like the rest of us to think.
As for me, I will support the champion for the right of unborn babes to live, and of our Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms, Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire.
The Republican Party in Iowa is fired up and ready to WORK. Watch this one, it should be fun!
Additionally, Smith is a terrible speaker. Sununu (father and son) are very bright (maybe too intelligent, it makes them very blunt) and articulate. Sununu is certainly conservative, and we need some new, younger conservatives to combat the growing number of young Democrats all over TV.
I hope he wins.
The Repub candidate will also become emboldened knowing he is backed by vocal supporters who are also running interference against his opponent.
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