2002 Senate Elections - 34 Elections Tabulated

11-21-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

34 Senators will be up for election in 2002

It's time to start planning strategy.

Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:

- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.

There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.

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No.	State	Incumbent Senator	SenatorParty	Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party)	2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore)	The State Governor's party & next election year	State's Other Senator and party
1	Alabama	Jeff Sessions	Rep		14.91%
2	Alaska	Ted Stevens	Rep		30.95%
3	Arkansas	Tim Hutchinson	Rep		5.45%
4	Colorado	Wayne Allard	Rep		8.36%
5	Delaware	Joseph Biden	Dem		-13.06%
6	Georgia	Max Cleland	Dem	Yes	11.67%	Dem 02	Zell Miller (D)
7	Idaho	Larry Craig	Rep		39.53%
8	Illinois	Richard Durbin	Dem		-12.02%
9	Iowa	Tom Harkin	Dem	Close	-0.32%	Dem 02	Chuck Grassley (R)
10	Kansas	Pat Roberts	Rep		20.80%
11	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	Rep		15.13%
12	Louisiana	Mary Landrieu	Dem	Yes	7.43%	Rep 03	John Breaux (D)
13	Maine	Susan Collins	Rep	Yes	- 5.12%	Indep 02	Olympia Snowe (R)
14	Massachusetts	John Kerry	Dem		-27.30%
15	Michigan	Carl Levin	Dem		-5.14%
16	Minnesota	Paul Wellstone	Dem	Close	-2.41%	Indep 02	Mark Dayton (D)
17	Mississippi	Thad Cochran	Rep		16.92%
18	Missouri	Jean Carnahan	Dem	Yes	3.34%	Dem 04	Christopher Bond (R)
19	Montana	Max Baucus	Dem	Yes	25.08%	Rep 04	Conrad Burns (R)
20	Nebraska	Chuck Hagel	Rep		29.00%
21	New Hampshire	Bob Smith	Rep	Close	1.27%	Dem 02	Judd Greg (R)
22	New Jersey	Robert Torricelli	Dem		-15.84%
23	New Mexico	Pete Domenici	Rep	Yes	- .06%	Rep 02	Jeff Bingamen (D)
24	North Carolina	Jesse Helms	Rep		12.83%
25	Oklahoma	James Inhofe	Rep		21.88%
26	Oregon	Gordon Smith	Rep	Yes	- 0.44%	Dem 02	Ron Wyden (D)
27	Rhode Island	Jack Reed	Dem		-29.08%
28	South Carolina	Strom Thurmond	Rep		15.94%
29	South Dakota	Tim Johnson	Dem	Yes	22.74%	Rep 02	Tom Daschole (D)
30	Tennessee	Fred Thompson	Rep	Close	3.87%	Rep 02	William Frist (R)
31	Texas	Phil Gramm	Rep		21.32%
32	Virginia	John Warner	Rep		8.03%
33	West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller	Dem	Yes	6.33%	Dem 04	Robert Byrd (D)

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Last Updated on 11/21/01
By HighWheeler

[EternalVigilance]

The name is Bill SALIER....as in suh-leer...

Bill is an ex-Marine, a farmer, a Christian, strongly pro-life...a wonderful constitutionalist gentleman.

He is also fantastic on the stump. I have seen crowds all over Iowa respond enthusiastically to Mr. Salier...I hope and pray he wins. He is exactly the type of candidate you need to take out the socialist warrior Tom Harkin, who is a take-no-prisoners type of campaigner.

Iowa Republicans have been trying to defeat Harkin with moderate Congressmen since the 1970's, to no avail...Greg Ganske is another of that stripe (he voted with Clinton about half the time).

Go Bill Go!!

[EternalVigilance]

In spite of his conservative opinions on social issues, that puts him in the Jeffords category.

I respectfully, but totally, disagree.

Jeffords left because he is a flaming liberal who was tired of being in a (supposedly) conservative party.

Smith left briefly because he was sick of Republican Senators who claimed to be conservative to the rank and file out in the country, but who constantly and repeatedly abandoned the platform at every turn. He was also looking for a platform to expose the fact that pollsters and consultants were and are practically running the show in Washington. (He found it briefly).

Smith's speech on the floor of the Senate that day was the cold, hard, raw truth...one of the gutsiest speeches ever given anywhere.

Unfortunately, Bob quickly learned that nobody was listening, and frankly, nobody gives a damn. So he humbly faced this fact, and returned to the place where he could do the most good.

Hardly the acts of a Jeffords.

[SmartBlonde]

I agree. And, I think there is a similar problem in other parts of the country. I think many, many people are troubled by some of the questionable ethics/morals of the libs, but the fact is that the libs provide the financial 'security net'. That has become ingrained in the country since the Depression, through WWII, etc. Also, the whole agriculture subsidy situation is totally out of control. Frankly, I'm glad I don't have to come up with a solution.

[SmartBlonde]

I know, but they were not family friends. Additionally, there is quite a time lag until he would need to campaign next year. While I know it isn't popular to say this (I've been flamed a LOT about what I'm going to re-state), neither Schundler nor Earley were good candidates. Schundler has a great future, but he should have had higher office than Mayor before running for Governor. He also was probably one election cycle too soon. Earley was just a bad candidate. Warner ran as a conservative - if you listened to him rather than read his bio - you would think he was a moderate or even semi-Conservative Republican. I don't think Bush wanted to waste political capital on them. He is giving support in the Houston Mayor's race.

[~EagleNebula~]

Additionally, Smith is a terrible speaker. Sununu (father and son) are very bright (maybe too intelligent, it makes them very blunt) and articulate. Sununu is certainly conservative, and we need some new, younger conservatives to combat the growing number of young Democrats all over TV.

So you would rather have someone who "sounds" good in office, than someone who is a decent conservative and sticks to his guns? You would rather have someone riding in on Dad's coat tails and name recognition, than someone being voted for because of their truly conservative stand? NOT ME!!

Smith is the man, unless you are planning to sacrifice something.

[poet]

Hmm, they think we are the sheep

[Lancey Howard]

...(I've been flamed a LOT about what I'm going to re-state), neither Schundler nor Earley were good candidates.

You deserve flaming - - Schundler was a great candidate. The sad fact is, New Jersey is a lost cause - - the place is down the liberal toilet forever. New Jersey has way too many teachers, parasites, and other cowards who just love to vote for more and more big government confiscation of their neighbor's money in order that they may get "free stuff". New Jersey is a veritable laboratory for the cowardly selfishness of liberalism. Don't go anywhere near the place. Schundler never had a chance.

[SmartBlonde]

I didn't say I wanted a Lib with good speaking ability. Sununu is a CONSERVATIVE with good speaking ability. In a choice between two Conservatives, I want to go with the one who can effectively communicate and win people to our side.

[SmartBlonde]

Re-read my post. I think Schundler is a MARVELOUS Conservative and I agree with him on nearly every issue. I said he was not the right candidate AT THIS TIME. He needs to hold a state-wide office or some appointed office where the people of NJ will get a chance to know him. I know a lot of wonderful conservative people in NJ - maybe not as conservative as I would like - but certainly not Dems or liberals. Schundler is really nice looking and obviously very smart. He needs more exposure - THEN he will be a good candidate. Some of the best Conservatives going lost their first big election - but they came through BIG TIME the next time.

[HighWheeler]

Well we know that the liberals vote like sheep, they will vote for anything with a (D) next to it, as long as they get a handout in return. Their urge to vote (D) is so strongly ingrained in them when they are alive, that they even vote (D) when they are dead.

[Libertarian_4_eva]

Some people I know vote for Republicans for President, yet vote Democrat for everything else

You need to work and make shure that ticket splitters do not split their votes. They are mostly those who are the least educated on issues and more likely to become party members.

[Tijeras_Slim]

I don't think that Pete Domenici will lose in NM. He doesn't raise the ire of the Dems here, and brings home the bacon for the National Labs and Military Bases. Finally, there is no challenger big enough to get decent traction. That seat will be at risk when he retires (probably after this next term)

[HighWheeler]

I agree with you it is not a big risk for the Repubs, I think the biggest risk of a Repub lising their seat is in Maine. As someone pointed out earlier, Maine is becoming liberal, and so Repubs may have their backs to the wall.

[nonliberal]

In Iowa, Bill Salier can knock off Harkin. The RINO Ganske cannot.

[karth]

Thats the interesting thing: Here in New Jersey, Gore won by 13% and both senators are Democrats; a Democrat just won the governorship by a landslide 14%. We also have the highest per capita income and the highest per capita benefit from the Bush tax cuts.

Meanwhile, voters in places like the Dakotas and the South have low per capita incomes, low per capita benefit from the Bush tax cuts and high per capita benefit from all kinds of federal spending. Logically, they should oppose cuts in federal spending as anathema to their interests and hardly be concerned about tax cuts. But these are the states that voted most lopsidedly for Bush.

So, theres no rational, ideological logic to the way people have voted. I think Clinton inspired a lot of anti-Democrat voting over the last decade but even before Clinton, these were REpublican states.

[tbg681]

You forgot one: "The Torch" may be vulnerable in the Peoples Republic of New Jersey. Torricelli has "ethics" issues and our wonderful new governor-elect, McFlorio, is already setting up a massive tax increase that could hurt him (like it almost knocked off Bradley back in '90). See, here in Moscow on the Hudson, the proletariat -- and totally annoying minivan driving soccer moms -- love government handouts (but don't wanna pay for them). This scenario could help the good guys pick up the seat...but only if former 2 term governor Tom Kean runs. I know, I know: Kean is a text book RINO, but this IS New Jersey!!!

[HighWheeler]

Komrade! Sorry to hear you live in a communist controlled state. I just can't believe that your komrades in NJ don't consider tax cuts as a desireable goal. This is truly a case of gross ignorance by the voters.

[tbg681]

Yeah, I know. Jersey is a NEA controlled, traffic ridden, totally corrupt tax hell!! The only thing that keeps me here is family obligations. I swear, I drive (that's when I not stuck traffic of course) past these magnificent public school tax paradises, complete with late model minivans and fat assed soccer moms, and I just wanna drop a friggin' DAISY CUTTER on the whole thing!! (Just kidding...somewhat)

[tbg681]

Oh, and while I'm on a rant, here's what I also hate about New Jersey: Bruce Springsteen, Jersey tomatoes, outrageous auto insurance rates, Bruce Springsteen, scummy Trenton (and Camden, and Newark), third rate Atlantic City casinos, Bruce Springsteen, Gore winning the state by 13 points, RINOS!!!, The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial page, Bruce Springsteen, Marxist school teachers making $65,000 a year, Jon Bon Jovi (who looks just like Bridget Fonda), crooked courts...and judges...and on-the-take "public officials", governor-elect Jim McFlorio, and Bruce Springsteen (did I mention him before?).

[bimbo]

The polls in St. Louis will again be kept open after hours if that is needed for a DEM victory. Although technically against the law, NO ONE WAS PUNISHED IN 2000, making it de facto legal.

Here in Maryland, the DEMs in Baltimore prefer to withold the ballots until it is known for certain how many are needed for a DEM victory, and then to deliver that amount - again, de facto legal.