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2002 Senate Elections - 34 Elections Tabulated
11-21-01
| HighWheeler
Posted on 11/21/2001 3:11:17 PM PST by HighWheeler
34 Senators will be up for election in 2002
It's time to start planning strategy.
Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:
- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.
There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.
No. |
State |
Incumbent Senator |
SenatorParty |
Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party) |
2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore) |
The State Governor's party & next election year |
State's Other Senator and party |
1 |
Alabama |
Jeff Sessions |
Rep |
|
14.91% |
|
|
2 |
Alaska |
Ted Stevens |
Rep |
|
30.95% |
|
|
3 |
Arkansas |
Tim Hutchinson |
Rep |
|
5.45% |
|
|
4 |
Colorado |
Wayne Allard |
Rep |
|
8.36% |
|
|
5 |
Delaware |
Joseph Biden |
Dem |
|
-13.06% |
|
|
6 |
Georgia |
Max Cleland |
Dem |
Yes |
11.67% |
Dem 02 |
Zell Miller (D) |
7 |
Idaho |
Larry Craig |
Rep |
|
39.53% |
|
|
8 |
Illinois |
Richard Durbin |
Dem |
|
-12.02% |
|
|
9 |
Iowa |
Tom Harkin |
Dem |
Close |
-0.32% |
Dem 02 |
Chuck Grassley (R) |
10 |
Kansas |
Pat Roberts |
Rep |
|
20.80% |
|
|
11 |
Kentucky |
Mitch McConnell |
Rep |
|
15.13% |
|
|
12 |
Louisiana |
Mary Landrieu |
Dem |
Yes |
7.43% |
Rep 03 |
John Breaux (D) |
13 |
Maine |
Susan Collins |
Rep |
Yes |
- 5.12% |
Indep 02 |
Olympia Snowe (R) |
14 |
Massachusetts |
John Kerry |
Dem |
|
-27.30% |
|
|
15 |
Michigan |
Carl Levin |
Dem |
|
-5.14% |
|
|
16 |
Minnesota |
Paul Wellstone |
Dem |
Close |
-2.41% |
Indep 02 |
Mark Dayton (D) |
17 |
Mississippi |
Thad Cochran |
Rep |
|
16.92% |
|
|
18 |
Missouri |
Jean Carnahan |
Dem |
Yes |
3.34% |
Dem 04 |
Christopher Bond (R) |
19 |
Montana |
Max Baucus |
Dem |
Yes |
25.08% |
Rep 04 |
Conrad Burns (R) |
20 |
Nebraska |
Chuck Hagel |
Rep |
|
29.00% |
|
|
21 |
New Hampshire |
Bob Smith |
Rep |
Close |
1.27% |
Dem 02 |
Judd Greg (R) |
22 |
New Jersey |
Robert Torricelli |
Dem |
|
-15.84% |
|
|
23 |
New Mexico |
Pete Domenici |
Rep |
Yes |
- .06% |
Rep 02 |
Jeff Bingamen (D) |
24 |
North Carolina |
Jesse Helms |
Rep |
|
12.83% |
|
|
25 |
Oklahoma |
James Inhofe |
Rep |
|
21.88% |
|
|
26 |
Oregon |
Gordon Smith |
Rep |
Yes |
- 0.44% |
Dem 02 |
Ron Wyden (D) |
27 |
Rhode Island |
Jack Reed |
Dem |
|
-29.08% |
|
|
28 |
South Carolina |
Strom Thurmond |
Rep |
|
15.94% |
|
|
29 |
South Dakota |
Tim Johnson |
Dem |
Yes |
22.74% |
Rep 02 |
Tom Daschole (D) |
30 |
Tennessee |
Fred Thompson |
Rep |
Close |
3.87% |
Rep 02 |
William Frist (R) |
31 |
Texas |
Phil Gramm |
Rep |
|
21.32% |
|
|
32 |
Virginia |
John Warner |
Rep |
|
8.03% |
|
|
33 |
West Virginia |
Jay Rockefeller |
Dem |
Yes |
6.33% |
Dem 04 |
Robert Byrd (D) |
Last Updated on 11/21/01
By HighWheeler
TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2002senateelection
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: Iowa Granny
The name is Bill SALIER....as in suh-leer...
Bill is an ex-Marine, a farmer, a Christian, strongly pro-life...a wonderful constitutionalist gentleman.
He is also fantastic on the stump. I have seen crowds all over Iowa respond enthusiastically to Mr. Salier...I hope and pray he wins. He is exactly the type of candidate you need to take out the socialist warrior Tom Harkin, who is a take-no-prisoners type of campaigner.
Iowa Republicans have been trying to defeat Harkin with moderate Congressmen since the 1970's, to no avail...Greg Ganske is another of that stripe (he voted with Clinton about half the time).
Go Bill Go!!
To: SmartBlonde
In spite of his conservative opinions on social issues, that puts him in the Jeffords category. I respectfully, but totally, disagree.
Jeffords left because he is a flaming liberal who was tired of being in a (supposedly) conservative party.
Smith left briefly because he was sick of Republican Senators who claimed to be conservative to the rank and file out in the country, but who constantly and repeatedly abandoned the platform at every turn. He was also looking for a platform to expose the fact that pollsters and consultants were and are practically running the show in Washington. (He found it briefly).
Smith's speech on the floor of the Senate that day was the cold, hard, raw truth...one of the gutsiest speeches ever given anywhere.
Unfortunately, Bob quickly learned that nobody was listening, and frankly, nobody gives a damn. So he humbly faced this fact, and returned to the place where he could do the most good.
Hardly the acts of a Jeffords.
To: HighWheeler
I agree. And, I think there is a similar problem in other parts of the country. I think many, many people are troubled by some of the questionable ethics/morals of the libs, but the fact is that the libs provide the financial 'security net'. That has become ingrained in the country since the Depression, through WWII, etc. Also, the whole agriculture subsidy situation is totally out of control. Frankly, I'm glad I don't have to come up with a solution.
To: HighWheeler
I know, but they were not family friends. Additionally, there is quite a time lag until he would need to campaign next year. While I know it isn't popular to say this (I've been flamed a LOT about what I'm going to re-state), neither Schundler nor Earley were good candidates. Schundler has a great future, but he should have had higher office than Mayor before running for Governor. He also was probably one election cycle too soon. Earley was just a bad candidate. Warner ran as a conservative - if you listened to him rather than read his bio - you would think he was a moderate or even semi-Conservative Republican. I don't think Bush wanted to waste political capital on them. He is giving support in the Houston Mayor's race.
To: SmartBlonde
Additionally, Smith is a terrible speaker. Sununu (father and son) are very bright (maybe too intelligent, it makes them very blunt) and articulate. Sununu is certainly conservative, and we need some new, younger conservatives to combat the growing number of young Democrats all over TV. So you would rather have someone who "sounds" good in office, than someone who is a decent conservative and sticks to his guns? You would rather have someone riding in on Dad's coat tails and name recognition, than someone being voted for because of their truly conservative stand? NOT ME!!
Smith is the man, unless you are planning to sacrifice something.
To: HighWheeler
Hmm, they think we are the sheep
46
posted on
11/21/2001 8:43:05 PM PST
by
poet
To: SmartBlonde
...(I've been flamed a LOT about what I'm going to re-state), neither Schundler nor Earley were good candidates.You deserve flaming - - Schundler was a great candidate. The sad fact is, New Jersey is a lost cause - - the place is down the liberal toilet forever. New Jersey has way too many teachers, parasites, and other cowards who just love to vote for more and more big government confiscation of their neighbor's money in order that they may get "free stuff". New Jersey is a veritable laboratory for the cowardly selfishness of liberalism. Don't go anywhere near the place. Schundler never had a chance.
To: ~EagleNebula~
I didn't say I wanted a Lib with good speaking ability. Sununu is a CONSERVATIVE with good speaking ability. In a choice between two Conservatives, I want to go with the one who can effectively communicate and win people to our side.
To: Lancey Howard
Re-read my post. I think Schundler is a MARVELOUS Conservative and I agree with him on nearly every issue. I said he was not the right candidate AT THIS TIME. He needs to hold a state-wide office or some appointed office where the people of NJ will get a chance to know him. I know a lot of wonderful conservative people in NJ - maybe not as conservative as I would like - but certainly not Dems or liberals. Schundler is really nice looking and obviously very smart. He needs more exposure - THEN he will be a good candidate. Some of the best Conservatives going lost their first big election - but they came through BIG TIME the next time.
To: poet
Well we know that the liberals vote like sheep, they will vote for anything with a (D) next to it, as long as they get a handout in return. Their urge to vote (D) is so strongly ingrained in them when they are alive, that they even vote (D) when they are dead.
To: Malcolm
Some people I know vote for Republicans for President, yet vote Democrat for everything else
You need to work and make shure that ticket splitters do not split their votes. They are mostly those who are the least educated on issues and more likely to become party members.
To: HighWheeler
I don't think that Pete Domenici will lose in NM. He doesn't raise the ire of the Dems here, and brings home the bacon for the National Labs and Military Bases. Finally, there is no challenger big enough to get decent traction. That seat will be at risk when he retires (probably after this next term)
To: Tijeras_Slim
I agree with you it is not a big risk for the Repubs, I think the biggest risk of a Repub lising their seat is in Maine. As someone pointed out earlier, Maine is becoming liberal, and so Repubs may have their backs to the wall.
To: HighWheeler
In Iowa, Bill Salier can knock off Harkin. The RINO Ganske cannot.
To: SmartBlonde
Thats the interesting thing: Here in New Jersey, Gore won by 13% and both senators are Democrats; a Democrat just won the governorship by a landslide 14%. We also have the highest per capita income and the highest per capita benefit from the Bush tax cuts.
Meanwhile, voters in places like the Dakotas and the South have low per capita incomes, low per capita benefit from the Bush tax cuts and high per capita benefit from all kinds of federal spending. Logically, they should oppose cuts in federal spending as anathema to their interests and hardly be concerned about tax cuts. But these are the states that voted most lopsidedly for Bush.
So, theres no rational, ideological logic to the way people have voted. I think Clinton inspired a lot of anti-Democrat voting over the last decade but even before Clinton, these were REpublican states.
55
posted on
11/22/2001 5:32:59 AM PST
by
karth
To: HighWheeler
You forgot one: "The Torch" may be vulnerable in the Peoples Republic of New Jersey. Torricelli has "ethics" issues and our wonderful new governor-elect, McFlorio, is already setting up a massive tax increase that could hurt him (like it almost knocked off Bradley back in '90). See, here in Moscow on the Hudson, the proletariat -- and totally annoying minivan driving soccer moms -- love government handouts (but don't wanna pay for them). This scenario could help the good guys pick up the seat...but only if former 2 term governor Tom Kean runs. I know, I know: Kean is a text book RINO, but this IS New Jersey!!!
56
posted on
11/22/2001 5:47:02 AM PST
by
tbg681
To: tbg681
Komrade! Sorry to hear you live in a communist controlled state. I just can't believe that your komrades in NJ don't consider tax cuts as a desireable goal. This is truly a case of gross ignorance by the voters.
To: HighWheeler
Yeah, I know. Jersey is a NEA controlled, traffic ridden, totally corrupt tax hell!! The only thing that keeps me here is family obligations. I swear, I drive (that's when I not stuck traffic of course) past these magnificent public school tax paradises, complete with late model minivans and fat assed soccer moms, and I just wanna drop a friggin' DAISY CUTTER on the whole thing!! (Just kidding...somewhat)
58
posted on
11/22/2001 6:16:50 AM PST
by
tbg681
To: HighWheeler
Oh, and while I'm on a rant, here's what I also hate about New Jersey: Bruce Springsteen, Jersey tomatoes, outrageous auto insurance rates, Bruce Springsteen, scummy Trenton (and Camden, and Newark), third rate Atlantic City casinos, Bruce Springsteen, Gore winning the state by 13 points, RINOS!!!, The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial page, Bruce Springsteen, Marxist school teachers making $65,000 a year, Jon Bon Jovi (who looks just like Bridget Fonda), crooked courts...and judges...and on-the-take "public officials", governor-elect Jim McFlorio, and Bruce Springsteen (did I mention him before?).
59
posted on
11/22/2001 6:32:00 AM PST
by
tbg681
To: freethinkingman
The polls in St. Louis will again be kept open after hours if that is needed for a DEM victory. Although technically against the law, NO ONE WAS PUNISHED IN 2000, making it
de facto legal.
Here in Maryland, the DEMs in Baltimore prefer to withold the ballots until it is known for certain how many are needed for a DEM victory, and then to deliver that amount - again, de facto legal.
60
posted on
11/22/2001 7:04:53 AM PST
by
bimbo
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