James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton in Texas Get Boost—Poll

Newsweek ^ | Jun 09, 2026 | Andrew Stanton

[nickcarraway]

Democratic state Representative James Talarico holds a 3‑point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the latest poll of Texas's U.S. Senate race released Tuesday.

Despite Texas’s reputation as a reliably Republican state, Democrats are hopeful about their chances of flipping the seat in November due to a favorable national environment fueled by President Donald Trump’s negative approval rating, political baggage carried by Paxton and reversion among Hispanic voters who trended toward the GOP in 2024.

Even as polls show a potentially competitive race, Texas is viewed as an uphill challenge for Democrats, but the new poll released Tuesday by Reconnaissance Market Research and the Siena Research Institute is welcome news for Talarico about his current standing against Paxton.

Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns via email for comment.

[Sarah Barracuda]

I remember Ted Cruz supposedly being down 3 points in the polls and he won by 12, not even close

[al_c]

We’ll see on Election Day.

[FLT-bird]

Yeah.....not buying it.

At all.

[escapefromboston]

Ken will win by 10 points.

[nickcarraway]

Didn’t he beat O’Rourke by less than 1%?

[fwdude]

Newsweak. What can you expect?

[FreeperCell]

Got to set the stage.

[CatOwner]

MSM: Harris has the lead in Iowa, 47-44% (Nov 2, 2024).

Reality: Harris loses Iowa 55.7-42.5% to Trump on Election Day 2024.

[adorno]

Newsweek needs to travel into the future, and them come back and report on the September/October polls.

Newsweek is trying to make things happen for democrats, but democrats have a way of leading the biased polls way before the polls actually count.

[Skwor]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Delusional

[Governor Dinwiddie]

Well President Trump isn't helping with his shilly-shally handling of Iran. Trump's a contractor—sub out Iran to Bibi. He knows what to do.

[CatOwner]

Didn’t he beat O’Rourke by less than 1%?

3%. The DEMs put nearly every dollar they could into that race, and native Texans almost gave the election to Beto.

[aquila48]

Newsweak...

[Fledermaus]

2.6%

[Texas_Jarhead]

~2.5 points

[MeanWestTexan]

Sienna Polling is the NYT’s near-captive polling organization. It is always left biased.

[Baladas]

poll is garbage - too many women, too many college graduates

https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/TXPLV-Crosstabs-1.pdf

[youngidiot]

The cheaters are emboldened by the fiasco in California. That’s why the polls always skew democrat. Because they account for the cheat.

[alloysteel]

Push poll. These people are running on hopium, a most delightful form of high optimism based on living entirely within an echo chamber environment. Of course, there is the big letdown on the other side of the contest, as the hopium disappears in the twilight.