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Posted on 03/14/2026 6:50:05 PM PDT by RandFan
Stew, a 35-year-old from Montana, has enjoyed dabbling in sports bets since he downloaded the Kalshi app about 18 months ago.
But just a few weeks ago, after spotting reports of elevated pizza deliveries around the Pentagon during some late-night scrolling, he made a different kind of bet - wagering $10 (£7.50) on the odds that Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "out" by 1 March.
It was a trade that tested the limits of the kinds of bets Americans are allowed to make.
So-called predictions markets - overseen by firms such as Kalshi - have exploded in popularity over the last year, hosting more than $44bn in trades.
They are rapidly transforming the betting landscape in the US, where sports betting was largely illegal until 2018 and gambling on elections had been off-limits for years until 2024.
While much of the activity on the platforms revolves around sporting matches, users can speculate on any number of questions, including local elections, whether the US central bank will cut interest rates and the year of Jesus Christ's return.
The apps caught fire during America's 2024 presidential campaign, after a legal victory cleared the way for them to accept election bets and they showed the odds tilting toward Donald Trump.
But it is more grisly wagers tied to military action involving Iran, Venezuela and Israel that have drawn attention lately.
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...
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OK, but how much did he win?
.
I thank my Lord that I have never had the predilection to gamble - anything beyond a buck for a NCAA bracket or a turkey raffle just doesn’t appeal to me. Some people will gamble on most anything, and that’s OK, as long as they are not gambling with tomorrow’s meal money.
Sounds like free speech to me.
the time is not up yet.
currently there is only 20% odds of the war wrapping up by April 1.
I’m not a betting man but, I don’t think this will be a forever war because the Iranian population is largely on the side of the USA and they are now providing detailed targeting of the IRGC. There are several major innovations in this war. one of them is to use AI to vastly acclerate the OODA loop.
The USA and Israel will be able to take down the IRGC in detail.
By april 1 they’ll either all be dead or they will have taken off their uniforms and retired to blend with the population.
I looked it up. Prediction markets like Polymarket currently show a very low probability—roughly 2% to 4%—for the return of Jesus Christ before 2027. Scott Adams logically concluded Jesus was still a better bet than 100% dead.
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