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Posted on 01/13/2026 12:55:52 PM PST by nickcarraway
California is once again at the center of a high-stakes debate over taxes, population trends and the future of the state’s economy, as a prominent tech investor warns that a new wave of residents could leave within the next year. The warning lands at a moment when official data shows modest population growth returning, even as moving companies and demographers track persistent outflows to other states. The question is not whether people are leaving, but whether policy choices in the coming months will turn a steady trickle into the kind of large-scale relocation that reshapes communities and tax bases.
The most pointed alarm has come from Allison Huynh, a managing partner at Alo Ventures and a veteran of Democratic fundraising circles, who has predicted that California could see what she calls a “mass migration” of residents within the next 12 months. In a recent interview, Allison Hyunh, who has raised money for both Obama and Biden, argued that a combination of rising taxes and quality-of-life concerns is pushing high earners and founders to accelerate plans to leave California, rather than wait to see how the political debate plays out. Her comments reflect a growing unease among investors who see the state’s policy trajectory as increasingly hostile to capital formation and long-term business planning.
Huynh’s critique is not abstract, it is rooted in the behavior of the very people she works with. As a managing partner at Alo Ventures and a former Obama and Biden fundraiser, she has framed the risk as a bipartisan economic problem rather than a purely partisan talking point, warning that the next year could bring a sharper break between those who stay and those who quietly move their families and companies elsewhere. In a separate appearance, the same Allison Hyunh prediction was echoed in coverage that highlighted her view that California’s political leaders are underestimating how quickly mobile wealth can respond to new tax proposals.
Tax hikes, billionaire angst and the new wealth calculus
At the center of Huynh’s concern is a fresh push to raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy, a move that has reignited a long-running argument over how far California can lean on its richest residents without driving them away. A new proposal targeting billionaires has sharpened that debate, with critics warning that the latest plan to tax the ultra rich could have a “real economic impact” on investment decisions, hiring and the broader innovation ecosystem. Those critics argue that layering a new levy on top of already high income and capital gains taxes risks tipping the balance for founders and investors who can easily relocate to states with no income tax.
The backlash is especially intense among tech and finance leaders who see themselves as already carrying a disproportionate share of the state’s budget. Reporting on the billionaire tax push has noted that critics include prominent Silicon Valley and Wall Street figures who fear that the measure would accelerate an ongoing exodus of high earners. One detailed analysis of the proposal underscored how California billionaire taxes are already a flashpoint, with critics warning that the latest idea could push more ultra wealthy residents to shift their legal domicile and investment activity elsewhere.
Signals from U-Haul: where Californians are actually going
While political arguments rage, moving trucks offer a more concrete measure of behavior, and the latest data from U-Haul suggests that more people are still leaving California than arriving. A recent report based on the company’s one way rentals found that California ranked near the bottom of states by net inbound moves, indicating that outbound traffic continues to dominate. The company’s own description of its Haul Growth Index stresses that, while rankings may not correlate directly to population or economic growth, the index is an effective gauge of how states are attracting and maintaining residents, and on that measure California is clearly struggling.
Drilling down into the numbers, U-Haul’s analysis of one way moves shows California leading the United States in net out migration for six consecutive years, a streak that underscores how persistent the trend has become. The report ranks states based on their net gain or loss of one way moving transactions, and California has consistently appeared among the states with the highest out migration, while destinations in the southern portion of the country have climbed the rankings. One summary of the data noted that California leads the nation in one way moves out, while another highlighted how the report ranks states by net gain or loss, with low cost markets often appealing to those customers.
Population data: growth on paper, churn on the ground
Official statistics complicate the simple narrative of an emptying state, showing that California’s population has actually grown for three consecutive years after the sharp pandemic era losses. Recent state level figures indicate that California’s population is approaching its pre pandemic level, helped by births and international migration that offset domestic departures. In fact, one detailed breakdown noted that the state would have grown even more if not for the number of people exiting California, a reminder that the headline growth masks a significant churn beneath the surface.
State demographers have been unusually candid about the risks ahead, warning that the next few years could still bring deeper losses if current trends continue. A report on the latest numbers pointed out that the state had an increase of only 0.03 percent, and that most international humanitarian migration counted in the data had already occurred, hinting at more losses to come in the next fiscal year as those one time boosts fade. In that context, the warning that officials warn the next few years could be worse sits uncomfortably alongside the modest growth, suggesting that the underlying outflow problem has not been solved.
Elite departures and the symbolism of tech leaving
Beyond aggregate numbers, the choices of a few high profile billionaires have become a potent symbol of California’s shifting fortunes. Public filings reviewed in recent coverage show that an entity tied to Google co founder Larry Page and Oracle founder Larry Ellison has moved its primary address to Florida, a state that has aggressively courted tech and finance wealth with low taxes and lighter regulation. Those moves follow earlier decisions by Oracle to relocate its headquarters and by other tech leaders to establish residency in states like Texas, reinforcing the perception that California’s most successful entrepreneurs are voting with their feet.
The pattern extends beyond a single company or founder, touching some of the most recognizable names in Silicon Valley. One report noted that, separately, an entity tied to both Brin and Page moved out of California at the end of 2025, underscoring how even the architects of the modern internet are rethinking their ties to the state that nurtured their companies. Another account of the trend highlighted how a Google co-founder and Brin and Page linked entity shifted away from California just as the billionaire tax debate intensified, a timing that critics see as evidence that policy choices are accelerating the departure of top tier wealth.
How much weight to give the ‘mass migration’ scenario
When I weigh these strands together, I see a state caught between two realities: a still dynamic economy that continues to attract people from abroad, and a domestic outflow that is increasingly concentrated among higher earners and mobile professionals. The U-Haul Growth Index, which the company describes as an effective gauge of how states are attracting and maintaining residents, shows California losing ground even as official population counts inch upward. One summary of that index emphasized that, while rankings may not correlate directly to population or economic growth, the pattern of more people moving away from California than moving in is hard to ignore, especially when it has persisted for multiple years.
At the same time, I am cautious about treating any single forecast of “mass migration” as destiny. The state’s recent population growth, however modest, shows that California still has powerful draws, from its universities to its role as the American tech hub. Yet the combination of a new billionaire tax push, visible elite departures and a moving truck index that consistently flags net outflows suggests that the risk Allison Huynh describes is not hypothetical. Her warning that an Expert predicts a sharp escalation in departures within the next year may or may not be borne out in the numbers, but it captures a mood among investors and founders that California’s margin for policy error is shrinking fast.
For now, the most honest assessment is that the state is in a fragile equilibrium. Modest overall growth, documented out migration and intensifying tax debates can coexist for a while, but not indefinitely. Whether California tips toward renewed confidence or a more dramatic relocation wave will depend on choices made in Sacramento in the coming months, and on how many residents decide that the trade offs of staying still make sense in a country where a one way truck and a new driver’s license can reset their tax and lifestyle equation almost overnight. In that sense, the latest Haul Growth Index, the modest uptick in California population and the ongoing movers relocated trends are all early signals of which way that balance may break.
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Locusts?
The uniparty Democrats/marxists in Government will just re-fill with illegals, and then some.
And Fed.gov will pay for it with lots of debt, printed money, and your taxes.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
Commiefornia is already 80 percent illegal honestly who’d notice the difference
The Red areas in California are where nobody lives (or comparatively few). California’s population is concentrated on the coast, so this chart of Presidential Results by County is misleading at best.
That has GOT to be a map of widespread fraud in 2020, other than the hopeless liberal areas.
That has GOT to be a map of widespread fraud in 2020, other than the hopeless liberal areas.
Oklahoma is closed. We’re full and hate kalifornians.
Oklahoma is closed. We’re full and hate kalifornians.
Maybe they are the descendents of the Okies, returning home.
Once again.... It is not who votes that counts; what matters is WHO counts the votes.
I would say “Would the last Kalifornian to leave please turn out the lights” but the lights will be out long before that.
California has had net domestic OUTmigration for over 30 years now. This isn’t news.
The 2 things which have kept California’s population growing during that time are:
1. Natural increase (births outnumbering deaths); certain types of illegals tend to reproduce like rabbits.
2. IMmigration, both legal and otherwise (”otherwise” == mostly from Asia).
Within the boundaries of the U.S., people have been voting with their feet and LEAVING California in greater numbers than moving TO California, since at least the mid 1990s.
Doesn’t seem to bring up the gas crisis about to hit the state.
Beyond refineries shutting down (bad), environmental regulations have caused the shut down of hundreds of gas stations in the state. Because their fuel mix is so weird, they will be importing gasoline from India and South Korea. A gallon of gas will be over $10 by the middle of next year.
I’d be moving out if I lived there. There is nothing worthwhile that you can only get in California.
This is like a horror movie. California creates a population that is equal parts liberal zealot, entitled, narcissistic and, in many cases, lazy and looking for a handout. Then it collapses and the population infests other states like some zombie apocalypse.
So now we have people who raised money for Obama & Biden moving to our states to crap them up. I wish there was a way to force democrats to stay in California. They crapped in their bed, they need to roll around in it.
I need a vomit emoji
Turn Vermont solid Red
It is important that the census count every head but also provides a count of USA citizens for each state. Congressional districts should be based upon the count of citizens only. The individual states can then be told to manage their non-citizen populations as they see fit.
Sane people would not appreciate the mass emigration to their states of politically diseased citizens...
Call for the containment experts to prevent the spread of the disease to healthy states...
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