Posted on 08/22/2025 3:19:35 AM PDT by where's_the_Outrage?
I am generally bullish about Democrats’ chances of retaking the House majority in 2026. That’s because the history of midterm elections is pretty overwhelming when it comes to seat losses for the president’s party.
When a president is unpopular in polls—as Donald Trump is today—those losses are even steeper. And yet, I don’t think a Democratic-controlled House is in the bag just yet.
Why?
Well, for much of the past year, I have been hearing from smart Democratic strategists who insist that their party has fallen badly behind Republicans in one of the critical nuts and bolts needed for winning elections: Registering voters.
And now the New York Times has exposed that problem — in a massive (and massively important) piece published this week. Here’s the key bit:
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.
It gets worse. In all four swing states that register voters by party—Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—Democratic registration eroded between 2020 and 2024. That year, for the first time since 2018, more voters registered as Republicans than Democrats; in 2018, two-thirds of new voters under the age of 45 were registering as Democrats, while in 2024, more than half of new voters under 45 registered as Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Exactly.
The poll was taken in the basement of the DNC.
THAT is the bottom line.
"unpopular in polls—as Donald Trump is today"
Precisely.
And Trump will be taking actions to squeeze more cheat out of the system, which will hurt Dems badly.
They're polling just old geezer women. The pathetic ones you see with the "No Kings" signs standing by the half dozen down at the park screaming at passing cars.
The ones with the "Hate Has No Home Here" signs on their front yards. They REALLY hate him.
Trump will be at 54 Factual and redistricting will do the rest.
Amy questions?
Not just women.
In our area NPR is about the only radio news source.
I know several geezer guy who are terrified of Trump and of all things, MAGA, due to the lies they hear and believe.
So Trump is unpopular in polls? Really? This guy needs to get outside of his blue bubble once in a while for a reality check.
“Generally bullish about Democrats chances”
“Donald Trump has low poll numbers.” Except Donald Trump is 3X higher than any other portion of Government, and almost that for Democrats. He is strongly more favorable that everybody else.
“Sitting Presidents lose seats”. Absolutely. Especially when the opposition has an “I told you so”. Right now the Democrats only agenda is to say and do the opposite of Trump, which has increased their loathing index to about 80%.
“Concerned about voter registration”. Concerned? Democrats have lost millions of voters (scam voters, illegal alien voters, illegal votes from ghosts on voter rolls) and now a new generation of registration- paid for by Democrats- are going Red. Concerned shouldn’t be the issue….Panicked would be more accurate.
Motivation? How motivated are the blue voters now?
I see about half, of the 81 million votes Joe Biden received in 2020 available for democrat midterms……. And I see about the same as Trump got last two for the Republicans. People in blue areas, the cities, aren’t going to see it coming…..
Dems lost ground in every single state between 2020 and 2024 elections — often by a lot.
<><>That four-year swing toward Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters,
<><>Dems have a deep political hole that could take years to climb out from.
<><>even worse, look at all four swing states that register voters by party—Az, Nev, N/C and Pa—
<><>Dem registration eroded between 2020 and 2024.
<><>for the first time since 2018, more voters registered Repub than Dem;
<><>in 2018, 2/3 of new voters under the age of registered as Dem,
<><>while in 2024, more than half of new voters under 45 registered as Republicans.
Re: "What the heck is this idiot talking about?!"
Probably this...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Trump - Last 13 National Job Approval Polls - Average
Approve: 45.8%
Disapprove: 50.9%
Out of 13 polls, Trump reached 50% or higher Approval in just one poll.
Stop reading after that
He believes the dems will do well in the 2026 midterms. But he bases his optimism strictly on historical trends.
But the current history is very different from prior midterm situations. All of the following are reasons for optimism about the ‘26 midterms:
1. Trump is not as unpopular as the author would like to believe.
2. Redistricting WILL favor the republicans. We have 5 new districts with more on the way.
3. As he said, Rep registrations are up. And consider, people do not register for one party just to go out and vote for the other party.
4. Trump’s census recount will eliminate many (most?) illegal aliens from the voter rolls. This could shift districts from blue states to red, adding to no. 2 above.
5. The Supreme Court may disallow the voting rights act as a basis for gerrymandering, causing some blue states to redraw more fairly.
6. USAID as a money-laundering scheme for democrats has been eliminated. This is why DNC funds are so low, right now. Plus, wealthy donors were really upset with how Kamala’s campaign squandered $2 billion, so they are reluctant to donate.
7. I believe many republicans will run on the theme of “do you want the dems to win the house just to have 2 years of impeachment hearings?”
All the above are favorable for the republicans running for congress. What is not favorable is Trump is not on the ticket. Republican “get out the vote” efforts must be strong. And no talk of an “inevitable red wave”.
Yeah i bet karmala wished those polls for her were accurate lol
I am optimistic about GOP chances this year. For mid term elections, party approval, the economy and other salient issues, and candidate and campaign specific factors tend to matter more than Presidential approval. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is improving due to recent successes, while the intensity of Democrat sentiment seems to be falling off due to exhaustion. And I expect a series of bombshell revelations and indictments to knock the Democrats further off their game.
“When a president is unpopular in polls—as Donald Trump is today...”
Not the polls I’ve seen.
I believe historical trends will not apply this mid-term. The author ignores that a majority of people have noticed just how bat sh*t crazy the Democrats have become, which why they are polling so badly.
Their only hope is massive voter fraud and I think it is going to be much, much tougher to do again what they have been doing for decades. Trump knows and is not afraid to use the power we have given him.
That is particularly the case since SCOTUS ruled states not only must not gerrymander to favor majority minority districts, they MAY NOT do so. For example, Louisiana used to be 5-1 Republican in the US House. Then the courts ruled they had to create 2 majority Black districts so of course, the state's US House delegation became 4-2 Republican. Well now they are perfectly free to get rid of at least one of those majority Black districts in which case their house delegation is likely to go back to being 5-1 Republican.
Now multiply that across every Southern state. That alone would cost Democrats several US House seats.
What's that you say? Blue states will just retaliate and gerrymander to the extreme to favor Democrats? They've already done that. Trump got 43% of the vote in Illinois but Republicans only hold 18% of US House seats there. Trump got 38% in California but Republicans only hold 18% of US House seats there. He got 36% in Massachusetts but Republicans hold 0% of US House seats there. Republicans hold 0 of the 21 US House seats in all of New England. How are they going to Gerrymander harder than that? They can't.
“unpopular in polls—as Donald Trump is today”
That is pure B/S. The only people he is unpopular with ,have purple hair ,boobs and a dick. They can’t take that his policy’s
are working and restoring America to Greatness! By the time Vance’s 2 terms are done ,the American people will be on top the world.
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