Posted on 07/25/2025 8:33:35 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Can Republicans expand their House majority in the midterms by redistricting in red states? Donald Trump wants them to try. Republicans in Texas have already started a mid-cycle redistricting in the Lone Star state, hoping to create enough change to capture as many as five new House seats without directly challenging Democrat incumbents.
Trump wants other red states to join the effort, and he's making progress:
At Trump’s urging, Texas Republicans are looking to redraw congressional maps to favor GOP candidates during a 30-day special legislative session that started this week. Trump has said he wants to carve out five new winnable GOP seats.
But Trump officials are now going beyond just Texas, looking to redraw lines in other states such as Missouri, according to a person familiar with conversations but unauthorized to speak publicly about them. ...
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley said Thursday that he has not yet spoken to any Republicans in his state about redistricting but that it’s up to the Missouri legislature and governor to make the call.
“I’d love to have more Republicans,” Hawley said.
Well, who wouldn't? Democrats, of course. They have pushed back against this effort as an illegitimate manipulation of elections, and they plan to fight these redistricting plans in court. Courts these days are more inclined to let legislatures operate in this space, at least to a larger degree than in years past, so that strategy may not bear much fruit.
So now Democrats threaten to beat the GOP at their own game:
Earlier this month, Jeffries’ team spoke with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office about redistricting after the news in Texas, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Drawing new congressional lines now could run afoul of the state constitution and undoubtedly draw legal challenges — but it doesn’t appear to be off the table.
“What I’m going to say is, all is fair in love and war,” Hochul said Thursday, adding that she’s “going to see what our options are.”
Democrats have total control in fewer states, but those tend to be the most populous: New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland, mainly. That offers Democrats a chance to put the squeeze on more seats -- at least theoretically.
In practice, though, Democrats may have already beaten themselves. Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick reminds readers that most blue states forced redistricting into the hands of supposedly non-partisan commissions, which means the fight could be over in the redistricting war before Democrats can even take the field:
Democrats are desperate to push back against President Donald Trump’s brazen attempt to shift the House map in the GOP’s favor. Republicans are trying to muscle through new maps in Texas, Ohio and Missouri, with more red states potentially on deck.
But the two parties aren’t on a level playing field. Over the years, blue states have repeatedly ceded their redistricting authority to commissions. Red states haven’t.
That doesn’t mean that Democrats can’t fight back in the states they control, but it makes the process vastly more complicated. For the most part, Republican governors just have to call their legislatures into special sessions and pass new maps. By comparison, Democrats have to change their state constitutions.
The only states without these obstacles on the blue map are Maryland, Oregon, and Illinois. In most of these states, including California, Colorado, and New Jersey, changes to the state constitution would have to go to voters first. New York actually tried this in 2022 and got shot down in court over their absurdly gerrymandered map. None of these efforts would finish up in time to help out in 2026, with the possible exception of New Jersey, which has a regularly scheduled general election this November. But to get an amendment on the ballot, the legislature has to propose it at least 90 days ahead of that election for voters to review -- and that deadline is coming up in less than two weeks. Chop chop.
The New York Times sees another problem for Democrats -- they've already gone as far as they can go in states where they can fight back:
States where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democratic seats out of those states would be a challenge.
The NYT also has a rather rosy view of Democrats' efforts to put these decisions in the hands of bureaucrats in the other states:
While Democrats have their share of aggressive gerrymanders, blue states have led in embracing reforms to insulate redistricting from politics, such as creating an independent or bipartisan commission to agree on new maps.
Such actions — done in the name of good governance and often with significant support from voters — are now leaving Democrats in a bind.
Nonsense. Democrats did this when they achieved full control in states, knowing that they would control membership of these commissions and ensure their commitment to the status quo. Redistricting should be a partisan process conducted by elected officials with accountability back to the voters, and that's what Democrats attempted to short-circuit in these states. Now they want to convert back to the proper model after seeing the competitive disadvantage of dereliction of duty, but they don't have the time to react to it.
Finally, though, the biggest problem for Democrats is time in a different context. The states they want to redistrict are bleeding voters to red states over economic and cultural differences. Even if they successfully squeeze a half-dozen seats or a dozen seats through these efforts for the 2026 election -- and I doubt they'd outdo the GOP -- they will lose that much or more in 2032 after the next census. The migration to red states will shift House apportionments significantly, which makes this effort nothing much more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Blue-state Democrats should copy red-state policies on economics and tax burdens if they want to compete with the GOP.
Until Democrats recognize the true underlying problem, all they have are deck chairs and a sinking ship, and far too few lifeboats to keep the USS Democrat above the waves.
Lol. When have Republicans ever won a battle like that? Even with a huge advantage.
What makes you think the Democrats are any better? The Republicans have changed while the Democrats have regressed.
I don’t think you understood what I said. What I said has to do with effectiveness. Democrats are very good at making things go there own way. Republicans are not very effective.
Yes, the Republicans now believe in unlimited spending and big government. Democrats have gone further to the left, and Republics have occupied the space the Democrats left. Socially, Republicans are farther left than Democrats were in 2010.
When have they ever even joined such a battle? For decades they’ve been like boxers playing by Marquis of Queensbury rules, while the other side embeds razor blades in their gloves, employs kidney pinches and kicks to the groin while the media referee eggs them on
From the jaws of victory, only GOP can snatch defeat 100%.
Dems can’t compete with that track record.
bkmk
Its so cute hearing commies scream about redistricting and how it will help Republicans meanwhile Dems bring in MILLIONS of illegals for the sore purpose of getting congressional seats, without illegals they would lose 30 seats, so they should really STFU
Whine, laugh, cry with glee, and smile from ear to ear Surrender Monkeys. Tell yourself the Republicans can’t win this fight because you say so; but you are wrong wrong wrong once again.
Fractal the system that can detect a fraudulent address in real time and solved the problem of rodents cheating where it was used, will end the rodents cheating again as it did last November.
By now Jay Valentine and his team have probably finished loading the real-estate tax records (which is the basis of Fractal) of every state in its system. The rodents will not be able to cheat with fake voters in fake buildings that don’t exist.
Enjoy your weekend Surrender Monkeys because things will only get worse for you in the coming week.
Texas, more often than not, in the last 30 years.
So only Democrats can gerrymander states. Republicans can’t do any gerrymandering. Connecticut CD-1 (the Hartford area) looks as if it is eating CD-5 (the Waterbury/Litchfield Hills area) and CD-2 (Eastern Connecticut) has a few blue cities to keep it from being at least tilt red.
Newsom is already threatening to retaliate in California by redistricting to create more Dem seats. Currently, Dems hold a 43-9 advantage. That’s almost a 5 to 1 ratio, so obviously they’ve already done a lot of gerrymandering and there’s not much left for them to squeeze out. Go for it, Texas!!
It’s hard to put the effort into sausage making but it’s important. It’s Trump that’s going us the backbone.
Yup—both CT and MA have 100% Democrats in Congress.
They already stole every seat there was—nothing left to take.
Connecticut may not be a Republican state, but I think it could be a purple state. Eastern Connecticut is mostly Republican and so is northwestern part. Even some cities are (New Britain has a Republican mayor). Of course, Connecticut Democrats are ‘moderate’ but some progressive Dems are starting to fight the moderate Dems (some leftist who makes Bernie look like President Trump) is primarying Ned LaMont because LaMont is not a liberal.
I grew up in Connecticut, and ran for state rep in 1996. Even when Connecticut had a competitive Republican Party, it was squishy RINO. So Ford would beat Carter, largely because Carter was seen as a Southern Baptist Hick. Jerry Brown beat Clinton in the ‘92 primary for similar reasons (Southern White Trash).
Discounting Weicker as an extreme version of this, even the other Republicans were temperamentally Mitt Romney types (minus the Mormonism). Guys like Ron Sarasin and Larry DeNardis could get elected, but they would go along to get along.
Fairfield County was always the fountainhead of white-shoe Republicans in the state. Too much influence from NYC.
You are right about the eastern part of the state, which had been historically working class Dems (Electric Boat, Mills). The casinos changed the dynamic a bit, but they are culturally more conservative. But even in the liberal New Haven area, there are towns that have culturally conservative pockets, largely due to ethnic backgrounds. The Italians in East Haven, the Polish in Wallingford. There are also conservatives in Cheshire, which has money.
The ethos these days in Connecticut is hard left, and you can feel it in the air. It is disheartening. Joe Markley is a good man. I am sorry he didn’t get the Lt. Gov. spot.
I am from Connecticut. But sometimes I tell people I was born and raised on Krypton, but my home blew up.
Texas could move all the Californians who moved to Texas into a Democrat district...
“Democrats are very good at making things go there own way. Republicans are not very effective.”
Yes, democrats were very effective in electing Harris over Trump. Democrats were also effective in winning both the house and senate in 2024. And democrats were so effective when Trump beat Harris in Texas by 24 points. That’s a democrat friggin’ landslide, right?
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