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U.N. Quietly Lowers Population Forecasts
RealClearPolitics ^ | 6/24/25 | Bill King

Posted on 06/24/2025 10:25:18 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970

U.N. Quietly Lowers Population Forecasts

ANALYSIS

By Bill King - RCP ContributorJune 24, 2025 U.N. Quietly Lowers Population ForecastsAP For decades, we’ve been told that the world’s biggest problem is too many people. From Malthus in the 18th century to “The Population Bomb” in the 1960s, the warnings were dire: More people would mean more famine, more poverty, more environmental destruction. But something unexpected has happened. The demographic math has changed. And the United Nations, the world’s most cited authority on population forecasts, has taken notice.

Until recently, their models predicted that the global population would continue to grow throughout the 21st century, reaching a peak of nearly 11 billion by the year 2100. But in its 2022 and 2024 revisions, the U.N. quietly lowered its global population projections. The most recent estimate puts the peak at just 10.3 billion, and it comes nearly two decades earlier, around 2084.

That might still sound like a big number. But it’s a sharp departure from the “endless growth” assumptions many policymakers, investors, and institutions still use to guide their decisions. The real story is not just that the U.N. is forecasting fewer people. It’s that many demographers believe that even those numbers are still too high.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: birth; children; population
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Personally I'm guessing peak population prior to 2050, well ahead of the UN estimates. And note that the professional estimates, by their nature, never include black swan events like a serious pandemic, or a serious change in trajectory such as widespread warfare or nuclear exchange. I suspect they don't even take at face value the trajectory of changes in TFR over time and the idea that they will continue on present or similar trajectories.
1 posted on 06/24/2025 10:25:18 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

China already adjusted their population a year or so from 1.5 to 1.4 million. Must have been a rounding error.
We so sorry.

FYI, that rounding error is 100 million Chinamen


2 posted on 06/24/2025 10:28:37 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: woodbutcher1963
FYI, that rounding error is 100 million Chinamen.

That's a whole lotta fly lice!

3 posted on 06/24/2025 10:31:34 AM PDT by rexthecat
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To: EnderWiggin1970

I miss the days when there were only 3 billion people on earth.

More wide open places.


4 posted on 06/24/2025 10:31:55 AM PDT by texanyankee
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The Population Bomb was the 1960s version of Global Warming: The reason progress and Western Civilization had to die.


5 posted on 06/24/2025 10:32:46 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Whenever a muslim murders a Christian, it’s the Jews’ fault! - Nitzy, 6/22/25)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

It’s basically like predicting how good the dove hunting will be this year. If there’s a lot of rain, and a lot of food, the doves will be everywhere. If it’s a dry sparse year, there won’t be as much dove flying around.

Same with the world population, with massive financial instability around the world, the dollar is doing OK but confidence in it is dropping, everyone is scrambling to buy gold, the home prepping industry for financial disaster has never been stronger. Central banks are acting like they know something we don’t as they hoard all of the gold and silver they can find. Also we’re basically in a low-key world war that can go higher order at any time. Government sponsored faggotry, feminism, environmentalism and globalism have convinced a huge swath of people that kids are bad.

So the population of earth, the doves if you will, are going to slow down their breeding.


6 posted on 06/24/2025 10:33:00 AM PDT by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2025... RETURN OF THE JEDI….)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

We need more gene editing injections! /SNL spoof


7 posted on 06/24/2025 10:33:20 AM PDT by philman_36 (Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

That is anecdotal evidence that that the vaxx was effective.


8 posted on 06/24/2025 10:35:54 AM PDT by Cold Heart (It's a good time to be ashamed to be a democrat)
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To: rexthecat
That's a whole lotta fly lice!


9 posted on 06/24/2025 10:40:46 AM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: woodbutcher1963

Must have been a rounding error.

~~~

Like when the Pentagon loses billions.
It is just a rounding error. Nothing so see here. Move on. Don’t ask any questions.


10 posted on 06/24/2025 10:43:56 AM PDT by z3n (Kakistocracy)
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To: Cold Heart

“That is anecdotal evidence that that the vaxx was effective.”

Don’t forget to include the agenda driven increase in same sex relationships, the sterilization of the next generation through transhumanism, lawless cities, encouraged suicide, destruction of normality in the culture and home, no definitive morality, lack of consequences for bad behavior, acceptance of every form of evil as one’s self gratified truth.....


11 posted on 06/24/2025 10:44:17 AM PDT by Whatever Works (The real power lies in who counts the votes and controls the teleprompter.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The old estimate failed to take into consideration the effect of the Covid vaccine.


12 posted on 06/24/2025 10:45:46 AM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The term “gun decking” is also naval slang for fabricating or falsifying something.

A possible explanation relates to midshipmen retiring to the gun deck to complete their celestial navigation assignments of computing the ship’s position three times daily following morning star sights, noon sun line, and evening star sights.

While some midshipmen might be conscientious about computing positions from new observations, others were reputed to extrapolate and back calculate observation data from dead reckoning courses and speeds since earlier observations, and the computations performed on the gun deck were suspect.[2][3]

This term is now used to indicate the falsification of documentation in order to avoid doing the work or make present conditions seem otherwise acceptable.[3]


13 posted on 06/24/2025 10:48:27 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Drones have forever changed fighting wars/with Navy/Army top water or below and anything that flies)
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To: woodbutcher1963

The Chinese “rounding error” is a whole lot higher than that I’d wager.


14 posted on 06/24/2025 10:50:33 AM PDT by Frank Drebin (And don't ever let me catch you guys in America!)
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To: Frank Drebin
Peter Zeihan was the one who pointed this Chinese population adjustment out a couple years ago.

https://zeihan.com/

If your not familiar he makes a living as a Geopolitics. He goes around the world giving speeches on how this our that is going to effect your company or country. He has been saying for a few years now that China topped. It has reached it Zenith economically. He also pointed out that if the Chinese admitted that their population has dropped by 100 million people, that it has probably dropped a lot more than that.

The one child policy is causing their demise. There are literally MILLIONS of China MEN that will NEVER have a wife.
There just are not enough women to go around.

I used to subscribe to Peter's YouTube channel after I saw him on Joe Rogan. He is very smart and extremely persuasive in his point making. He really thinks he knows what he is talking about. However, he is a Liberal and my wife hated listening to him. So, she deleted his channel from our YouTube subscriptions.

15 posted on 06/24/2025 11:04:38 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: woodbutcher1963

Zeihan is a self promoter who makes a living talking, not being right. This is the same guy who said in 2022 that the diminished Russian oil flow would clog their pipelines and instantly reduce flow to 0.

But more important, here’s what’s what in population.

It’s food. If there’s food, animal population, including humans, increases.

Plague smashed Europe. Took it far down, killing farmers and that population did not recover (plague was 1340ish onward a few decades) until about 1500. Why? Columbus brought the potato to Europe. It could grow anywhere there was water and Europe certainly has rain.

Then the next boost, the current spike upwards in population, is from oil. Oil allowed 1000s and 1000s of acres to get planted within the northern hemisphere’s limited growing season, and then harvested before it rotted in the fields. All because oil arrived and pushed tractors around.

Oil consumption defines population. 102 million barrels/day. That won’t continue, not because of reduced demand. Because it will get scarce, and populations will decline.


16 posted on 06/24/2025 11:14:45 AM PDT by Owen
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Thanks for this post.


17 posted on 06/24/2025 11:17:02 AM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: woodbutcher1963

doesn’t china have billions of people, not 1&1/2 million?


18 posted on 06/24/2025 11:24:20 AM PDT by b4me (Pray, and let God change you. He knows better than you or anyone else, who He made you to be.)
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To: Cold Heart
That is anecdotal evidence that that the vaxx was effective.

And that gay/lesbians are proliferating and not reproducing.

19 posted on 06/24/2025 11:34:04 AM PDT by roadcat ( )
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To: b4me
As of 2023, one estimate I'm seeing is that both India and China are at 1.43 Billion. That's pretty close to other official estimates I've seen. There seems to be agreement that India edged out China a few years ago and China has begun to decline slightly. This is the normal pattern: The population of a country tops out, starts declining very slightly, and then the declines gain steam over time.

What we don't know is how a population pulls out of the increasingly steep nose-dive, or what it entails. For example the social factors that lead to a low birthrate would disappear as civilization collapses due to too few workers to maintain utilities, logistics and manufacturing. That in turn might lead to a birthrate recovery as the survivors live in what would practically amount to a post-apocalyptic setting (just without any radiation or bomb craters in the decaying ghost towns).

20 posted on 06/24/2025 12:19:14 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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