Posted on 04/08/2025 6:00:35 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
On Monday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “Ingraham Angle,” White House Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro said that the market is “finding a bottom” at the moment, predicted that the Dow Jones will surge in the future and argued that the gains in the S&P 500 over the past couple years “have been basically seven stocks, the magnificent seven, the AIs. Most of the stocks in the S&P 500 have gone nowhere. Now, they’re going to go crazy” due to increased investment in the United States.
Navarro said, “[W]hat I see is 50,000 on the Dow. I predicted, in 2016, the day after the president got elected, back then, when the futures were dead red down, I said we were going to go to 25,000. I got that exactly right. We’re going to 50.”
He continued, “But, more importantly, with the S&P 500, the gains we’ve had over the last couple of years have been basically seven stocks, the magnificent seven, the AIs. Most of the stocks in the S&P 500 have gone nowhere. Now, they’re going to go crazy. They’re going to go so bullish, because we’re bringing our investment home.”
Later, he added that the market is “finding a bottom now.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Right about the gains, unwise in projecting the market. (Economists are famously bad investors, on average.)
I would say its roughly true until this year - the big 7 stocks grew about 75% and the SP500 grew about 24%.
Sector growths are cyclical: one year it is tech, the next year pharma etc. etc.
I am sure NVIDA was a lot of it. Palantir was another. Tesla was another UNTIL last December.
All three of the above have fallen significantly since December.
Just pull up the five year chart of all three.
The 27 year old guy next to me bought Tesla at $112. Which was its low since mid 2020. I had a buy order in at 105 but it never got there.
I but NVDIA and Palantir about a month ago at 115 and 88 respectively. I would average down now if I had something else in my brokerage account to sell.
My 401K has been 100% in MM/TBills since last July.
Plus I own more TBILLS out side of the 401K. This means that 90% of my investments are now in MM/TBILLS.
This is the most conservative I have ever been in 40+ years of investing. I am going to be 62 next week. So, my investment horizon has changed. I think this pullback will be another long term opportunity. It is a correction we badly needed. The question is how much of a recession are we going to go into?
Good points
Stocks are still wildly overvalued in general.
However, recent declines make now a good time to look for values.
Our tech companies tend to make their physical products in Asia.
I suspect much of the software is not made in the USA. Intellectual property is typically held by companies created in tax havens.
The Coca-Cola sold in Europe is made in Europe.
In the Italian supermarkets I visited, soda and cereal were the US branded products I noticed. Italy does import hard liquor.
Most US stuff sold in foreign countries with competition is either made there or it’s made in Asia with US branding.
If the EU targets Apple phones or other US-branded, Asian-made products, Asian leaders will make phone calls.
The Trump tariffs aren’t being applied to EU drugs or industrial inputs other than ferrous metals and aluminum.
“famously bad investors”
One has to be slightly smarter than the average ‘bull’.
My mom was a great investor. I’m pretty bad at it.
Peter has been right in the past about the market. He is also correct that most of the overall gains are attributable to 7 stocks, mostly tech stocks.
I liked listening to Navarro. He was sent to prison for four months during the administration of President autopen.
Is he right? Well, I think he provides an important counter view to those who tout “free-markets” as generating wealth.
For starters, we have never had free markets. We have never been on a course to get free markets. It’s conceivable that Trump’s tariffs could lead to free markets, with no tariffs or quotas. It is evident that other countries will not reduce their tariffs unless forced to do so.
My concern in the short-medium run is that so many products are inter-connected. Navarro gives the example of German transmissions going into cars assembled in the US. It will take time to in-shore everything. Do you think GM is even trying?
I do think that the pre-Trump status quo gave us low-cost products. On the other hand, domestic manufacturing and national security were eroded.
I learned today that the Canadian PMs wife is opposed to “consumerism,” whatever that is. So, slightly higher prices may reign in some of our “consumerism” excesses.
Sure I like lower prices. I also like American jobs, both for the income and for national security.
What about the stock market? It has its ups and downs as always. I’m scrounging around to find money to invest in all American companies.
WIKI
The company has four main projects: Palantir Gotham, Palantir Foundry, Palantir Apollo, and Palantir AIP. Palantir Gotham is an intelligence and defense tool used by militaries and counter-terrorism analysts. Its customers included the United States Intelligence Community (USIC) and United States Department of Defense. Their software as a service (SaaS) is one of five offerings authorized for Mission Critical National Security Systems (IL5) by the U.S. Department of Defense. Palantir Foundry is used for data integration and analysis by corporate clients such as Morgan Stanley, Merck KGaA, Airbus, Wejo, Lilium, PG&E and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. Palantir Apollo is a platform to facilitate continuous integration/continuous delivery (CI/CD) across all environments.
Palantir’s original clients were federal agencies of the USIC.
more at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palantir_Technologies
Never saw him listed as even a near billionaire.
Don’t get me wrong. I love Peter. But he should stay in his lane.
I said he was right about what he was right about.
(And it wasn’t any secret.)
A palantír ([paˈlanˌtiːr]; pl. palantíri) is one of several indestructible crystal balls from J. R. R. Tolkien’s epic-fantasy novel The Lord of the Rings. The word comes from Quenya palan ‘far’, and tir ‘watch over’.[T 1] The palantírs were used for communication and to see events in other parts of Arda, or in the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palant%C3%ADr
Read customer testimonials about 80% of the way down the page:
I’m simply learning about and informing people about the company. I don’t own the stock nor do I intend to buy any.
Invest at your own risk.
AI, tell us the way forward!
AI isn’t all there yet.
So far, stocks are up this morning. Down for the month, three months and 1 year. Up compared to 5 years ago:
https://www.morningstar.com/markets
Tesla at it’s high in december had a PE over 300. There wasn’t a good chance it would sustain that.
“Navarro gives the example of German transmissions going into cars assembled in the US. It will take time to in-shore everything. Do you think GM is even trying?”
The motor vehicle companies need to work by mainly internal, tariff-free barter, say Mexican car seats and carburetors for say US-made EV batteries.
Barter can be external too.
Good Morning, US customs agent in LA!
Good Morning, Chinese customs agent in Shanghai! How much US stuff is pending?
$300 million.
Good, click on the list of impending Chinese stuff you want to come in tariff-free. This can’t include steel, non-barter motor vehicles or their parts, or non-barter automatically made and packaged goods such as nails.
I know the applicable US rules and laws. Give me an hour.
Are the US goods released in Shanghai?
Yes!
Are the Chinese goods released in LA?
Wait 30 seconds! Done!
Market corrections are great.
They scare out the timid investor, establish a floor for the market, give an opportunity to invest at a cheap price.
Let the bold make the profits, by election day 2026 many bold investors will be sitting on a solid profit.
Tesla is back to its Oct 2024 values.
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