The Undercounted Statistics of Illegal Immigrants

The Tennessee Star ^ | November 25, 2024 | John Lott Jr.

[MikelTackNailer]

In June, Victor Martinez-Hernandez was charged with the murder of Rachel Morin, a mother of five in Maryland. Police in Oklahoma tracked the accused repeat offender down with a sample of his DNA recovered from a Los Angeles home invasion in which a nine-year-old girl and her mother were assaulted. Police say he came to the U.S. illegally to escape prosecution for at least one other murder in his native El Salvador in December 2022.

“That should never have been allowed to happen,” said Sheriff Jeffrey Gahler, referring to the numerous missed red flags the case presented. His office apprehended Hernandez in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Like the member of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua sentenced to life in prison last week for the murder of Laken Riley in Georgia, Hernandez’s case is shining a light on the federal government’s failure to properly vet and keep track of lawless migrants.

These gaps have led to broad claims that illegal immigrants have less involvement with the criminal justice system than native-born Americans. A review of the available data, however, shows that the criminal records of millions of migrants – the ones President-elect Trump vows to prioritize for deportation – remain unknown due to illegal crossings, lax enforcement, and lax data collection by federal and “sanctuary” jurisdictions.

In addition, an analysis of the available statistics by RealClearInvestigations suggests that the crime rate of noncitizens is vastly understated. A separate RCI analysis based on estimates developed by the U.S. Department of Justice’s National Institute of Justice (NIJ) suggests that crime by illegal aliens who entered the U.S. by July 21, 2024 cost the country some $166.5 billion. These criminals disproportionately entered the U.S. during the Biden administration.

The problem begins with incomplete initial vetting by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The criminal histories of migrants from far-flung countries with often shoddy record-keeping are somewhat hard to determine. It is also impractical to hold each person until they have passed a rigorous background check. As a result, ICE routinely releases many illegals into the country on their own recognizance and then discovers afterward that many had criminal records in their home countries.

In response to a request from Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, ICE reported this summer that it has released 7.4 million such “non-detained” noncitizens into the U.S. during the last four decades or so. ICE reports that these include 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories – 435,719 individuals with criminal convictions in their home countries and another 226,847 with pending criminal charges. These precise figures, however, do not say whether the crimes of the latter group were committed in the accused’s home country or the U.S.

In the July 21 letter to Rep. Gonzales, ICE reported that 13,099 of these non-detained individuals have convictions for homicide, with 1,845 facing criminal homicide charges. Another 9,461 have convictions for sex offenses (not including assault or commercialized sex), and 2,659 face pending charges. The convictions include other crimes such as assault (62,231), robbery (10,031), sexual assault (15,811), weapons offenses (13,423), and dangerous drugs (56,533).

These figures are only suggestive of the extent of crime because they only list the most serious crime committed by each individual. A murderer, for example, who also committed a sex offense, is only counted as a murderer. It does not include the fact that millions of migrants are violating the law because of their presence in the U.S. It also does not account for the lawbreaking involved in working without proper authorization or the widespread use of stolen Social Security numbers to secure employment.

The 662,566 convicted and likely criminals make up 9% of the 7.4 million released noncitizens.

The statistics miss much of the relationship between crime and illegal aliens. Noncitizens in the “national docket data” either surrendered to border agents or were apprehended at the border. Those who avoid surrender likely have reasons to evade authorities, such as a criminal background. But there are others who avoided being caught and won’t be in these numbers. That group includes “gotaways” – individuals observed crossing the U.S. border illegally but not apprehended or turned back. With up to 38% of border agents shifted from monitoring to processing duties and 30% of surveillance cameras not functioning, millions more likely entered the U.S. undetected, potentially including the most dangerous individuals.

The Customs and Border Protection Agency estimates that some two million such “gotaways” have entered the country since 2021.

The data on migrants who have been processed also understates the problem. Criminals rarely commit just one crime. For example, from 1990 to 2002, in the 75 most populous U.S. counties, 70% of those convicted of a violent felony had a prior arrest, and 56% had a prior criminal conviction. In 2023 in Washington, D.C., the average homicide suspect had been arrested 11 times before committing a homicide. Data for 30 states shows that 60.1% of criminals released from prison in 2005 had been arrested again within two years, and 73.5% had been arrested within four years. The ICE data set provides a single entry for each individual.

Most violent crimes don’t result in an arrest, so looking at arrests or convictions in these other countries will underestimate whether illegal aliens are criminals. Across all U.S. cities in 2022, only 35.2% of violent crimes resulted in an arrest. While 50.6% of murders resulted in an arrest, just 24.1% of rapes produced an arrest, 22.7% of robberies, and 39.9% of aggravated assaults.

As the Laken Riley and Rachel Morin murder cases make clear, it is difficult to calculate all the victimization costs of crime to families and society.

Using tools developed by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), RCI did estimate what is likely the bare minimum economic costs of illegal alien crime. It arrived at its estimated cost to victims in dollar terms by assuming that each of the 662,566 “non-detained” noncitizen offenders on ICE’s list committed just once in the U.S. the crime for which they have been previously accused.

ICE presented Rep. Gonzales with numbers on 42 different types of crime, but the NIJ only calculated the cost to victims for eight types of crime. Professor Mark Cohen at Vanderbilt University, who co-authored the original NIJ report, updated the list with 15 of the crime categories reported by ICE: murder, sexual assault, sexual offenses, robbery, assault, arson, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, weapon offenses, drugs, fraud, liquor offenses, gambling, and stolen property. Cohen’s updated numbers provide estimates for the damage from child abuse, drunk driving, and vandalism, but ICE did not collect numbers on those crimes.

NIJ’s estimated losses from crime victimization include: medical care/ambulances, mental health care, police/fire service costs, social/victim services, property loss/damage, reduced productivity (at work, home, and school), and nonmonetary losses (fear, pain, suffering, and lost quality of life).

Murders account for almost $153.8 billion of the $166.5 billion in estimated criminal victimization costs (a breakdown of the costs of crime for each type of crime is available here). Another $6 billion involves sexual assaults/offenses, and an additional $5.2 billion comes from sexual assaults and sexual offenses.

Half of the crimes these non-detained individuals commit don’t have cost estimates. These crimes include kidnapping, embezzlement, extortion, smuggling, traffic offenses, and weapon offenses.

These criminal illegal aliens entered the U.S. under multiple administrations, but the size of the problem was likely larger under the Biden administration. That isn’t just because so many more illegal aliens were entering the country. Under the Trump administration’s remain-in-Mexico policy, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) performed background checks on immigrants. That included contacting immigrants’ countries of origin.

ICE agents cannot access the same databases to check on the immigrants, and they don’t contact the immigrant’s home country. Plus, the massive inflow of immigrants has overwhelmed the system. The Deputy Director for ICE blames the “enormous workload” agents face, so they haven’t been able to do even the limited background checks they are doing. There are so many coming in that the government can’t house these immigrants until their backgrounds are properly checked.

ICE has been processing criminals as they enter the country, but without identifying them as criminals. So, under the Biden administration, they have simply been released into the country. Now, they are walking freely in the United States, and no one knows where they are.

As bad as these numbers are, the reality may be even worse. The Biden-Harris administration is accused of presenting the border crisis so that it does not look as bad as it is. In mid-September, retired San Diego Border Patrol Chief Aaron Heitk testified how the Biden administration ordered him not to publicize the arrests of illegal border crossers who they identified as having terrorist ties.

The American Immigration Council, which strongly opposes President-elect Donald Trump’s deportation policies, estimates that it could cost $88 billion to deport one million illegal immigrants. But if we accept its estimate and ignore the various government benefits that these individuals might be receiving, ICE’s number of 662,556 illegal criminal immigrants implies a cost of $58.3 billion to remove them – just over one-third of the conservative estimate given here of the cost of the crimes by these criminals.

The estimate of over $160 billion in costs from criminal illegal aliens is very likely an underestimate of the true costs. It assumes the average criminal coming into the country commits only one offense similar to what he committed in his home country. We are also not counting the costs of half of criminal illegal aliens.

[MikelTackNailer]

Here's a list 'Carriage Hill' put together of the NGOs who The Regime have been paying to bring in our replacements:

Catholic Charities USA
Red Cross USA
International Rescue Committee
Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service
Doctors Without Borders
Save the Children
RefugePoint
International Refugee Assistance Project
Alight
Jesuit Refugee Service
Casa Alitas
Global Refuge
International Organization for Migration
Cultural Orientation Resource Exchange
Feeding Our Future

...whom I list because I've yet to hear what's to be done about these criminal operators with their sun-shiny names.

[BarbM]

Being a Catholic, I have such a hard time believing that Catholic Charities is corrupt. They do good work here in Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Now the Jesuit refugee Service, not such a difficult time.

[dp0622]

Yeah well now they’re going the #### back.

The administration should be charged with SOMETHING regarding the rapes and murders of so many citizens.

BTW, people put up stats of murders etc as a reason to deport the illegals.

That’s the fallacy. We don’t NEED a reason to deport an ILLEGAL.

They already committed an illegal act.

The monstrous things too many of them do while here are a result of that original law not being enforced.

And I don’t know law, but I can’t believe there is nothing to charge the administration with.

[MikelTackNailer]

I have such a hard time believing that Catholic Charities is corrupt.

I have a friend who worked for Catholic Charities, running interference for illegals refusing or unable to assimilate. He was paid well (thanks to the U.S. government) but had to quit because the evil hypocrisy was killing his self-respect.

That was 25 years ago; which shows they've been running this game a long, long time.

[Cobra64]

The Stupid Party should be publishing these numbers totaling $166 BILLION (on one page from the link) 24/7/365. The public has no clue as to how much it costs supporting illegals every year. Not to mention the issues with schools and hospitals.

I will not hold my breath since The Stupid Party lives up to its name every day.

[Cobra64]

Yup. No,a quotes the laws, but no one published the laws for people to see and to shove in front of Schmuckie Schumer, AOC, Pelosi, amd the rest of the stupid democrats who are determined to destroy this county.

[MikelTackNailer]

I don’t know law, but I can’t believe there is nothing to charge the administration with.

The treasonous act of turning our border enforcers into "Free Ubers for Illegals", for starters. Allowing illegals to bypass TSA while we citizens continue putting up with their indignities, second. Purposely shipping illegals into communities who lack resources for the cynical purpose of flipping votes and inflating census numbers...

Whoo-eee, that's a lot of rope needed right there!

[bitt]

P

[alexander_busek]

It is also impractical to hold each person until they have passed a rigorous background check.

This is a crucial statement. (It's also a bald-faced lie.)

Regards,

[Liz]

p

[wita]

I wonder just how many of those also have the classification of non-profit. In essence, another bald faced lie. What they are engaged in is Treason for the financial benefit to them at the expense of “We the People”.

“We the people” need to insure these agencies are brought to justice for their crimes against humanity and their ill gotten gains recovered by...

Certainly not by the government that made the Treason possible.

[wita]

My youngest son occasionally takes me to task for being cryptic.

Using the page source, I’m still not quite sure what the P stands for other than a secret decoder ring group, or my lack of knowledge of computer language, and there could even be more.

Of join dates there is no doubt that “Liz” is one of the earliest still commenting.

[SisterK]

Could P be short for Ping
which is short for hey y’all come look at this

[metmom]

“That should never have been allowed to happen,” said Sheriff Jeffrey Gahler, referring to the numerous missed red flags the case presented.

They misspelled *ignored*.

[metmom]

I will not give to ANY of those scams.

I do it through our local church or Samaritan’s Purse or Teen Challenge.

[Twotone]

El Salvador, & all the others, knew exactly what they were doing when they emptied their prisons & sent their criminals to the US. That should enter into the Administrations considerations when it comes to any form of aid or assistance in the future.

[Vaduz]

That should never have been allowed to happen.

The GIN ( gangsters in government) own the arena for now and call the rules it’s good time for Trump to remove the trash that’s doing a disservice to the public.

[Liz]

Illegal Alien Suspects Charged With Child Sex Crimes The arrests have occurred all across Texas. Texans are continuing to see a steady stream of suspected illegal aliens charged with sexually abusing children, mirroring a nationwide crime trend. The X site Illegal Alien Crimes has documented the arrests of hundreds of suspects who have immigration detainers or “holds” issued by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Dozens are charged with sex crimes against minors.

The charges against the suspects include:
— Sexual assault of a child (8) — Aggravated sexual assault of a child (8)
— Continuous sexual abuse of a child — Sexual abuse of multiple children
— Continuous sexual abuse of a child under the age of 14 (7) — Indecency with a child by sexual contact (10) — Indecency with a child by exposure
— Sex trafficking of a child — Online solicitation of a child for sex
— Inducing sexual performance of a child — Possession of child sexual abuse material (child pornography)

Other recent illegal alien arrests in Texas have included charges ranging from indecent exposure and invasive visual recording in a bathroom to aggravated sexual assault, assault with a deadly weapon, kidnapping, and murder.

[MikelTackNailer]

Was just listening to Ted Cruz saying the same; how Obama installed a bunch of partisan sycophants in place of responsible civil servants who worked against President Trump on the down low and became brazen about their ‘Party before Country’ agenda under Biden.

Examples have to be made. I hear several cells will be open at Riker’s soon...for a start.

The “non-profits” need to be exposed and their status changed immediately to remove the financial incentive to betray our nation.

These are big news stories! Don’t we have a press corps? Oh wait - never mind.

[truthkeeper]

I will not hold my breath since The Stupid Party lives up to its name every day.

I also don't see much pushback on the "11 million undocumented" number they've been feeding us since the days of W Bush.