Posted on 11/22/2024 4:45:39 AM PST by bert
According to Baram, the current ceasefire proposal would allow Hezbollah to regain its strength within a year or two.
While the ceasefire proposal brokered by the US between Israel and Hezbollah would allow a temporary cessation of hostilities, a more permanent solution could be found within Lebanese politics, Middle East expert, professor Amatzia Baram told Radio 103FM on Friday.
While he affirmed that the proposal was "not bad," Baram added, "From a more analytical perspective, the implication is that within a year or two, Hezbollah will return to what it was, and it will be better, more updated, more technological, with leadership that is less experienced, but a leadership that will receive support from Iran."
In such a case, a more difficult round of conflict would ensue, Baram stated. "We need to understand what this means – we will go to a much harder war in a few years. This is something very difficult to accept," he said.
According to Baram, "It is possible to reach a better solution, even without extending the war by much." For Baram, the solution lies within Lebanon.
"There are almost a quarter of a million Lebanese Shiite refugees who fled to Syria, where they are not wanted. They fled to Iraq, and they are not wanted in Baghdad. They fled to southern Iraq, which is a Shiite area, and there they are accepted," Baram explained.
"The Kuwaitis are concerned because they are on the Kuwaiti border. Many Shiites are in different parts of Lebanon, but they are not welcomed with open arms almost anywhere," he stated.
He detailed the effects of such a situation on a terrorist from Hezbollah's elite Radwan Unit.
"One needs to think like a terrorist of the Radwan force," who remained in Lebanon while his family fled to southern Iraq, for example.
"They speak two or three times on the phone. Even an Israeli reserve soldier who is now in southern Lebanon and talks to his family feels bad, but you can't compare the two – because our soldiers have support. The Shiites, have no support," Baram affirmed.
Lebanese politics Baram referred to Lebanese politics and its stance on terrorism, explaining: "The Lebanese parliament has 128 seats, with 17 belonging to the Maronite party, which until now has staunchly supported Hezbollah. Now their leader has announced that he no longer supports Hezbollah."
"More than two years ago, there were elections in Lebanon, after years of tension between the Shiites and the rest of the population, and the result was that Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority they had in parliament, and now the parliament is divided.
"So, when 17 members of parliament shift their support to the opposing side, it’s a very heavy blow," Baram explained.
According to Baram, this will subsequently enable the election of a new president who "could issue an order that would require Hezbollah to disarm, which is essentially Resolution 1701."
In such a scenario, Baram explained," They [Hezbollah] will take the Kalashnikov out of the children's room and go out into the street. They have rifles, that’s true, but then they will lose the legitimacy of the democratic government.
"If the parliament is against them, they will lose all the public and international legitimacy they have."
The Americans vainly attempting to protect the proIranian legacy of the Black President Barack Obama ahve gone down in flames.
Change, very big change is in the wind. President Trump will see that Iran is banished
Hope so, but not so sure, given folks like Gabbard.
WTH are Maronites supporting Hezbollah? Friggen ahoes.
Total BS! Your views are incredibly wrong and even more dangerous. Israel and the Sixth Fleet would both be destroyed before the U.S. could defeat iran, even using nukes. Thankfully, there are no warmongering maniacs with your disgusting views calling any of the shots.
Trump realizes that Israel is now the second most powerful conventional state in the area. He also realizes Israel is at the mercy of Iranian ballistic missiles. Trump will act according and negotiate peace. He will save Israel from that war criminal Bibi in the process.
Drivelous balderdash fabricated from near total ignorance
People most often intend the obviously predictable consequences of their deliberate actions or proposals.
The purpose of this patently I’ll- timed “peace” proposal is to save the hezbslkah terrorist murder gang and keep it in Occupation of Lebanon so that it can be refinanced/ supplied (via Snake Department front organizations and Iran) to re- attack Israel again. The agenda is to kill the Jews. It failed this time because the Jews have unmitigated gall and audacity to defend themselves. But not to worry, the Nazis embedded in the snake dept will make sure the terrorist gangs and Iran are even stronger next time with even more weapons.
Hoping that PDJT is allowed to take office and that he can clean this filth out of “our” government once and for all. Praying
When posting sarcasm, labeling it as such helps avoid any misunderstandings. Even when the jest is obvious (as was yours).
Thank you.
King James Bible
For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.
Gill’s Exposition of the Entire Bible
For when they shall say,.... Or men shall say, that is, wicked and ungodly men, persons in a state of unregeneracy:
peace and safety; when they shall sing a requiem, to themselves, promise themselves much ease and peace for years to come, and imagine their persons and property to be very secure from enemies and oppressors, and shall flatter themselves with much and long temporal happiness:
then sudden destruction cometh upon them; as on the men of the old world in the times of Noah, and on the inhabitants of Sodom and Gomorrah in the days of Lot; for as these, will be the days of the Son of man, as at the time of the destruction of Jerusalem, so at the last day; see Luke 17:26 and as was the destruction of literal Babylon, so of Babylon in a mystical sense, or antichrist and his followers: and which will be
as travail upon a woman with child; whose anguish and pains are very sharp, the cause of which is within herself, and which come suddenly upon her, and are unavoidable; and so the metaphor expresses the sharpness and severity of the destruction of the wicked, thus the calamities on the Jewish nation are expressed by a word which signifies the sorrows, pangs, and birth throes of a woman in travail, Matthew 24:8, and likewise that the cause of it is from themselves, their own sins and transgressions; and also the suddenness of it, which will come upon them in the midst of all their mirth, jollity, and security; and moreover, the inevitableness of it, it will certainly come at the full and appointed time, though that is not known:
and they shall not escape; the righteous judgment of God, the wrath of the Lamb, or falling into his hands; to escape is impossible, rocks, hills, and mountains will not cover and hide them; before the judgment seat of Christ they must stand, and into everlasting punishment must they go
I am sorry, but Lebanon is as hopeless as Haiti. That’s just the way it is. The expat population of people from Lebanon is between 4 and 14 million, while the population of Lebanon is at most 5 million. The best and the good just leave. The situation never gets better and all groups, Sunni, Shia, Christian are dominated by their own gangs.
First, that the ceasefire will allow the Hizzies to rearm, Iran will rearm and train the new stooges.
[snip] "There are almost a quarter of a million Lebanese Shiite refugees who fled to Syria, where they are not wanted. They fled to Iraq, and they are not wanted in Baghdad. They fled to southern Iraq, which is a Shiite area, and there they are accepted," Baram explained.
"The Kuwaitis are concerned because they are on the Kuwaiti border. Many Shiites are in different parts of Lebanon, but they are not welcomed with open arms almost anywhere," he stated...
Lebanese politics Baram referred to Lebanese politics and its stance on terrorism, explaining: "The Lebanese parliament has 128 seats, with 17 belonging to the Maronite party, which until now has staunchly supported Hezbollah. Now their leader has announced that he no longer supports Hezbollah."
"More than two years ago, there were elections in Lebanon, after years of tension between the Shiites and the rest of the population, and the result was that Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority they had in parliament, and now the parliament is divided.
"So, when 17 members of parliament shift their support to the opposing side, it’s a very heavy blow," Baram explained. [/snip]
Didn’t you say on another thread that Iran has already defeated Israel?
Or was that in your wet dream?
You can rest assured that Israel is not at the mercy of Iranian missiles.
Only in your jew-hating dreams
When I read that the solution depends upon the Lebanese parliament, I did not feel optimistic.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.