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Allan Lichtman takes shot at Nate Silver: ‘I admit that I was wrong’
The Hill ^ | 11/06/24 | Dominick Mastrangelo

Posted on 11/06/2024 4:10:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

Elections forecaster Allan Lichtman took a swipe at fellow prognosticator Nate Silver on Wednesday while admitting he was wrong in predicting Vice President Harris would win the presidency.

“Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,” Lichtman wrote on the social platform X, adding that he “will assess the election and the keys,” in an upcoming online live show.

His comments come after former President Trump was declared the winner early Wednesday.

A historian and American University professor, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions, Lichtman predicted Harris would win, saying only a major event overseas could still flip the race Trump’s favor.

Silver’s analysis had the race as a statistical toss-up, though he hedged that “close polls don’t necessarily predict a close result.”

“How there could be another systematic polling error favoring either Trump or Harris that turns Ann Selzer into a hero or a goat — and about how other gutless pollsters have basically just given up and decided to copy off the students who did their homework,” Silver added.

Silver had previously written his gut sense was that Trump would win.

Lichtman has taken shots at the FiveThirtyEight founder in the past, and the pair feuded online in September when Silver argued that Lichtman’s method in fact predicted a Trump win.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: allanlichtman; fivethirtyeight; lichtman; natesilver
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1 posted on 11/06/2024 4:10:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Barris was taking a victory lap over a ton of pollsters last night. Said Selzer had sold her soul and ended her career.


2 posted on 11/06/2024 4:12:23 PM PST by FlipWilson
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To: MinorityRepublican

Great article.


3 posted on 11/06/2024 4:13:32 PM PST by lonestar67 (America is exceptional)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Cat fight.


4 posted on 11/06/2024 4:14:22 PM PST by hercuroc
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To: MinorityRepublican

One of this guys 13 items is the incumbent administration is scandal-free….he claimed it was. A delusional partisan hack.


5 posted on 11/06/2024 4:16:19 PM PST by wny
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To: MinorityRepublican
I am not sure there is any way in today's America to get a consistently accurate political poll. Too many variables and, in a lot of instances, too much push polling.

As many here have indicated, the polls are meant to manipulate the voters, not to gauge the political race in a reasonably accurate manner.

6 posted on 11/06/2024 4:16:36 PM PST by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
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To: CatOwner

Nate Silver is the only major pollster who was saying that Trump was going to win. It appears that everyone else was behind their push polls attempting to manipulate us.


7 posted on 11/06/2024 4:18:19 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

When I actually read his system, I wasn’t impressed. Also, if he allowed himself to have such a rooting interest, he couldn’t be impartial.


8 posted on 11/06/2024 4:19:06 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: wny
One of this guys 13 items is the incumbent administration is scandal-free….he claimed it was. A delusional partisan hack.

Somebody pointed out that if you take a look at his so-called "keys", Trump was going to win.

Of course Lichtman did not interpret it that way this time due to his TDS.

9 posted on 11/06/2024 4:19:39 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: FlipWilson

Read the article twice. Who is Barris and Seltzer?


10 posted on 11/06/2024 4:19:51 PM PST by Blue Highway
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Silver had previously written his gut sense was that Trump would win.

Lichtman has taken shots at the FiveThirtyEight founder in the past, and the pair feuded online in September when Silver argued that Lichtman’s method in fact predicted a Trump win.

Silver was right on both counts.

And Lichtman is a doofus.

11 posted on 11/06/2024 4:20:39 PM PST by Henchster (Free Republic - the BEST site on the web!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

I’ve been voting since 1976 and never heard of Allan Lichtman until now. I guess he operates under the radar.


12 posted on 11/06/2024 4:21:15 PM PST by Larry Lucido (Donate! Don't just post clickbait!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

“ Nate Silver is the only major pollster who was saying that Trump was going to win.”

You must have missed his final forecast.


13 posted on 11/06/2024 4:23:53 PM PST by TonyM (Score Event)
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To: Larry Lucido
I’ve been voting since 1976 and never heard of Allan Lichtman until now. I guess he operates under the radar.

First time I've heard of him this year.

14 posted on 11/06/2024 4:24:43 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: TonyM
You must have missed his final forecast.

I missed that one. 50/50 right?

15 posted on 11/06/2024 4:25:41 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

While leftist, Nate Silver is statistician by training while Lichtman is a historian. As a result, Silver relies on what he sees in the number or results of statistical models. Lichtman method is evaluating situation then assigning yes/no answer to the 13 indicators he made.

Both use model in their analysis but Lichtman’s prone to the person’s bias.


16 posted on 11/06/2024 4:27:11 PM PST by paudio (There is a new math: 45 = 47)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Nate Silver is a pussy. A real prognosticator would take a risk to make a prediction instead of hedging. I have more respect for that dunce from Iowa who got it wrong but at least she had the courage to do so.


17 posted on 11/06/2024 4:28:11 PM PST by KingofZion
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To: KingofZion
Nate Silver is a pussy. A real prognosticator would take a risk to make a prediction instead of hedging.

His initial predictions were correct. Then he decided to hedge at the last minute. Should have gone with his guts. F' it all.

18 posted on 11/06/2024 4:30:46 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: paudio
Lichtman method is evaluating situation then assigning yes/no answer to the 13 indicators he made.

I didn't take a look at them. But from what I understand, they were subjective. However, they were in Trump's favor.

You would think we would hear the MSM call him out on it before the election.

But they were all full of "joy".

19 posted on 11/06/2024 4:32:52 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
Nate Silver is the only major pollster who was saying that Trump was going to win.

The day before the election he said Commiela was going to win.

20 posted on 11/06/2024 4:32:54 PM PST by KevinB (Word for the day: "kakistocracy" - a society governed by its least suitable or competent citizens)
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