Posted on 11/05/2024 10:47:26 AM PST by thegagline
Top pollster Nate Silver has released his long-awaited final prediction of the 2024 election hours before the polls close across the U.S.
And he says it's 'literally closer than a coin flip,' as what could be the closest election in U.S. history comes to a close Tuesday.
After 80,000 model simulations, Silver has Democrat Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in the majority of match ups.
The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris's 50.015 percent,' Silver said on Tuesday morning.
According to his model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015% of the simulations compared to Trump's 49.985%. That equates to Harris winning 40,012 simulations to Trump's 39,718.
'When I say the odds in are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I'm not exaggerating,' Silver went on.
*** The nail-biting race is one of the closest in history and is likely to be decided by a couple of thousand votes in smatterings across swing states, as indicated by the pollsters' final prediction.
Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan will all be closely watched today as votes trickle in.
Those states are the crucial swing states that will ultimately decide the outcome.
The analysis found that on November 5, Harris led Trump in national polling averages by just one point, up 48.6% to 47.6%.
It also shows that the Republican holds leads across all of the critical swing states except Michigan where he is down 1.2 points and Wisconsin where he is behind by one point. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Well civil war it is then.
Florida +23% R
Arizona Maricopa election day Rs 40% Ds 20%
Rurals showing up like crazy in PA
This is a wave election
Silver was given his orders, Declare it close and Harris for the win, just more fake news.
He was told to say this so as to not dispirit the libtards voting.
Crap
How accurate was he the last time?
The pollsters are pretending that early voting never happened.
I hope they don’t drive on highways!
Sorry guys. Harris held the momentum all the way through. It would appear to be over.
Is this an Electoral College guess or Popular Vote?
This is designed to suppress GOP turnout.
This is about suppressing the E-day Republican voters in order to deny Trump a mandate by winning the popular vote as well.
Yeah the fix is in. Now they are using bomb threats instead of pipe breaks.
We shall see. Those of a certain age remember Reagan in 1980. The networks called it for him at just a few minutes past 5:00 PST. Democrat voting collapsed in the western U.S. as a result and Reagan had his landslide
Silver seemed to think Trump was doing very well only a few days ago. What has changed his mind?
I have suspected all along that they will install Harris. It turns my stomach, but I firmly believe that’s our fate.
Imagine this: The Dems inserted the very unpopular Harris in place of Biden. The Dem allied media then went to work, recreated Harris as a bright, energetic, popular candidate, who never got a vote cast for her.
It worked! I can only shake my head. I hate Harris, and I hate her stupid supporters.
Yep, I lived thru that.
“What has changed his mind?”
The Republicans got a few million more early votes?
Lol.
Well, she may win, but your defeatist post is without basis in fact. After the coup, her numbers shot up, followed by dropping down and purportedly being tied or close to in the key jurisdictions. How is that characterized as “…maintaining her momentum all the way through”?
The Deep State
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.