Posted on 11/01/2024 10:18:31 AM PDT by lasereye
It’s still anybody’s guess who will win the race for the White House but one prominent prediction market, reflecting bets on the outcome, is suggesting that there may be momentum for Kamala Harris.
Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, said in a statement Friday morning that Harris “engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback” on the company’s ForecastTrader platform on Thursday night. He noted that the probability of her defeating Donald Trump rose from 38% a day earlier to 44% late Thursday, adding that there was volume of about $40 million for the Harris trade.
ForecastTrader is one of several betting markets that Wall Street has been looking at in the past few weeks. Several other prominent platforms, such as PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket, all still show much greater odds of a Trump win, ranging from about a 56% to 62% probability that he will be elected as the 47th president. But chances of a Harris victory have risen modestly on these sites as well in recent days.
While Interactive Brokers is also only predicting a 44% chance of a Harris win, that is up from just 38% earlier this week. Peterffy said the shift it is probably not due to market manipulation.
He acknowledged that “many observers worry that prediction markets could distort election outcomes, but that is unlikely.” Peterffy pointed out that the major prediction markets are also regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which means that there would be serious consequences if anyone tried to game the system and make it look like one candidate had a bigger chance of winning.
“Market manipulation is a criminal offense punishable by fines and jail, and regulated exchanges are required to investigate and report suspicious activities,” he said. “Therefore, manipulation is unlikely to have been the cause.”
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
As for Trump's odds of winning narrowing, I don't think he should have been a 60%+ betting favorite in the first place.
Some sharp bettors who already placed bets on Trump at something like even odds are probably putting money on Harris now, because they are getting very good odds of around 2-1 should she win. It's called hedging. If they timed their bets correctly, they will make money no matter which one wins.
Article:
“Market manipulation is a criminal offense punishable by fines and jail”....
if you are a Republican.
Democrats have a “get out of jail free” card at the DOJ.
The Department of Just Us.
Once the odds in any “market” get out of balance, forces will move to rebalance. This is especially true if you can cash out before the event and make a profit.
This story means little to anyone who has bet on stuff in the past.
Didn’t we hear from leftist all last week that right-wingers were crazy for looking at betting markets showing a clear Trump victory?
“Harris “engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback””
That is just downright laughable. Bwahahahahaha
Yeah, 40 million put in from the Harris campaign
Someone must have figured out the extra 6 million overseas ballots flooding into states where the folks never lived but can vote online without a SocSec number... Rats cheat and have it down to a science... PotatoJoe told you they have the best fraud system ever built! ... ymmv
Agreed. I guess being on the defensive and even screwing up that good bit over the “garbage” comments really indicates a comeback, eh?
So its all B.S.
The ‘October’ surprise... Trump is calling for executions... This is what you’ll hear from the mainstream media all weekend long. No context, no actual story... Just the words ‘Trump calls for executions’.
Problem is more and more I’m convinced there are just too many blithering idiots in this country.
/s
I remember when they said that Clinton had a 98 percent chance of winning in 2016
probably driven by an investor or two that has knowledge of the level of vote fraud that is going to occur.
Well, with a new monthly jobs report of only 12,000 new jobs ( instead of 100,000) and a revision downward of -112,000 jobs glowingly claimed in 2 prior months…the enthusiasm for Harris must be over the top!
Some late dim polls have skewed the averages. I have yet to delve into the internals, but I would bet they are skewed as well.
Kamala got a bump after cnn put out a few bogus polls that were way outside the norm of every other poll on RCP
Or the wanker saying Trump will shut down porn
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