Posted on 11/01/2024 6:42:04 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
That’s how it is every year for Cowboys fans......................
Nope. There aren’t enough screaming single harpies in the world.
“Will scaremongering Abortion take the Presidency?”
That is the big question, IMO.
If abortion trumps everything else for GOP women voters, Kamala will win.
If not, and they stay loyal to the GOP, it us hard to envision a scenario where Trump loses - even with the massive cheating we know is occurring.
“There was no enthusiasm for Romney, it was just people who wanted to vote against Obama.”
Good point.
Yep
Called weighting. Pollster expects more dems are going to vote, more democrat responses are going to be reported
Rush talked about this a lot
Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics, and Polls
Now there are four kinds of lies
"Silver’s own vaunted model puts Trump ahead of Harris, 55% to 45%, as voters prepare to head to the polls in just three days."
Nate doesn’t even do polling now that he left 538.
He is into turning all the polls into aggregates and using them as betting lines in his new gig.
Like point spreads in football games, nothing is predictive of actual outcomes anymore, polls are defunct.
Let’s start with this. Nate Silver is a huge fraud. He was supposedly some gambling guru and failed so miserably at that that you would have lost money following his advice. He then decided to hop over into political polling. He’s miserably bad at that too.
Democrat push polls try to create a narrative that the Democrat is up big. They do this to discourage donations to the Republican and to try to discourage their voters from showing up aka voter suppression. When it gets closer to the election, they start getting closer to the truth in order to try to preserve their credibility for next time. Its really embarrassing when you say Biden is up 17% in Wisconsin and the race gets decided by less than 1%.
Better to wait until Wednesday morning
The night of the 2020 election, Trump was up a half-million votes
Watching TV, about 2 a.m., suddenly 10,000 votes switched from Trump to Biden. On the screen behind the talking head. Then the same thing happened. This went on all night, until Trump was behind 50,000 votes in the morning.
“Looks like Nate is still in the bag for Trump and is scolding the pollster liars for cooking their books.”
His accuracy that brought him to prominence came about because he had access to Obama’s internal polls.
I’ve got to believe he has access to Kamala’s as well. He is being careful not to say Trump is running away with it because he doesn’t want to alienate his Obama contacts, but he also wants to maintain his credibility, so he is dropping subtle hints.
You know if it was Kamala that was being underestimated, he would be screaming it from the rooftops.
i think he has priorities on different levels.
His top level priority I think is to be correct...
But underneath that first priority is to shill and advise the left.
So you’re not wrong....just that he, unlike many pollsters, prides himself in his polling accuracy.
I think you're absolutely right. Back in the day the polls seemed to be pretty accurate, but in today's cell phone climate I pay very little attention to them.
I don't answer my phone unless it's a call from someone on my Contacts list; others can leave a voicemail. I'd guess that millions of others do the same thing which makes it hard for pollsters to get accurate results.
“You know if it was Kamala that was being underestimated, he would be screaming it from the rooftops.”
I hadn’t thought about that...but damn.. You’re right.
Pollsters can say anything they want - it’s impossible or anyone to know. Zero transparency or accountability.
I am not as certain as you are. Trump is no longer under-polled like in 2016 or 2020. It is also possible that abortion voters will overwhelm the ballots and give Kamala a huge victory. At this point my money is on Harris.
Every woman I know is voting for Trump. I understand that's anecdotal, but I think we need to be more suspicious of the Democrat and MSM claim that a big majority of women are for Harris. Maybe the screamy, whiny GenZers are, but other women may lean toward Trump as much as men do.
I just finished the Rogan/ Vance podcast. Wow.
If 20 percent of his listeners pass to Vance, we’ve won.
It was worth listening too . 3 hours of the best interview ever. I’ve even come to the conclusion that God was responsible for the the loss of Trump /Pence ticket. He wanted Pence to be gone and 4 years of almost losing America, to make way for JD Vance. Screw the polls.
Well, pretty much everything else in America these days is fake, it’d be hard to think polling was the exception.
Thanks. I will need to see it
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