Posted on 10/30/2024 10:52:42 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top. Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests. In September, he went all-in on a Democratic win. “Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on September 5, deliberately before the supposed ‘pivotal’ Trump-Harris debate — according to the pundits — which proved to be pivotal not one bit if you believe the polls,” Lichtman explained during a live stream Tuesday. The prof revealed that he’s since been peppered with questions about whether he intends to switch his prediction in light of polls showing Trump edging in front of Harris in swing states. The RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump, 78, leading Harris, 60, by 0.4% nationwide as of noon Wednesday, all but ensuring a Republican Electoral College victory if it came to pass.
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“but lets say he does, he wins PA, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, can he win the election?”
Yes, that would be a Trump win. Just to mention, though, Trump did better both previous times in PA than he did in MI. It is certainly possible that he could win PA and still lose MI by a very small margin. WI was his strongest state, and the one he was most underpolled in, of the Blue Wall in both previous elections, so that would be a little surprising if he lost it but still won PA, but it isn’t impossible considering how much more money the Trump campaign has dumped into PA than WI.
Has the chickens and cows “commented” yet on the winner of the election?
You know, the chicken or cow ‘bingo’, where they feed the animal, and where it poops is who is going to win the election?
About as credible to me, unless he has some inside information about how much cheating the Harris/NoBalz campaign is going to do to win.
ONLY IF THEY STEAL IT. THEY ALWAYS STEAL. HEY DON’T CARE WHO KNOWS IT.
MOST FAMOUS CRIMINALS MUST BE PUT AWAY.
Yup. I think I am going to go about my day without checking the news, go to sleep, and see what happened the day after. The stupid party still thinks it can win the House and Senate with all the cheating. They need their heads examined.
Yes, there is some truth in that. You see a lot of that mystical thinking with stock trends. “sell in May” is one of those. Or the market always does this or that. Which is ridiculous. If we knew exactly no one would ever lose money.
Competitive: 2020, 2016, 2004, 2000
Not Really Competitive: 2012, 2008, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984
So he correctly predicted 3 out of 4 coin flips. The only prediction that really impresses me is the 2016 election.
CNN knows EXACTLY what they were doing with that ludicrous poll. They are gaming the betting markers and the rcp avarage.
it isn’t a flock of crows
it is a Murder of crows
(look it up)
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
11m
Hearing that internal polling in Michigan has Trump up 3, Mike Rogers up by 2...
Im telling ya I cant take it anymore LOL My stomach hurts
He’s an effin retard
I’m guessing he will be right considering the massive amount of cheating that is already going on; corrupt judges ruling people overseas can vote in any state they want without ever having been in the state and saying non-citizens must stay on voting rolls; cops and democrat poll workers inl PA hindering citizens trying to vote early and, democrats not allowing additional poll stations in NC after Helene destroyed others. Yup, and we probably haven’t seen anything yet and our court system is too corrupt and afraid to even take it on.
If he has the same track record of the original Nostradamus, he’s way wrong. The original Nostradamus didn’t predict a single thing although there are millions of people parsing the translations of his words to match events in retrospect with some success. However nothing Nostradamus said has successfully predicted any future event, only past events.
Exactly, incumbency is a wash or a Trump advantage, we have two incumbents with track records running. I don’t have time on my lunch hour to got through each, but his analysis is lacking.
He was wrong about two of the elections. In 2000 he predicted that Gore would win against Bush. He claimed that Gore actually did win the election but that the Supreme Court reversed the win without justification. However, an audit of ballots by the WaPo and NYT confirmed that Bush actually did win Florida. In 2016, he predicted that Trump would win the popular vote as well as the electoral college, so his “model” clearly has issues. He has been inconsistent over the years on the issue of whether his model is geared to predicting the popular vote or the electoral college. There is a good critique of his model in Wikipedia “The Keys to the White House.” A major criticism is the subjective nature of the “keys.” Specifically, it is argued that different analysts could apply the model and come up with different predictions.
Trump can win with only Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, which gets him to 270-
Its’s run by Democrats
My brain freeze I forgot about NC..so if Trump wins NC, Georegia and PA he wins..and I know he is going to win Arizona because the majority of polls show Trump up 6 heck even Fox News pretty much put Arizona in Trumps camp
The Sopranos - “Quasimodo predicted it.”
This guy wrote a book on Impeaching Trump. Hardly a non biased source.
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