Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Wait -- Trump Leads Indies By *How* Much in New Marist Poll?
Hotair ^ | 10/16/2024 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/16/2024 8:50:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Strange things are afoot at the Marist Circle-K. 

On our earlier post on polling and trendlines, a couple of commenters pointed out that the RCP average lead for Kamala Harris increased slightly today after a couple of new national polls dropped. One of these, Marquette Law, shows the national race a dead heat at 50/50. The other, however, came from Marist and shows Harris with a five-point lead and a majority at 52/47. Their previous two iterations put Harris up by 2 at the end of September, and by one at the beginning of the same month:

Harris (52%) leads Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) among likely voters.

That does look like momentum. Except for this one small problem, that is:

#New General election poll - Independents

🔴 Trump 54% (+10)
🔵 Harris 44%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +4

Marist #A+ - 363 LV - 10/10— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 16, 2024

Trump (54%) leads Harris (44%) among independents who are likely to vote, widening the 4-point edge Trump (50%) had against Harris (46%) previously.

Er ... wut? Trump gained six points among independents, and yet lost three points in the topline gap? How is that possible? 

Answer: It's not. Something very strange is definitely afoot in this latest iteration. Is it the sample? Could be. Today's D/R/I split among likely voters is an eye-popping D+7 (40/33/26), which is pretty far off from the R+3 that Gallup sees this cycle (48/45, but with leaners). The previous survey's LV split was 37/34/28, but then again, the early September iteration's LV split was 40/35/24. Marist suggests that they are weighting for demographic imbalance, but if so, perhaps not well enough. 

We won't bother unskewing the poll, which is a fool's errand. Suffice it to say that an LV model in this cycle that uses 40% Democrats is hardly reliable for predictive value. The result of that appears to be an overstatement of Democrat voter intent and a significant understatement of independent voter impact on the poll. The statistically significant shift of support for Trump in even the relatively decent sample of independents (363 respondents) provides a much clearer picture of the trend in this cycle, and that matches up well with what we see in other polls.

One final note: Marist will likely have a final entry in the poll market in two weeks. The sample on that survey will be very interesting to see, especially with their final iteration serving as the measure of their reliability in future polling. 



TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

1 posted on 10/16/2024 8:50:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Indies - I thought, they’re polling Trinidad and Haiti?


2 posted on 10/16/2024 8:52:04 PM PDT by heartwood (If you're looking for the /sarc tag, you just passed it..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

“The other, however, came from Marist and shows Harris with a five-point lead and a majority at 52/47.”

They forgot the X in Marist.


3 posted on 10/16/2024 8:54:34 PM PDT by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2024... RETURN OF THE JEDI. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The proof that this poll is a complete and total fraud is that 7% more Dems than Repubs were polled, which might be valid if the entire poll was conducted in W. Hollywood.


4 posted on 10/16/2024 8:58:35 PM PDT by Signalman (I am not a snob. Ask anyone who matters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Time to go to sleep. Once again, I see “Marist” as “Marxist”.


5 posted on 10/16/2024 9:09:39 PM PDT by CatOwner (Don't expect anyone, even conservatives, to have your back when the SHTF in 2021 and beyond.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This marist poll stinks. That big a lead amongst indies but still losing? Smells like a duece poll


6 posted on 10/16/2024 10:08:50 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Oh, goodie! A Marist poll. Leftist catholic shitbucket “poured out for you”, in other words. Nothing comes out of Marist but leftist push-polls.


7 posted on 10/16/2024 10:14:09 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

>> Time to go to sleep. Once again, I see “Marist” as “Marxist”.

You’re right on! Sweet dreams.


8 posted on 10/16/2024 10:15:18 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Exactly.


9 posted on 10/16/2024 11:24:35 PM PDT by No name given ( Anonymous is who you’ll know me as )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Marist is the Marxist polling entity. Enough said.


10 posted on 10/17/2024 12:06:40 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Robert DeLong

At this point, it doesn’t matter guys Kamala is going down something that she does best. From here on in it’s nothing more than guys piling on a gang tackle.Which she deserves in spades.


11 posted on 10/17/2024 1:03:07 AM PDT by magua (It's not racism, it's just that thisBecause it’s being reported that a lot of this started in 2015.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

Yeah I was righting this and saw the same MARIST as MARXIST.

Man I hate being lied to by the MSM, Big Tech, and communists in general but this is what we are getting for team Obama 4.0:
Harris is half Brahmin high caste Indian, one-quarter Irish, and one-quarter mixed race Jamaican (her father claims is Indian). Her father recorded “Caucasian” on her birth certificate. She was raised in upscale Berkeley and Montréal, Canada, by her non-American Marxist academia parents.


12 posted on 10/17/2024 1:03:37 AM PDT by jdt1138 (Where ever you go, there you are.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: magua

She is no loner the desirable, to some, young practitioner of utilizing her feminine wiles on willing eager males. 🤣


13 posted on 10/17/2024 1:19:05 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The Margins of Error are a lot bigger than most people think on these polls. And even then it’s important to remember that the Actual Population results are going to be outside of the Margin of Error about 5% of the time. This is how Statistics and population sampling works. And even then this assumes that the sampling is done with complete randomness and success in getting a well representative sample of a population that is a normalized bell curve.


14 posted on 10/17/2024 1:48:08 AM PDT by Degaston
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Still not near the truth. Civiqs.com has independent unfavorable/favorable rating of Comrade Harris 60/34 and trending bigger.
All of this fake talk about independents favoring Comrade Harris is just that fake talk because they are independent they are easy to lie about since neither side can easily find them.


15 posted on 10/17/2024 3:32:15 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Er ... wut? Trump gained six points among independents, and yet lost three points in the topline gap? How is that possible?

It is not possible. This is (a) trying to discourage Trump voters and (b) setting up to rig the election. Period.

16 posted on 10/17/2024 4:47:28 AM PDT by piytar (Remember Ashli Babbitt, Rosanne Boyland, and Corey Comperatore!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Even Fox is now showing Trump ahead nationally 50-48.


17 posted on 10/17/2024 6:11:52 AM PDT by Dan in Wichita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DesertRhino

Or change the “r” to an “o.”


18 posted on 10/17/2024 6:39:44 AM PDT by Disambiguator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Dan in Wichita

Even if Trump were to win the presidency, there’s another wrinkle to think about — Trump might not have a friendly lower house. The Democrats seems slated to take over Congress.


19 posted on 10/17/2024 6:48:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

If Trump wins, the R’s hold the House. I’ll bet money on that.


20 posted on 10/17/2024 6:59:18 AM PDT by Dan in Wichita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson