Posted on 10/09/2024 7:24:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Citing conventional wisdom or an "appeal to authority" will reach out and bite you every time. The proverbial "appeal to authority" in an argument only works when the "authority" is credible.
The conventional wisdom that the 2024 presidential race is razor-close is based on polls. Frankly, pollsters themselves are warning us not to trust their work.
“There are a lot of sh***y polls out there,” said John Anzalone, who has done polling work for Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. And, added Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster, many hardcore Donald Trump voters aren't responding to polls at all, especially online polls.
Since the polling fiasco of 2016, pollsters have been playing catchup. They've tried different means to contact voters, including landlines, cell phones, texts, and door-to-door. It's not just Trump voters who are avoiding pollsters. Blacks, young women, and Latinos are also refusing the call of pollsters, thus skewing polls even more.
The bottom line is that what was once considered statistical analysis has now devolved into something little better than educated guessing. How to "weight" answers to create an accurate picture of the electorate has never been dicier.
So we have all these polls purporting to show a close race. But what happens if it isn't really close? What if one candidate or the other is actually far ahead?
Conrad Black, writing in the New York Sun, points out the obvious but something most pundits neglect in their analysis of polls, especially national polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
From Conrad Black:
[EXCERPT]
As I have mentioned here before, this means that if allowance is made for the fact that the Democrats carry California and New York (82 electoral votes) by almost 5 million more votes than the Republicans comfortably carry Texas, Florida, and Tennessee (81 electoral votes), Trump is leading by about 8 million votes in the other 45 states.
Most of the swing states are close but Trump is almost always underestimated, and he does have the momentum. An increasing number of commentators, most recently Megyn Kelly, have pulled the curtain back and flatly stated the obvious that the Democratic presidential candidate is someone about whom two-thirds of Americans were embarrassed as vice president two months ago.
And she is just as hapless as her outgoing president without a teleprompter and without the excuse of age that should be accorded to Mr. Biden. This should not be a close election and only the Democratic stranglehold on the morally bankrupt majority of the national political press make it seem close.
With pollsters still unable to get an accurate head count of Trump voters, national polls are unreliable. State polls are a little less so, meaning that in battleground states, undercounting Trump’s support is a more manageable problem for pollsters due to the smaller data set.
No polling, good or bad, can overcome Marxist ‘RAT cheating.
“There are a lot of sh***y polls out there,”
They ALL are IMO.
Polling should be illegal as it’s now being used for nefarious purposes.
IIRC the polls in both ‘16 and ‘20 underestimated DJT’s results by a noteworthy margin.It’s certainly reasonable to assume that the same is true this year.
Think of when Ferdinand Marcos lost to Bennie Aquino. How did that turn out?
Pollsters have said they have corrected those underestimates by using those as a reference.
When they lose, the Leftists are going to burn their cities.
I sure hope FEMA has money to spend on recovering from that disaster.
So you want to set aside the First Amendment, too, just like the Leftist statists, in order to address "disinformation" which you oppose. Got it.
Yah,sure...pull the other one,it’s got bells on.
The sole purpose of “Polls” is to get an estimate of how many Fake Ballots to print for the “Mail-In” cheating to have stock-piled.....a low estimate risks having to print MORE, and be caught.
Any opinions or knowledge on these hurricanes destroying states? Is weather manipulated? Just before the election.. In red states?
Part of N Carolina has been washed away.. FL has the worst hurricane. Ever.. At their door.
Biden gave all to Ukraine.. He said none to Americans from storm. Some tried to get food to the area, and helicopter flew close enough to blow the help to smithereens.
It’s obvious that polls are simply a propaganda tool. All it takes is a computer program to generate the desired outcome with algorithms that will fabricate the “internnals” to match.
You don’t even need AI, but with AI the fraud becomes undetectable.
What counts are the electoral votes.
Even if the Republican states would have every single vote given to Trump, the next president will be determined by a relative few “swing states,” many of which have Demonicrat-controlled state, county, and city election officials, known for their lax views on how Demonicrat final vote tallies are to be processed.
I really don’t understand you Never Trump people, who seem to take joy in the same kneejerk, yet insipid, comments.
I honestly don’t think the steal will work this time, needing, as they will I think, to keep the voting going for days in not just 4 or 5 states, but twice or 3 times that number.
It's, as they like to say, "misinformation." But the really genuine kind.
I have a son near Orlando.. Have not heard this morning.. Maybe power out.
Weather is saying this one is bad.
NC and Florida polls will be useless. People will be displaced. Mostly Republican voters.
My daughter works with veterans.. There is only so much patience and tolerance, until they have had enough.
You have to give out your email address to do that. No thanks, I get enough spam as it is now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.