Posted on 09/29/2024 6:20:15 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in five key swing states, according to a recent poll.
A poll conducted by AtlasIntel between September 20-25, 2024, found that Trump was leading Harris among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona. In Nevada and North Carolina, Harris was found to be leading Trump.
In Pennsylvania, Trump received 51 percent of support among likely voters, while Harris received 48.1 percent of support.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I have taken a poll of 1500 likely voters in each of the seven swing states and it shows Trump up by at least 11 points in every state.
Convince me that my polling is less accurate than the polls from these other never-heard-of polling organizations.
If these other polls are so accurate, why do the campaigns have their own internal polls?
I DON’T believe it.
A look at Atlas turnout model
Penn They sampled 9% black. That is an undersample.
And 6.2% Hispanic, also slightly undersampled.
D/R/I 45/37/17 this looks like a Dem oversample, especially with recent GOP registration gains. Probably under sample of Independents.
Women/Men 50/48.7/1.2(other) Probably in line with norms.
Overall this Penn sample looks like it averages out the over and undersamples.
Hitting the important items:
Wisconsin has a surprising Woman/Man turnout model of 54/45. This is at least a bit credible. Farmers may be harvesting rather than voting. But it looks like an oversample. Blacks undersampled about 1% at 6.4%. Does NOT register by party.
North Carolina D/R/I is 29/35/36. She leads with Independents. Black 17%. This looks like an undersample. 53.5/46.5 college degree vs none. This looks like an oversample.
Michigan Woman/Man 52/47 slight oversample of women. D/R/I 29/33/38. Michigan does NOT register by party. Cannot compare to registration data. Atlas seems to be the only pollster who read the Forbes January survey showing Independents ascendant. Blacks 15%, that’s an oversample.
CollegeDeg/None 60/40 clearly an oversample of degreed (these break for Harris).
Georgia sample was 26% black, this is close to the 30% of total population, maybe slight undersample. D/R/I 32/36/31 perhaps a very small undersample of R and I. Woman/Men 55/44 clearly an oversample of women. The Trump +0.3% looks inaccurately low in GA, not by much.
Then there is the poll about North Carolina.
Note above I said “She leads with Independents”. That was only in that one state. It’s not a norm.
The critical item now is to stop the Big Cheat in all of these battleground States.
Fraudulent ballots must be stopped before they can be counted. It is too late afterwards.
Counts must be accurate and without fraud. Direct supervision is needed.
It is too late to do lawsuits after an election. The courts are corrupt or too cowardly and offer no remedies for election fraud.
“ Yes, the Demonicrats and their DeepState supporters are that evil.”
They passed that evil a good 20 years ago. They are well beyond that now.
And one more time, people. Fraud and cheat and whatever are irrelevant topics for polling. There is no ballot flooding or harvesting with polls. They call and get results. Period.
So it’s not relevant to polling.
Also, and maybe more important, all these numbers are within the MOE. Celebrating a 1% lead is silly as is hating a 1% trail.
If you live in one of these states and you care, call Lara Trump’s RNC and find out where they need you to harvest ballots from veteran nursing homes. Then actually go do it.
Women outvote men by about 20% in most States. A sample ratio 55/44 gives women a modelled rate of 25%, which is a slight oversample.
But a majority of women will not go for Trump. He will get about 48% of the female vote at best. His reelection depends on men turning out to vote.
And suppressing the Big Cheat.
Women outnumber men. It’s not a matter of turnout. They live longer by 4 yrs. There are more of them to turnout and modeling must necessarily reflect that.
It’s far more than last cycle’s exit sampling. It’s sheer existence. That is the source of the typical 52/47.5 exit results. The 55/44 model is clearly an oversample.
Morning Consult’s huge sample size has no value.
Their turnout model, like all turnout models, define the result. It doesn’t matter how many samples they take. The center of whatever MOE they achieve . . . the midpoint . . . is still defined by turnout model.
My recall is I tried to get a look at theirs and it is paywalled.
True. And the percentage of women who vote is higher than the percentage of men who vote. That is the double impulse which leads the modelers to "oversample" women. They are not entirely wrong IMO.
On the other hand, Blacks at 13% of the general population cannot be sampled at 30% of a polling population with any validity at all. And Blacks vote at a much lower rate than Whites or Hispanics, or Asians.
Unless you count places like Philidelphia or Detroit, where Black "voter turnout" regularly exceeds 150% or even 300% of the registered voters in selected precincts. There aren't polling models which account for blatant election fraud.
These polls are contrary to other polls, therefore, I believe none of them.
I agree.
The critical factor would be polls reflecting the populations of six "battleground" States. If we had honest elections, those polls would be the ones to watch. The other States are already decided. Polls from California or New York do not matter at all.
But we do not have honest elections in any of those six battleground States. We have a Democrat "margin-of-cheat" that can be expanded as needed to provide a Democrat win. Or maybe not. Every effort has limits.
The critical factor for Republicans is to block the Big Cheat before the fraudulent ballots are counted. Whining about it afterwards is too late.
Cheating with ballots eventually leads to voting with bullets.
A few days ago I looked at the individual battleground states last polls of the 2020 election. I then took the current polls of the pollsters who were off by less than 5 points for each state. I came out with the following: AZ Trump by 1.25; MI Trump by 0.50; NC Trump by 1.33; NV Harris by 0.50; GA Trump by 3; PA Trump by 1.00. I was not able to do WI because no one came close enough.
The pollsters I ended up using the most were Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage and Emerson.
The stupid Bloomberg Polls are skewing the RCP averages. I’m waiting for Trafalgar’s current Battleground state polls.
Re blacks voting with poor turnout.
This is just not true at all. No idea where you got that data.
ChatGPT quotes black voter turnout of 66% for Obama’s election. Down to 60% 2016. This is approximately equal to the overall voter turnout for those years. This excludes midterms where numbers like 40% overall turnout are possible.
2020 was a year with the installation of VBM because of the virus. And urban blacks (most of them) did not want to be around people — because of the virus. Their turnout fell from Obama’s 66% to 60% (2020) with overall all races turnout 66% (because of VBM).
Black vote has typically tracked the overall number with some candidate determined variance but generally 60%, like the whole population.
They are not consistently low. This is actually good. It leaves fewer such votes to mine in these final days.
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