Posted on 09/24/2024 7:19:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There may be a big shift underway. Over the last couple of days, there has been some real movement in some of the polls back to former President Donald Trump. The reality of Kamala Harris's emptiness seems to be setting in, and it looks like her avoidance of questions may now be backfiring on her.
We just saw the recent NYT/Siena College Poll and the Emerson College polls. Those were already showing some good numbers for Trump, with NYT showing him up by 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia, and 2 in North Carolina. Then Emerson has Trump up in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, tied in Nevada, with Harris ahead in NC and MI. If that holds, Trump wins.
READ MORE: First NYT/Siena, Now Even More Polling That's Going to Make the Harris Team Lose Their Minds
Now there's the Quinnipiac poll, a poll that has a devastating result for Harris. It has Trump in the lead in the national vote.
🇺🇲 National poll by Quinnipiac
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
Last poll (8/27) - 🔵 Harris +1
——
• #19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,728 LV | 9/19-22
• Party ID: D32/R30 | MoE: ±2.4%
https://t.co/hFirxxVyz8 pic.twitter.com/riTdCczwX8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024
It's moved two points in Trump's direction. In August, Harris was up 1 point. Now, Trump is up by 1, 48 to 47 among likely voters in the full-field race. If he's up by one in the popular vote, that spells good news for the Electoral College. And that's with a slightly greater percentage of Democrats than Republicans in the poll.
Now, in general, I don't like this poll. I feel that they've erred in the past, favoring Democrats, but I point it out because when even this poll seems to be going in this direction, the movement is hard to deny.
If you look at the cross tabs, it's even worse for Harris. Among independents, Trump is up 47 to 44. Even the enthusiasm has dropped for Harris since August among Democrats, going down 5 points from 75 to 70 percent. The reality is starting to set in with her. Meanwhile, the enthusiasm for Trump has gone up 3 points since August. The respondents even said he cared more about the needs of people like them 49 to 48 percent over Harris.
Here's her downfall. On the top issues, the economy and immigration, Trump tops Harris by 7 and 8 points, respectively, and most think Trump would do better handling a crisis, 51 to 47.
But there's at least one thing in the cross tabs that doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. It says that Trump is winning white voters by 4 percent, 50 to 46 percent, and Hispanics by 8 percent, 52 to 44 percent. If Trump were winning with those by that much, it would seem he'd be winning the top line by more than 1 percent. So that seems off, and it seems like it should be even worse for Harris. Plus, while I think Trump is doing well with Hispanics, I'm not sure I believe that number with only 50 percent then with the white vote.
The poll also gives what may end up being a warning: 74 percent of Democrats would be "very upset" if Harris lost.
For perspective, Quinnipiac had Biden up by ten at this same point (off the final result by 5.5 percent).
There has been a stretch of polls for the past few days have not been good for Kamala Harris. Here's another.
Quinnipiac is 2020 had Biden winning by 10+...
https://t.co/TSfvRrr5sV— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) September 24, 2024
READ MORE: Scott Jennings and Former CBP Chief Nuke Harris'
Latest Desperate Border Move
Trump Torches Harris Over Planned Visit to Southern Border She Has Ignored for Years
No wonder Kamala wants another debate and is planning, finally, on going to the border for only the second time since she's occupied office.
Harris is damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t. When she hides from the press it hurts her and when she talks to the press (such as it is) it hurts her.
I don’t call 1% exactly devastating.
Tell that to Hillary. She was 3-5 points ahead in most polls in 2016 on Election Day and still lost to Trump.
When you understand how far to the left Quinnipiac polls tend to lean then you wouldn’t say that
For reference they are normally about 4 to 5 points overestimating the Democrat
Cherry picking. This is the only major poll showing Trump ahead. Several others show Harris ahead.
Headlines with Harris with 1 point lead: "New national poll shows Harris taking lead over Trump.
Headlines with Trump taking 1 point lead: "New national poll shows a tightening race."
If Trump is truly ahead 1% nationally then Harris is in very bad shape.
They had Biden 51-41 over Trump two weeks before 2020 general.
In other words, the polls must move in the direction of reality between now and Nov 5 in order to preserver some semblance of credibility.
They are left wing fanatics and a total doofus poll. Kameltoe should be up seven with these boosters.
Considering it’s a national poll, all that’s needed is CA and NY. That’s why the poll must be more than one percent to be realistic.
One percent in a national is devastating for a Dim.
Considering it’s a national poll, all that’s needed is CA and NY. That’s why the poll must be more than one percent to be realistic.
One percent in a national is devastating for a Dim.
Sorry, and I may be wrong.
She doesn’t have to beat the polls... We have to beat the steal.
Nope. No way 65+ votes Harris by such a huge number. In fact those two numbers should be reversed in my opinion.
Do you actually believe the polls? That it's 1% ? I sure don't.
Rasmussen
Margins of Error mean randomness.
These polls today moved Trumpward within the MOE, and that means they didn’t move at all.
We have seen several do this. Unless they all have adjusted their turnout models . . . and that IS possible, then the movement is to small to declare any minds have changed.
NY times, Emerson too I think. ABC has her winning by a comfortable margin. This isn’t cherry picking, it’s just reporting on a poll. Even the ones that favor her are moving away from her. Polls are trash to me. Her asking for another debate is more revealing to how they feel things are going. Rocking the boat does nothing to help her if she’s on a glide path to victory.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
