Posted on 09/18/2024 2:27:46 PM PDT by grumpa
Source: Leading Report on X
Teamsters’ member polling gives Trump an overwhelming lead over Harris 59.7% to 34.0% (9/18/2024).
Electoral College results via RealClearPolitics show Trump flipping Pennsylvania and beating Harris after new polls 281 to 257 (9/17/2024).
New Electoral College model, according to Nate Silver (“no tossup”) Trump 312 to Harris 226 (9/16/2024).
If they cheat, they’ll have to do it in even more obvious, blatant, and in-your-face ways than they did in 2020. Lots of broken steam pipes and cities with 120% turnout rates.
If Real Clear Politics includes the phony Quinnipiac poll that came out today, they’ll flip PA back to Harris.
Every election cycle, Quinnipiac has been by far the most inaccurate “pollsters” of them all, so I know what you mean.
Thank you. I’m suspecting a significant number of Trump voters remain silent. The same thing was true of the Reagan vote in 1980 up to the week before the election.
RCP should ignore the outliers on both ends of the spectrum when averaging polls.
312 would be incredible. The road to the WH leads through PA, assuming all else is on the up and up. But if you can get to 312, you can afford to lose PA. You’d still have 293. Seems Trump has a lot more paths than Harris.
RCP average is BS. They include all kinds of crap polls in the mix, registered voter polls, over-sampled polls etc. I agree they need to qualify the polls they include better. Eliminating the outliers, like many statisticians do, would be a good start.
Amen. So be it.
Yes, you are correct. Also, a lot of these dem tilting polling companies that want to save face and credibility typically will move towards reality with more accuracy closer to the election hoping to be able to say “see? we told you so” after the election.
Saw a poll on X today “Crown List” or some such. Trump by 2%. The interesting line was the R support for Trump and D support for Harris. Him at 91%, her at 94%. Very little difference considering all the Wahh-Wahh about it among Republicans.
“If they cheat, they’ll have to do it in even more obvious, blatant, and in-your-face ways than they did in 2020. Lots of broken steam pipes and cities with 120% turnout rates.”
Oh man. “IF”
“If they cheat?”
What?
The other question is
Why would you doubt they’ll be blatant about it?
What do you mean, IF? WHEN they cheat is what you should say.
“RCP average is BS. They include all kinds of crap polls in the mix”
I totally agree with you on that.
North Carolina is beginning to be worrisome.
There have been some tidbits of information resulting in good news for Trump. The Teamsters Union is one of them.
This post is useless, provides a link to an “X” rabbit hole where nothing on the link has anything to do with the headline of the post.
scroll how far down? F twitter, can no one write a coherent sentence anymore? How much of someone else’s garbage am I supposed to scroll through to find Nate Silver’s latest forecast? which probably isn’t there.
The 2020 census undercounted population in red states, it was proabably an honest mistake( wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Even 2 or 3 extra house seats in red states, meaning two or three extra electoral votes would have made a big difference. This would mean that Trump wouldn’t need Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania if he flipped GA-AZ-NV this election.
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