The MSM polls must be fraudulently (as required) fabricated as close as needed to pull off the steal.
Posted on 09/16/2024 6:23:55 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ current national lead over former President Donald Trump is too slim to signal a likely victory in the November election due to the electoral college.
Harris’ national lead over Trump grew by just a single point following their debate last week, despite a majority of viewers believing she won, according to ABC News/Ipsos data released on Sunday. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted Harris’ 2.5-point lead in his polling aggregate gives her roughly a 50% chance of winning.
“Okay, so basically, you note that 2.5-point lead nationally here, right? Okay, Harris’ chances if she wins the popular vote by two to three points, the chance she wins the electoral college is only 53%. The bottom line is … you have to get all the way north to about three to four points for Harris to have a clear, clear, clear chance,” Enten told host John Berman. “The majority, the clear majority chance of winning the electoral college. If she only wins by less than two, look at that, only a 23% chance of winning … Harris is right now in that danger zone where, basically, about half the time, given that popular vote margin nationally, she would win.”
“And so here’s the situation: chance Harris wins the popular vote at this point is about 70%, but the chance she wins the electoral college is only about 50%. So the bottom line is, at this hour, John, there‘s about a 20% chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but actually loses in the electoral college,” he added. “So we could be heading towards one of these splits that we saw in 2016 and in 2000, whereby one candidate, Kamala Harris, wins in the popular vote but loses in the electoral college.”
Moreover, Harris only has a 1.7% lead over Trump nationally and just a 0.2% advantage in the top seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics averages of recent polls.
“Basically, at this hour, we’re right in that sort of weird middle zone where we honestly don’t know what‘s going to happen based upon the popular vote,” Enten said. “And that is why those national polls that show Kamala Harris ahead, at this point, really don’t matter that much.”
Enten noted recently that the presidential race is so “tight” that Trump will secure an electoral college victory if he “outperforms his current polls by just a single point.”
Given that Trump usually outperforms his polling numbers, and that many current polls are likely pumping up Harris's support, I believe it is a given that Trump will outperform his current polls by significantly more than a "single point." And if CommieLa falls on her face before Election Day, Trump may well run away with the electoral college count.
So not only does she own a gun, she’s flies F-14 Tomcats.
There is very little comment on the fact that Trump’s polling numbers are better than they have ever been in the three elections
“There is very little comment on the fact that Trump’s polling numbers are better than they have ever been in the three elections”
That’s an excellent point. Real Clear Politics will sometimes show the polling spread between the current candidates and compare it to past presidential races. As you say, Trump is polling better at this point in the race with Harris than he was at this point in his campaign against the Hildebeest.
I feel confident that Trump will win on Election Day. And I’m trying not to be a “Debbie Downer,” but knowing what the Dims pulled four years ago in the wee hours after Election Day I’m not convinced the Repugnants have done enough to counteract another round of fraud.
Other more historically accurate polls show her behind nationally.
If only by 5,000 to 10,000 votes, Trump will lose those states. In most cases, 50,000 votes won't be enough.
Also,DJT outperformed the polling numbers by a substantial margin in both ‘16 *and* ‘20. IOW,pollsters like the ones at the NY Times and MSLSD are known to poll 45% democrats to 30% Republicans.
Notice that the MSM won’t mention that President Trump will get yet another bump from this last assassination attempt. It’s over for the commies at least a few years.
I still believe that COVID created a unique fraud window that is smaller than it was in 2020.
There will absolutely be fraud but I think it will be less.
Moreover, there is serious efforts to increase Republican voter registration and republican voting in the six battleground states.
If there is any extra effort legally to constrain the democratic fraud activity which there is already some evidence of
This election may have voter turnout of 105% +\- of registered voters.
I recall such happened in Minnesota a couple of years ago in a state election.
“Also,DJT outperformed the polling numbers by a substantial margin in both ‘16 *and* ‘20.”
I believe that is correct. Given the current numbers, I believe Trump is ahead right now. Whether ahead enough to overcome shenanigans in Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and other hotbeds of vote manipulation, I don’t know.
“Notice that the MSM won’t mention that President Trump will get yet another bump from this last assassination attempt. It’s over for the commies at least a few years.”
From your lips to God’s ears.
“I still believe that COVID created a unique fraud window that is smaller than it was in 2020.
“There will absolutely be fraud but I think it will be less.
“Moreover, there is serious efforts to increase Republican voter registration and republican voting in the six battleground states.”
Very good points.
They wouldn't still be trying to murder Trump if the nitwit Kamala was ahead.
The deep state needs people to believe it is close so they can make a cheat look believable.
Opus?
All good points for sure. Another big factor might be that Trump wasn't aware of or underestimated how much Republicans collude with Democrats at all levels. I think he's installed loyalists in many key positions in the Republican party which should help as well.
Here in Michigan all I hear are adds for the witch. I dont remember this many adds for Biden in 2020. It is non stop.
Her polling must be terrible here in Michigan.
I see a lot of Trump yard signs. More so than last time. But I am in a area that votes 60%+ for Republicans. So it could just be the base is rock solid in supporting Trump.
Presupposes a fair election
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