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Polymarket: Kamala 50% - Trump 49% - $906 Million In Total Betting Volume
Polymarket ^ | 14 September 2024

Posted on 09/14/2024 3:16:59 PM PDT by zeestephen

Individual state betting: Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona...In Nevada, Trump 50% - Kamala 50%...Please remember...these are NOT voter polls...These are "Gambling Money" polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: betting; chat; concerntrolling; polymarket
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1 posted on 09/14/2024 3:16:59 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

Was watching Arkansas State-Michigan on the Big Ten network earlier. President Trump was running some killer ads.


2 posted on 09/14/2024 3:20:50 PM PDT by God luvs America (6young 3.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: zeestephen

Will the switcheroo succeed?


3 posted on 09/14/2024 3:30:11 PM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: Ge0ffrey
Will the switcheroo succeed?

What do you believe has changed in the election system in the past 4 years?
4 posted on 09/14/2024 3:32:46 PM PDT by TexasGunLover
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To: zeestephen

Election Betting Odds

by Maxim Lott and John Stossel is a nice site to cover most of the betting.
5 posted on 09/14/2024 3:33:06 PM PDT by Theoria
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To: zeestephen

Not good.


6 posted on 09/14/2024 3:42:49 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: zeestephen

Its all lies Harris is stuck at 47-48% see real poll here https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1835078055888306507

it as been that way for months people are not buying MSM propaganda...expect here to get about 46% of the vote and Trump just above 50%+...BOOKMARK THIS.

Side note she Harris may even get 43% (due to response bias in polls) of real votes.


7 posted on 09/14/2024 3:46:08 PM PDT by bte
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To: zeestephen

Also — at that link was this —

Senate - Republican control 76%

House - Dem control 63%


8 posted on 09/14/2024 3:55:00 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: zeestephen

Beting markets are not predictive early on, they are influenced by TV coverage, E.g it was 69% in favor of Clinton at this point in time in 2016 and yes they said it was a decisive Clinton win in the debates


9 posted on 09/14/2024 4:01:43 PM PDT by TECTopcat
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To: bte

Keep in mind this is a state by state vote securing the
electoral votes. Not popular vote as the total.


10 posted on 09/14/2024 4:02:17 PM PDT by deport
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To: TECTopcat

*Betting markets are not predictive early on, they are influenced by TV coverage, E.g it was 69% in favor of Clinton at this point in time in 2016 and yes they said it was a decisive Clinton win in the debates


11 posted on 09/14/2024 4:03:38 PM PDT by TECTopcat
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To: bte
Re: "All lies - Harris stuck at 47%-48%"

I disagree.

Thanks to massive LEGAL immigration, the GOP is a minority Party.

The GOP Presidential candidate has won a Popular Vote majority just one time in the last eight elections.

GW Bush got 50.7% in his 2004 reelection.

Kamala Harris - even with no voter fraud - will easily get past 50% of the Popular Vote.

12 posted on 09/14/2024 4:07:33 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: zeestephen

The betting markets were changed the most (compared to polls) during and after the debate for CommieLa. Funny how halfway through the debate there was already a large swing. Was it Soros or some other rich commie trying to make it look like she crushed Trump in the debates?


13 posted on 09/14/2024 4:12:01 PM PDT by willk (Local news media. Just as big an enemy to this country as national media)
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To: bte

What is that poll? Never heard of them.


14 posted on 09/14/2024 4:13:40 PM PDT by willk (Local news media. Just as big an enemy to this country as national media)
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To: zeestephen

Betters are well aware of the election fraud factor.


15 posted on 09/14/2024 4:13:46 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: TECTopcat
Re: "Hillary at 69% at this point in 2016"

Election Day 2016 was even worse - Hillary at 80%.

Please remember...

These numbers are NOT voter polls.

They are Gambling Money polls.

I always ask - did you know anyone who predicted Trump would win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016?

I did not know anyone who predicted that.

16 posted on 09/14/2024 4:19:12 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: God luvs America

Michigan has no quarterback man they are rough


17 posted on 09/14/2024 4:19:37 PM PDT by Lod881019
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To: zeestephen

I stopped giving the betting markets the time of day when they had Hillary at 80% going into election day 2016. Contrary to popular belief the “big money” doesn’t have any insider knowledge or special prediction ability, they just go with whatever the media’s conventional wisdom is, even if that “conventional wisdom” is more just wishful thinking.


18 posted on 09/14/2024 4:22:54 PM PDT by apillar
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To: willk
Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world - almost $1 billion on this election.

The other prediction markets are not even close to that.

19 posted on 09/14/2024 4:26:46 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: apillar

If you think the betting markets are just based on wishful thinking, then there’s an opportunity here. You have positive expected value (in the long run, you’ll make money) if you identify which way the wishful thinking is going and bet the opposite way.

What do you think are fair odds on this election? Polymarket has the two candidates close to even. If you think one is actually a significant favorite, go ahead and bet it. (Smart gamblers might well bet on the candidate they dislike. Smart gamblers can distinguish between “What I think OUGHT to happen” and “What I think WILL happen.”)


20 posted on 09/14/2024 4:48:33 PM PDT by Eagle Forgotten
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