Posted on 09/14/2024 3:16:59 PM PDT by zeestephen
Individual state betting: Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona...In Nevada, Trump 50% - Kamala 50%...Please remember...these are NOT voter polls...These are "Gambling Money" polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...
Was watching Arkansas State-Michigan on the Big Ten network earlier. President Trump was running some killer ads.
Will the switcheroo succeed?
Not good.
Its all lies Harris is stuck at 47-48% see real poll here https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1835078055888306507
it as been that way for months people are not buying MSM propaganda...expect here to get about 46% of the vote and Trump just above 50%+...BOOKMARK THIS.
Side note she Harris may even get 43% (due to response bias in polls) of real votes.
Also — at that link was this —
Senate - Republican control 76%
House - Dem control 63%
Beting markets are not predictive early on, they are influenced by TV coverage, E.g it was 69% in favor of Clinton at this point in time in 2016 and yes they said it was a decisive Clinton win in the debates
Keep in mind this is a state by state vote securing the
electoral votes. Not popular vote as the total.
*Betting markets are not predictive early on, they are influenced by TV coverage, E.g it was 69% in favor of Clinton at this point in time in 2016 and yes they said it was a decisive Clinton win in the debates
I disagree.
Thanks to massive LEGAL immigration, the GOP is a minority Party.
The GOP Presidential candidate has won a Popular Vote majority just one time in the last eight elections.
GW Bush got 50.7% in his 2004 reelection.
Kamala Harris - even with no voter fraud - will easily get past 50% of the Popular Vote.
The betting markets were changed the most (compared to polls) during and after the debate for CommieLa. Funny how halfway through the debate there was already a large swing. Was it Soros or some other rich commie trying to make it look like she crushed Trump in the debates?
What is that poll? Never heard of them.
Betters are well aware of the election fraud factor.
Election Day 2016 was even worse - Hillary at 80%.
Please remember...
These numbers are NOT voter polls.
They are Gambling Money polls.
I always ask - did you know anyone who predicted Trump would win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016?
I did not know anyone who predicted that.
Michigan has no quarterback man they are rough
I stopped giving the betting markets the time of day when they had Hillary at 80% going into election day 2016. Contrary to popular belief the “big money” doesn’t have any insider knowledge or special prediction ability, they just go with whatever the media’s conventional wisdom is, even if that “conventional wisdom” is more just wishful thinking.
The other prediction markets are not even close to that.
If you think the betting markets are just based on wishful thinking, then there’s an opportunity here. You have positive expected value (in the long run, you’ll make money) if you identify which way the wishful thinking is going and bet the opposite way.
What do you think are fair odds on this election? Polymarket has the two candidates close to even. If you think one is actually a significant favorite, go ahead and bet it. (Smart gamblers might well bet on the candidate they dislike. Smart gamblers can distinguish between “What I think OUGHT to happen” and “What I think WILL happen.”)
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